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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Maine always wins

Frustrating 

Or, climo usually wins.  ;)  
Current snow total is 8.5" BN for the date, and unless something serious pops between now and May, this will be just the 2nd winter in 50+ years (including some back when I lived in NNJ) that failed to produce a snowfall greater than 7".  Just a garden-variety BN winter here, not a major ratter like in the MA.

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Yeah ...I can certainly understand why the winter weather enthusiast may be particularly disenchanted this morning... ha. 

I mentioned this yesterday ..day before, but the idea for the last week of Feb into early March was for two fold, pattern relaxation + plausible climate expression for season ending blocking.

It's hard to say if that's absolutely impossible in total; if it took place, we still would run through a two to three week period where improved cold cyclone performance chances and so forth. But the overnight runs et al seem to really go out of their way to make that vision less likely to occur.  The relaxation part is much higher confidence... There is a reduction in the isohypses counts from middle Canada to the Gulf of Mexico latitudes over our side of the hemisphere, but what is interesting in a not so enjoyable way to the cinema seeker ( heh ), is that the pattern is still a giant piece of utter shit.  It's really just taking the same R-wave distribution, and relaxing it; but the vestigial structure is unchanging, and is a distribution that is really pretty awful.

It's amazing to get an entire winter with no pattern evolution.  That's a first for me.  Since that early event in Dec, as far as I can surmise ...the pattern has not deviated - it relaxed for 10 or so days a month ago, but the underpinning look has not changed.  interesting...

In any case, the American ( cdc and cpc ) have never shown a good teleconnector spread since Dec btw - a point I've also made at times ( and ignored at times...) the whole way.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Lava and I found the snow

056768F1-FE97-4EB8-8106-236410B8D79A.jpeg

Great picture of you guys!!  Enjoy the riding and the winter feel/look, nothing like it!    It’s DEEP Winter out that way, and up north of there too.

 

Ill be going up to Sinclair/St Agatha a week from Thursday for a 4 day trip; And that’ll wrap up my season, so hope we hit it right. 

 

RIDE SAFE guys. 

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