OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Hi res models and the GFS have shifted back north and put twin cities in line for heavier snow. I love chaos at the 11th hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 ^ last minute N bump in a mild winter. Shocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 12z NAMs bring higher totals a bit further south into WI. Looking solid for 3-5" here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: ^ last minute N bump in a mild winter. Shocking! reality....the usual trends have been weak fades to the south...not saying that would be the case here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, Baum said: reality....the usual trends have been weak fades to the south...not saying that would be the case Not sure systems in December were weak fades.Seems we had several decently strong rainers come through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 36 minutes ago, madwx said: 12z NAMs bring higher totals a bit further south into WI. Looking solid for 3-5" here Best case scenario run here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 While tomorrow won't be the warning criteria event that everyone is craving in northern IL, it could be interesting for a few hours. Very steep lapse rates above 600 mb, possibly some small MUCAPE, and transient strong f-gen may yield convective snow rates in the quick moving WAA shield. Wouldn't be completely surprised if TSSN happened somewhere. The 12z CAMs all hint at this, but most notably the 12z HRRR, which has a wall of 40+ dBZ reflectivity. Duration will the biggest limiting factor, as these potential heavy rates may only last an hour or two, maybe a bit longer far north. I'm not saying tomorrow will, but sometimes these setups can overperform locally if you really max out the heavy rates for that 2-3 hour window. One such recent setup that comes to mind is February 17, 2018 (2-3", locally 4" in 3-4 hours with marginal surface temps). Throw in the gusty south winds and conditions could be legit for a couple hours, with a bonus that if it happens it'll be during the daytime. If something like the 12z HRRR pans out, might be worthy of snow squall warning consideration. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 41 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Not sure systems in December were weak fades.Seems we had several decently strong rainers come through December was dry as a bone...minus the system that scooted through St. Loius and Indy. In my mind, we have not had a true amped storm that wraps up in the winter season in almost two seasons. NAM looks better on this event it seems. Hoping for a 2-4" event...pipe dream I'm sure... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Ricky with the goods 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Ricky with the goodsTop 5 most interesting event of the winter if it pans out lolSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 22 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Top 5 most interesting event of the winter if it pans out lol Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Baum said: December was dry as a bone...minus the system that scooted through St. Loius and Indy. In my mind, we have not had a true amped storm that wraps up in the winter season in almost two seasons. NAM looks better on this event it seems. Hoping for a 2-4" event...pipe dream I'm sure... Your right that December was pretty dry. Late in the month Dec.27th-28th had 1.21" rain. Then on Jan.10th-11th another 1.11" with a small amt falling as 2.1" of snow but other than that meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 2.0" call for tom looking $$. Might be some lake enhancement east of the city towards Oshawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 57 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Top 5 most interesting event of the winter if it pans out lol Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk As a weather forecaster that has to be a depressing thing to say huh? :-) Top 5 event would be, maybe, possibly, a 3 hour burst of heavy snow rates?!?! Thanks for all the informative posts. Love the banter here (Go Alex!) but also nice to have someone posting with some insider/expert info! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 I would take RC's post farther and say that I wouldn't be surprised to see a period of blizzard/near blizzard conditions in the LOT cwa. You need 3 hours of meeting the visibility and gust criteria which may be tough to do at any given location, but nonetheless it should be pretty intense for a while. There is tremendous low level wind in the waa regime, a lot of which should have trouble mixing down but still enough for some 35+ mph gusts I think. Also will be curious to see what happens with the winds if that heavy burst of snow materializes... whether it enhances the gusts or not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 ^ no use bellyaching about a 2-3" potential in a winter like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 23 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I would take RC's post farther and say that I wouldn't be surprised to see a period of blizzard/near blizzard conditions in the LOT cwa. You need 3 hours of meeting the visibility and gust criteria which may be tough to do at any given location, but nonetheless it should be pretty intense for a while. There is tremendous low level wind in the waa regime, a lot of which should have trouble mixing down but still enough for some 35+ mph gusts I think. Also will be curious to see what happens with the winds if that heavy burst of snow materializes... whether it enhances the gusts or not. if this were the case LOT would have to consider a WWA, although I guess RC mentioned the rare SSA(snow squall advisory)...looks like Izzi is in the house. If anybody would pull the trigger on that it'd be him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 "THE HIGHEST SURFACE WINDS OVERLAP THE PERIOD MOST FAVORED FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES. THESE ELEMENTS COMBINED ARE WHY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH ALREADY TO INCLUDE 1/2SM SN MENTION IN THE TAF."...LOT 18Z Aviation discussion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Thinking about 1.5-2" here tomorrow. Don't see a whole lot of potential for major overperformance locally due to the short duration. I would put the ceiling around 3" and that would only be if everything breaks right and it rips extremely hard. Despite the weak surface low, there is a rather impressive llj with this to the tune of 50-70+ kts at 850 mb, which raises a bit of concern about precip changing from snow to something else faster than modeled. But the mod/hvy precip rates should help to hold back the warming at least for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 LOT went advisory for a couple counties bordering WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 NAM with continued trends of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Miss south stank 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Going with 1-2” across the metro followed by drizzle. The 2 hours of heavy snow rates mid day will make it fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 If we can manage a good hour of rippage out of this tomorrow morning I'll consider that a big win. Been so hard to get snow of any intensity to fall during the daytime this season. Models indicate a quick inch or so followed by drizzle/light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 HRRR has ~4" by 06z Monday in Toronto and still snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 39 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: HRRR has ~4" by 06z Monday in Toronto and still snowing. Good your making up for some lean years if I recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 Things trending upward here. Think there will be some good rates from about 6 am through 2 pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Probably too aggressive with gusts south of I-80 (not sure what kind of formula it uses) but south facing objects should get plastered pretty good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just got put under a Wsw. Mkx is saying 5-8 inches here which I would agree with. If we get more than 6 that will be our biggest storm so far. This should rebuild our snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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