2020 Temperatures

[bdgwx]

ERA reported the warmest November on record by a wide margin.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-november-2020

IMHO this positions GISTEMP favorably to report the warmest year in their dataset. ERA couples reasonable well with GISTEMP.

[chubbs]

20 hours ago, bdgwx said:

ERA reported the warmest November on record by a wide margin.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-november-2020

IMHO this positions GISTEMP favorably to report the warmest year in their dataset. ERA couples reasonable well GISTEMP.

Yes, wouldn't be surprised if 2020 grabs the lead after Nov. Interestingly, 2010, another nina, also set a Nov GISS record before plunging in Dec, so may come down to the wire.

[LibertyBell]

For local regions, looks like NYC is in the lead with their warmest year on record, as are other cities in the northeast and Florida also (Miami, Orlando, Tampa).  NYC is getting perilously close to a 60 degree yearly temp average and Miami is approaching 80 for a yearly average....

[bdgwx]

For a fun perspective on a crowed-sourced prediction regarding whether 2020 will beat out 2016 as the warmest year in the GISTEMP record check out this betting market.

[bdgwx]

I was hoping NASA would release the November GISTEMP update today. They didn't. My model is predicting the November value to come in at +1.10C +/- 0.11. At +1.10C December only needs to come in at +0.75C for the annual mean to hit +1.02C which would top 2016's value of +1.01C rounded the nearest hundredth. With observations + GFS forecast through December 15th my model is predicting a value of +0.99C and if this cooling rate persists through the second of half December as well that takes us down to around +0.93C for a final annual mean of +1.03C. We'll see what happens.

[chubbs]

10 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I was hoping NASA would release the November GISTEMP update today. They didn't. My model is predicting the November value to come in at +1.10C +/- 0.06. At +1.10C December only needs to come in at +0.75C for the annual mean to hit +1.02C which would top 2016's value of +1.01C rounded the nearest hundredth. With observations + GFS forecast through December 15th my model is predicting a value of +0.99C and if this cooling rate persists through the second of half December as well that takes us down to around +0.93C for a final annual mean of +1.03C. We'll see what happens.

Could have gotten better than even money a couple of days ago on the site you linked above - I would have taken those odds

[bdgwx]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Could have gotten better than even money a couple of days ago on the site you linked above - I would have taken those odds

I got in at 35c a couple of weeks ago when my model was suggesting it should have been valued at 55c. My model is suggesting 80% odds now so there's not a lot of premium/discount to exploit anymore IMHO. I've found this to be a fun and challenging exercise. I've learned a lot in the last couple of weeks. I'm honing my statistical analysis skills (which are still subpar) and got the GISTEMP code running on my Ubuntu install. I also discovered that Nick Stokes' TempLS dataset which updates early makes a great predictor. He processes GHCN and ERSST directly.

[bdgwx]

GISTEMP reported +1.13C for November easily beating out November 2015 for the #1 spot.

[Vice-Regent]

[bdgwx]

2 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

That was a good read. Full text here.

There is some interesting commentary about how we've probably underestimated aerosol forcing. That's probably not a good thing since it means the warming may continue to accelerate as we clean up our aerosol emissions.

[chubbs]

8 hours ago, bdgwx said:

GISTEMP reported +1.13C for November easily beating out November 2015 for the #1 spot.

Here is the horserace chart. 2020 grabbed the lead. You're bet looks good.

[chubbs]

On 12/8/2020 at 12:51 PM, chubbs said:

Yes, wouldn't be surprised if 2020 grabs the lead after Nov. Interestingly, 2010, another nina, also set a Nov GISS record before plunging in Dec, so may come down to the wire.

Seeing a big Dec plunge this year as well in reanalysis - 2010 a good analog

[LibertyBell]

On 12/14/2020 at 4:54 PM, bdgwx said:

That was a good read. Full text here.

There is some interesting commentary about how we've probably underestimated aerosol forcing. That's probably not a good thing since it means the warming may continue to accelerate as we clean up our aerosol emissions.

maybe we shouldn't clean up our aerosol emissions then....there is a school of thought that blocking 1% of the sun's radiation would be an effective greenhouse effect blocker, in the near term anyway.

 

[ElizabethFargos]

It gets hotter and hotter every year...

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, ElizabethFargos said:

It gets hotter and hotter every year...

There are some fluctuations, but the long-term trend is warmer on account of the rising greenhouse gas forcing. 2021 might be somewhat cooler globally than 2020 on account of the La Niña, but it will very likely still rank among the warmest years on record.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There are some fluctuations, but the long-term trend is warmer on account of the rising greenhouse gas forcing. 2021 might be somewhat cooler globally than 2020 on account of the La Niña, but it will very likely still rank among the warmest years on record.

do you still think we're going get that bake off of a summer in 2021 Don?

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

do you still think we're going get that bake off of a summer in 2021 Don?

Probably. We’ve seen that in parts of the eastern U.S. following La Niña winters.

[tamarack]

Now that 2020 is in the books, some interesting (to me, anyway) changes in 30-year norms:
                            Temp                        Precip                            Snow
Location      81-10     91-20         81-10    91-20           81-10     91-20
NYC              55.41     55.72         50.01*  49.52           23.85     29.07
BDL              50.63     51.16         46.50    47.12           49.66     52.27    Snow data missing for nearly 5 years during 96-97 thru 01-02.
BOS              51.76     52.21         43.93    43.43           44.29     49.42
PWM            46.51     47.04         47.28    48.02           62.63     68.77
CAR              39.87     40.43         38.79    40.86         112.36   120.33
Farm**         42.28     42.99         48.37    49.29           86.51     91.57
Average       47.74     48.26         45.81    46.37           63.22     68.57

*  The 80.56" reported for NYC in 1983 is probably spurious and may have been tossed.  EWR had 22" lower precip that year.  If the EWR number is used instead of NYC, the NYC 81-10 drops to 49.28" and the 6-site average to 45.69".
** Farmington Maine co-op.  (Western foothills) 
 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Now that 2020 is in the books, some interesting (to me, anyway) changes in 30-year norms:
                            Temp                        Precip                            Snow
Location      81-10     91-20         81-10    91-20           81-10     91-20
NYC              55.41     55.72         50.01*  49.52           23.85     29.07
BDL              50.63     51.16         46.50    47.12           49.66     52.27    Snow data missing for nearly 5 years during 96-97 thru 01-02.
BOS              51.76     52.21         43.93    43.43           44.29     49.42
PWM            46.51     47.04         47.28    48.02           62.63     68.77
CAR              39.87     40.43         38.79    40.86         112.36   120.33
Farm**         42.28     42.99         48.37    49.29           86.51     91.57
Average       47.74     48.26         45.81    46.37           63.22     68.57

*  The 80.56" reported for NYC in 1983 is probably spurious and may have been tossed.  EWR had 22" lower precip that year.  If the EWR number is used instead of NYC, the NYC 81-10 drops to 49.28" and the 6-site average to 45.69".
** Farmington Maine co-op.  (Western foothills) 
 

The 1983 data was ultimately validated. I had emailed on this topic in the past. Here’s the response:

Back in late 2011 when we had a very wet year around here, WFO OKX, Eastern Region Headquarters and what was then NCDC held a teleconference to discuss the 1983 total for Central Park since it was left as a cliffhanger since 1983. It was decided after that call to accept the values as initially reported based on some additional data quality analysis and comparisons conducted with surrounding stations based on trends over many years before and since 1983. There never was any further follow up done by NCDC on those initial 1983 until this call took place in 2011 as was initially mentioned back in the mid 1980s.

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 1983 data was ultimately validated. I had emailed on this topic in the past. Here’s the response:

Back in late 2011 when we had a very wet year around here, WFO OKX, Eastern Region Headquarters and what was then NCDC held a teleconference to discuss the 1983 total for Central Park since it was left as a cliffhanger since 1983. It was decided after that call to accept the values as initially reported based on some additional data quality analysis and comparisons conducted with surrounding stations based on trends over many years before and since 1983. There never was any further follow up done by NCDC on those initial 1983 until this call took place in 2011 as was initially mentioned back in the mid 1980s.

Thanks for that info.  I looked up a number of NNJ sites relatively close to NYC plus LGA and JFK and found 1983 totals ranging from 60.8" at LGA to 71.1" at Morris Plains.  Maybe EWR was abnormally dry compared to the others , though none came within 10% of Central Park.

Of course, the idea behind my post was the increase of temperature and precipitation, and how much snow there was in 2011-20 compared to the terrible 1980s.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/5/2021 at 3:30 PM, tamarack said:

Thanks for that info.  I looked up a number of NNJ sites relatively close to NYC plus LGA and JFK and found 1983 totals ranging from 60.8" at LGA to 71.1" at Morris Plains.  Maybe EWR was abnormally dry compared to the others , though none came within 10% of Central Park.

Of course, the idea behind my post was the increase of temperature and precipitation, and how much snow there was in 2011-20 compared to the terrible 1980s.

Having lived through the 70s, 80s and 90s, the climate has radically changed from then to now both in terms of temps and precip (should add humidity levels too).  Allergy levels are much worse and so is air quality.

[bdgwx]

Copernicus released their final monthly report for 2020.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-december-2020

2020 is the second warmest year in their record after 2016.

[chubbs]

[rclab]

On 1/8/2021 at 11:36 PM, bdgwx said:

Copernicus released their final monthly report for 2020.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-december-2020

2020 is the second warmest year in their record after 2016.

Thank you for the article. My knowledge, compared to the median of forum members is limited. I always remember “ the atmosphere sesks  balance” being drummed into my head.  This was often given as a basic reason for storm development. As the change accelerates I often wonder what form the potential and/or eventual balancing will take. As always.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/11/2021 at 9:22 AM, rclab said:

Thank you for the article. My knowledge, compared to the median of forum members is limited. I always remember “ the atmosphere sesks  balance” being drummed into my head.  This was often given as a basic reason for storm development. As the change accelerates I often wonder what form the potential and/or eventual balancing will take. As always.

Yep, this is called entropy and it applies all over the universe.

 

[rclab]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, this is called entropy and it applies all over the universe.

 

I don’t believe that word has ever been aligned with a happy ending or for that matter has ever been reversed. As always ....

[bdgwx]

2020 has eclipsed 2016 as the warmest year in the GISS record strictly speaking. But it was of the thinnest of margins and qualifies as a statistical tie.

[bdgwx]

Berkeley Earth released their 2020 annual report. 2020 was the second warmest year behind 2016.

http://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2020/

[chubbs]

2 hours ago, bdgwx said:

2020 has eclipsed 2016 as the warmest year in the GISS record strictly speaking. But it was of the thinnest of margins and qualifies as a statistical tie.

Per my #: 1.022 vs 1.018, a difference that could disappear in future updates. Did you collect your bet?

[bdgwx]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Per my #: 1.022 vs 1.018, a difference that could disappear in future updates. Did you collect your bet?

Yes I did. It was pretty nuanced though. The rules said 2020 had to exceed 2016 by 0.01 after rounding to 2 decimal places. The quirk was that 2016 had been getting reported as 1.01. But I (along with several other people) had figured out that the recent addition of observations into the GHCN repository was going to likely flip 2016 back to 1.02. And my model had predicted that GISS would revise Nov down to 1.11 and report 0.83 for Dec. GISS officially reported 1.11 and 0.81 respectively so I had already seen the 2020 round down to 1.02 coming as well. I exploited that situation as well. In the end I learned a lot from this exercise. First...I learned that prediction markets aren't that good. Second...I learned a lot of details about GHCN, ERSST, how the GISTEMP code works, and how to create a model for predicting GISS updates with publicly available information with up to 4 weeks lead time. It was really fun.

BTW...your comment above about 2010 being a good analog to 2020 kept me on my guard