February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No

not even close 

it just atrophies, disappears 

and if you eat worse at the time you stop lifting well then that’s why you “turn” to Jello

, or because when many stop exercising with weights (that hour of exercise that burnt 4-500 Calories) is now 400-500 calories that you are now storing - if you are sitting on your butt 

Muscle has never turned into fat or vice versa 

so if someone lifted heavily and then stopped and did cardio for like 2-3 years  w zero lifting  they would look like Rev 

I always laugh at, "thoughts by Kev"

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trended further west from 00z even....gonna have to come back the other way for snowier solutions even in NNE.

This should just Cap off the NH kids vacation  week 

[Ginx snewx]

Amazing revelations here. Bet no one knew exercise was good for you. 

[dryslot]

No surprise those weaker lows are the ones that are east.

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trended further west from 00z even....gonna have to come back the other way for snowier solutions even in NNE.

There is again a big wedge and its possible that the Ens are indicating surface reflections off the MA. Positive take is building blocking high across Canada. With the seasonal trend being weaker flatter perhaps this evolves similar to the persistent pattern. Berks Norh to NNE snowstorm 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There is again a big wedge and its possible that the Ens are indicating surface reflections off the MA. Positive take is building blocking high across Canada. With the seasonal trend being weaker flatter perhaps this evolves similar to the persistent pattern. Berks Norh to NNE snowstorm 

Still a long ways out...plenty of time for large shifts.

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No

not even close 

it just atrophies, disappears 

and if you eat worse at the time you stop lifting well then that’s why you “turn” to Jello

, or because when many stop exercising with weights (that hour of exercise that burnt 4-500 Calories) is now 400-500 calories that you are now storing - if you are sitting on your butt 

Muscle has never turned into fat or vice versa 

so if someone lifted heavily and then stopped and did cardio for like 2-3 years  w zero lifting  they would look like Rev ...”lean”

I guess my point was many weight lifters do little or no running. Running doesn’t mean doing a fake mile or two on a treadmill when they have time .It means getting outside and running at least several miles , several times a week. It’s why you see so many hefty folks. Used to lift or maybe still do, but Father Time and diet and lack of exercise catches up. Everytime 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

98.6F average body temp maybe was false.  
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/video/studies-new-normal-human-body-temperature-may-be-975-degrees-fahrenheit/vp-BBYPHEs

 

Makes sense to me, as that's where I usually land and I'm fairly warm-blooded - short-sleeved shirt today and -20 or slightly colder.  Only time I go with long sleeves is when I'm in the woods during the cold seasons.  Used to be even more cold tolerant before taking a beta blocker for high BP - dropped my pulse from about 60 to low 50s.

The almost always too warm GFS pulled a fast one this morning, dropping 2/27-28 temps at 2m and H9 by about 10F.  Verbatim we'd get ZR/IP to SN.  Still beyond 100 and more back and forth to come.

[jbenedet]

With the day 6 event, I’d def be hedging west and intense right now. The shortwave traversing the Pacific Northwest around hr 60 continues to look deep on guidance early on...The PNA ridge looks very amped in this setup as well. In terms of snow I think we want to be looking for triple point opportunities or an early cut-off bc the synoptic track appears unfavorable, barring significant changes. Interior NNE can have significant snow in almost any given situation this time of the year, so mostly wet or mostly white is still very much up in the air in those parts and will be for some time...

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let em go. It’s turned to angry nastiness 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you stop lifting.Guess what.  The muscle turns to jello

No it doesn't...you gain body fat when you burn less calories than you consume. I don't plan on stopping lifting anytime soon, anywaylol

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess my point was many weight lifters do little or no running. Running doesn’t mean doing a fake mile or two on a treadmill when they have time .It means getting outside and running at least several miles , several times a week. It’s why you see so many hefty folks. Used to lift or maybe still do, but Father Time and diet and lack of exercise catches up. Everytime 

I agree both are optimal...I lift and do cardio 3x week.

[CoastalWx]

My cardio will consist of running away as fast as I can from this winter. 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

My cardio will consist of running away as fast as I can from this winter. 

And this thread lol

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My cardio will consist of running away as fast as I can from this winter. 

I haven’t even had to fill up gas can for snowblower. Still have gas in it from fall mowing . As sad as it gets lol

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess my point was many weight lifters do little or no running. Running doesn’t mean doing a fake mile or two on a treadmill when they have time .It means getting outside and running at least several miles , several times a week. It’s why you see so many hefty folks. Used to lift or maybe still do, but Father Time and diet and lack of exercise catches up. Everytime 

Wonder what beer does

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I haven’t even had to fill up gas can for snowblower. Still have gas in it from fall mowing . As sad as it gets lol

I’ve used it twice. 

[Lava Rock]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess my point was many weight lifters do little or no running. Running doesn’t mean doing a fake mile or two on a treadmill when they have time .It means getting outside and running at least several miles , several times a week. It’s why you see so many hefty folks. Used to lift or maybe still do, but Father Time and diet and lack of exercise catches up. Everytime 

I lift and cycle. Recently went to a naturopath. At 6'1", 155lbs, body fat is only 8%. They say with every decade, a man should gain ~1-3% body fat. Ain't happening for me. My %fat in college was 12%, no doubt due to crappy eating and beer. I'm going backwards. He said metabolically I am an anorexic. I try to eat more, but my metabolism just ends up finding it's equilibrium. I'd love to put on 10lbs, but it won't happen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I lift and cycle. Recently went to a naturopath. At 6'1", 155lbs, body fat is only 8%. They say with every decade, a man should gain ~1-3% body fat. Ain't happening for me. My %fat in college was 12%, no doubt due to crappy eating and beer. I'm going backwards. He said metabolically I am an anorexic. I try to eat more, but my metabolism just ends up finding it's equilibrium. I'd love to put on 10lbs, but it won't happen.

I'm 5'7" and 211lbs...not lean by an stretch, but in perfect health with a 34"-36" waist.

[weatherwiz]

Most of my cardio comes during the summer when I'm running between inside and outside when t'storms are coming 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

With the day 6 event, I’d def be hedging west and intense right now. The shortwave traversing the Pacific Northwest around hr 60 continues to look deep on guidance early on...The PNA ridge looks very amped in this setup as well. In terms of snow I think we want to be looking for triple point opportunities or an early cut-off bc the synoptic track appears unfavorable, barring significant changes. Interior NNE can have significant snow in almost any given situation this time of the year, so mostly wet or mostly white is still very much up in the air in those parts and will be for some time...

You're reasoning after the bold aside for a moment ... the seasonal trend is a tough metric to bear at this point.  It's really unrelenting.  What makes it downright - dare we say ... - "outre" at this point, is that it is doing that west bias thing regardless of any kind of pattern augmentation/permuation that is more or less readily observable.  But, that said, ...the underlying "pattern" really hasn't deviate in my estimation - there have been changes in the gradient at times... But the r-wave distribution ( space and in time...) really hasn't deviated since that gig in earlier December. 

I mentioned a couple days ago ..that I thought the end of this month into the first couple weeks of March had a chance to really see that pattern change ... heh, about half that expectation is currently being met in the bevy of recent runs - particularly the overnight suite showed really coherently by as near as D4 ... about 2 to 3 isohypsotic reduction from the lower latitudes to the 60th parallel over our side of the hemisphere.   That means the geopotential gradient has slacked off by early next week ... And with that, the velocities lower everywhere, ...the southern stream has a chance to conserve S/W mechanical wave spacing without getting crushed and sheared into oblivion because the planetary torque isn't already used up in the PV from hell!  ...and the AO is falling as an index measure of that happening... 

That's all well and good, but what stands out to me about the overnight runs is that the longitude position the ridges and troughs ( R-wave distribution in space and time ) are unchanged. They just have less wind and gradient flowing around the ups and lows.   So all this means, stronger storms ...moving slower, but probably running along the same cyclonic conveyors and well..guess what, that's exactly what we are left with next week. The western ridge is too far west to support a fuller Miller B realization - from what I see...  And with the velocities ( ambiently) lowered, there is less "stretching" to compensate a less than optimal ridge-trough long-wave structure... 

It's like - hate to say ... - it's a believable D6/7 butt-bangin' as there's less theoretical reasons to argue against it. If that ridge in the west bumps closer to the front Range longitudes... then we'll talk. But if anchors over the western cordillera or even west coast like it is in the means, this low probably corrects even more west in future guidance.  

There is one caveat here:  I'm not sure the N/stream is being handled right... I could almost see this thing correcting toward an early Chicago curl as a deep low that then rots and fills over two days spitting lows that run out south of a failed warm frontal cool sector that's "might" be corrected toward greater arming surface pressure over Ontario... That could satisfy the mid latitude R-wave argument that way, too -

[Lava Rock]

I'm curious about temp difference at similar elevations. This morning we bottomed at 1.8F. We're at 720'. On my way to work, at top of Spiller Hill, 696', temp is -6F. How come? I can't imagine 24' difference in elev would equate to ~8F diff. Meanwhile at 320' (bottom of Spiller) it was -10F, which is expected as it's a shallow boggy area.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My cardio will consist of running away as fast as I can from this winter. 

Ha ahahaha... 

word

In my own proclivities to lament the futility of winter as February's age on are only new to new users, I can honestly say, if this all went 82 F until next October 10th, I couldn't be happier.  I mean, don't folks get enough abuse?  haha... But I'm still not sold that we won't get a cruel reminder here a couple of times over the next three weeks - it looks shaky now, but I feel my arguments around late season climo for blocking is clad enough that with an AO that is easing down, there's possibilities. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Most of my cardio comes during the summer when I'm running between inside and outside when t'storms are coming 

So once or twice a year?

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I'm curious about temp difference at similar elevations. This morning we bottomed at 1.8F. We're at 720'. On my way to work, at top of Spiller Hill, 696', temp is -6F. How come? I can't imagine 24' difference in elev would equate to ~8F diff. Meanwhile at 320' (bottom of Spiller) it was -10F, which is expected as it's a shallow boggy area.

That's plenty... Under the right conditions, sure it is. 

In fact, routinely on radiatively cold mornings at mi casa ... I leave the driveway in the valley at dawn ...it may be 22 F on the dash therm, and as I wend my way through Devens...the elevation changes by 30 or 40 feet, and it'll be 27 F... then, back down to 23 F at the Nashua River ...sometimes with ground fog, then back to 31 F out west toward 190 S.

[dendrite]

Yeah...he may have been just high enough to be a little mixed with the sharp drop off of the inversion below him. Or, of course, the lava lawn. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ahahaha... 

word

In my own proclivities to lament the futility of winter as February's age on are only new to new users, I can honestly say, if this all went 82 F until next October 10th, I couldn't be happier.  I mean, don't folks get enough abuse?  haha... But I'm still not sold that we won't get a cruel reminder here a couple of times over the next three weeks - it looks shaky now, but I feel my arguments around late season climo for blocking is clad enough that with an AO that is easing down, there's possibilities. 

I wouldn't mind snow/cold into April...I mean the last time that happened we had a monster severe wx outbreak only a month later. 2018 was wild...I think we even had snow showers down in Danbury around mid-April.

I've always wondered this (I think I kinda had done some research with this a while back) but I would think we stand a better chance of having an active/early start to convective season if we're colder deeper into spring. 

[Lava Rock]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's plenty... Under the right conditions, sure it is. 

In fact, routinely on radiatively cold mornings at mi casa ... I leave the driveway in the valley at dawn ...it may be 22 F on the dash therm, and as I wend my way through Devens...the elevation changes by 30 or 40 feet, and it'll be 27 F... then, back down to 23 F at the Nashua River ...sometimes with ground fog, then back to 31 F out west toward 190 S.

thanks. I was thinking my Davis temp sensor was off. It's an old unit (16yr)

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm 5'7" and 211lbs...not lean by an stretch, but in perfect health with a 34"-36" waist.

The bigger question is...fanny size?

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wouldn't mind snow/cold into April...I mean the last time that happened we had a monster severe wx outbreak only a month later. 2018 was wild...I think we even had snow showers down in Danbury around mid-April.

I've always wondered this (I think I kinda had done some research with this a while back) but I would think we stand a better chance of having an active/early start to convective season if we're colder deeper into spring. 

Heh... no thanks.  

More power to you  but ... we can have a severe rare events here regardless - I realize you're being partially tongue-in-cheek, but goes without saying, snowing on April 7 doesn't mean anything to a lightning bold on May 10 ... 

Unfortunately, there is no 'want' or fulfillment therein in this climate up here.  We kind of have a "geological tuck" circumstance over eastern N/A really... Particularly N of the Va Capes (roughly) and all over eastern Canada and the Maritimes down through New England. The normal torque budget of the wind has a built in anti-cyclonic curl that's always there, ... offering a folding force that wants the flow to bend N ... and NE at least excuse.  It's probably why we BD so frequently here... we can drill it into small scale causality...and be right - but technically, that foundation is sort of there because the prevailing N-hemispheric westerlies naturally want to turn anti-cyclonically around the continents... The have the same issue in eastern Asia/Japan, too... The flows in these regions rise up (tendency ) in latitude as they encounter the land, then...around a flattish arc and that tendency then descends upon exit.  SO anything that happens inside there has that constructive (destructive) interference going on relative to the small details taking place.   They don't backdoor in Seattle or San Francisco nearly as frequently for a reason...