wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Little bit of a difference.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 It seems like all system go for maybe an additional 4 to 8 type deal for BUF. 6-10 if everything breaks right. The 12z nam is correcting east from it's more amplified 00z and 06z runs and coming back towards the guidance pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Little bit of a difference.. Little bit? It cuts kbufs snow totals in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Little bit? It cuts kbufs snow totals in half I think he was being sarcastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 It was tongue and cheek lol Doesn't surprise me one bit..I mentioned it since yesterday, foreign models rarely lose lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: That's old school before huge amounts of non- balloon data assimilation. No measurable difference nowadays though the belief is still very prevalent in the community. This is obviously a qualitative assessment on my behalf but I still see the loopiest solutions on 6 & 18Z as a general observation. That hasn't changed in 30 years of observing model outputs. Maybe it's a just function of model uncertainty run-to-run and it just becomes more visible the more outputs you look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 3k not so pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It seems like all system go for maybe an additional 4 to 8 type deal for BUF. 6-10 if everything breaks right. The 12z nam is correcting east from it's more amplified 00z and 06z runs and coming back towards the guidance pack. Last night was pretty big over perfomer IMBY so I'll take the 6-7" additional and finish with a foot+. Would be largest storm of the year besides Novembers 10.2". Would be the first time in awhile where the top storms are all synoptic. My largest lake effect "event" was like 7". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 @OSUmetstud Any chance at some banding like we saw last night across southern erie county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: It was tongue and cheek lol Doesn't surprise me one bit..I mentioned it since yesterday, foreign models rarely lose lol I'll say this, for the system that affected TX and OK a couple days ago, the Euro was trounced by GFS for snowfall. Both had placement / axis of snowfall about right but EC was about 2x too high with snowfall, based on eyeballing CoCoRaHS reporting. It was a fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, Syrmax said: I'll say this, for the system that affected TX and OK a couple days ago, the Euro was trounced by GFS for snowfall. Both had placement / axis of snowfall about right but EC was about 2x too high with snowfall, based on eyeballing CoCoRaHS reporting. It was a fail. Gotcha.. I was going strictly track.. Precipitation amounts even more of a toss up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, Syrmax said: I'll say this, for the system that affected TX and OK a couple days ago, the Euro was trounced by GFS for snowfall. Both had placement / axis of snowfall about right but EC was about 2x too high with snowfall, based on eyeballing CoCoRaHS reporting. It was a fail. A friend from here got 7.5" in Midland Texas. He's a Met over there, a regular poster on here. He said banding resulted in higher totals over his house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 NMM short range Meso 12Z run is a huge shit. Very Euroish. Plenty cold. ARW2 is warmer and looks like the NAM. I would focus on the short range models for sure. At least that has worked for me in the past within 24 hours. They seem to best best with temp profiles and boundary layers plus best banding signatures. Lack of consensus on regarding thermal profiles is still evident between the models. Story of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 The model inconsistencies must be why KBUF isn't pulling the trigger on a WSW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Lots of moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 LP centers around 995 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: The model inconsistencies must be why KBUF isn't pulling the trigger on a WSW... Yeah it's not a slam dunk imo for 7 in 12 or 9 in 24 which is what warning criteria is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah it's not a slam dunk imo for 7 in 12 or 9 in 24 which is what warning criteria is. Hard for me to imagine a sub-980 LP won't produce the snowfall. I know it's not only about the pressure, but just seems strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Yeah odd run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah it's not a slam dunk imo for 7 in 12 or 9 in 24 which is what warning criteria is. Is mixing an issue? Seems the moisture synoptically and enhancement should be enough, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, vortmax said: Hard for me to imagine a sub-980 LP won't produce. I know it's not only about the pressure, but just seems strange. It's a wave ripping up an existing baroclinic zone so it's not as intense as the slp implies. It's not like a single low exploding to the south and tracking to the ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's a wave ripping up an existing baroclinic zone so it's not as intense as the slp implies. It's not like a single low exploding to the south and tracking to the ne. I don't remember, in my OSU met days, discussing these differences in synoptics. I would think an existing baroclinic (frontal) zone would provide additional moisture and lift, but maybe not the pronounced banding that a single LP would produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, vortmax said: I don't remember, in my OSU met days, discussing these differences in synoptics. I would think an existing baroclinic zone would provide additional moisture and lift, but maybe not the pronounced banding that a single LP would produce. It's a long wave trough with embedded areas of increased lift and vorticity. But i think if you're going to run a proper snowstorm you'd want a more solo shortwave that can throw more lift and precipitation northwest of the surface low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's a long wave trough with embedded areas of increased lift and vorticity. But i think if you're going to run a proper snowstorm you'd want a more solo shortwave that can throw more lift and precipitation northwest of the surface low. Like the blizzard that hit Newfoundland a couple of weeks ago? What was the lowest pressure in that cyclone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Like the blizzard that hit Newfoundland a couple of weeks ago? What was the lowest pressure in that cyclone? Yes, I was there lol. It was something like 955mb. But that was pushing up against a 1042 mb high over quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Yes, I was there lol. It was something like 955mb. But that was pushing up against a 1042 mb low over quebec. What Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: What I meant high. Sorry was there something else confusing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Roc Region definitely goes to warning. Enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I meant high. Sorry was there something else confusing? You said u were there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: You said u were there? Yeah that's where I live. I forecast the weather up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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