Allsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: It got marginally better....esp after the 3/7-8 storm....but that pattern was almost purely Atlantic....the 3/21 storm probably had the best PAC of the 4 storms, but that isn't saying much. Here's a GFS loop of the pattern right as the 3/2 storm is ending. Look at how marginal the airmass is even in the 3/8 storm. But the block forced the track underneath us. That storm was already negatively tilted out in the western plains....it probably goes through lake superior without the blocking. You can see how the marginal cold is being supplied from the north in Quebec. Not really from central Canada via an EPO/PNA dump. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20180303/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20180303/MRF_0z/mrfloop2.html Great Memory and maps! Thinking back now 3/21 was probably the coldest one of the bunch down here. And yes, I would never think this storm would slide underneath us with that look out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 ...North Carolina is going to end the month with more more snow than I had. This is f*cking awful. What a forgetful season this has been. I just saw Ryan post the Spring outlook with AN normal temps and precip. F*CK IT... BRING ON THE Above normal (but still not warm enough to do any enjoyable SH*T outside), DAMP SPRING and the mOsQUiTos! Might as well prepare for the Kevin endorsed dews while we're at it. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Euro setting up a massive rain storm next week....same old story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: How high do we go next Wed on the GFS? Not a DSD, but there's quite a bit of dry midlevel air. If we can keep from being inverted and pop some late Feb sun maybe we pull a 60F inland? Euro has low 40s for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Euro is a coastal runner for the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Spanks45 said: Euro setting up a massive rain storm next week....same old story Yep but further east than the 0z run and gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 That's a crazy dynamic system on the Euro....if baroclinic zone can set up a little further east, then that would get many into some fun. Not expecting it right now....but we'll see what it look like on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro has low 40s for you Way too early but I'll take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Roy warming his vocal cords up.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The snowers done got Kemba’d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The apoplexy in here is delicious ... The storm next week ...fwiw and whomever is lucid enough to read this, really isn't part of the same pattern advertisement slated for more that last week of the month into the first week or two of March. This one wasn't ever really supposed to be - although, I will admit that the underlying 'canvas' has a relaxing look already, so it may be a transition type of thing. There's that.. but also, adding to uncertainty is the double-wave total structure of that evolution. There's some interference going on there ... If the space between them opens up a bit more, than we get more cold draining in behind the lead and sets table with more BL inhibition and forcing toward the coast eventually evolves. Or, it needs to dampen out more, and let the high in Canada get us to the same BL conditioning that way. This 12z run decides to play it both directions...running up the earlier wave too close in time with the following, such that BL is scoured out and the follow-up system then has less forcing and ends up west in total. If all that were not enough... discussing scenarios over a D6/7 event is a bit of a pop-cycle headache anyway. But that's why hands are thrown - because of the utter certainty at D6/7, right? haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...I'm not disputing Archambault events....we all know they exist. But here's a quick list of larger storms that had no phase change in a -NAO pattern off the top of my head in the past decade or so: Both March 2018 storms 3/8/13 12/26/10 All the Feb 2010 storms Both big dogs in Jan 2011 were phase change events....but that month was very negative...briefly going positive just after the storms. That negative baseline was really important though....especially for 1/12/11. I didn't put anything from 2015 on there since we never had a negative NAO....stayed positive. Exactly....tougher to avail of a phase change going from +1 to +3 NAO, or vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 What a dung winter. We’re almost beyond this. 2.8” for Feb 4” for Jan Max temp: 70F (Jan 12th) Pretty good for peak winter climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's a crazy dynamic system on the Euro....if baroclinic zone can set up a little further east, then that would get many into some fun. Not expecting it right now....but we'll see what it look like on Sunday. Too bad....be nice to get just one good one, then let it end for good this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I’ll take a day in the 50s, my driveway is a wreck from that slop storm Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 After four months of November, a little winter would be a nice change of pace before we kick start those 70's and 80's with dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Don't look at the euro snowmap The coast gets shafted while the interior and the south gets more snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 50 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: What a dung winter. We’re almost beyond this. 2.8” for Feb 4” for Jan Max temp: 70F (Jan 12th) Pretty good for peak winter climo. Looked at those numbers and thought to myself, “that sounds a lot like winter in the Carolinas...” Funny thing is, by this time tomorrow ~1/4 of NC will have received about as much snowfall as you through 2/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drop the Trough Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Don't look at the euro snowmap The coast gets shafted while the interior and the south gets more snow. you should shart (not a typo) a storm thread for the 27-28th. Let's stop worshiping models every six hours and put our collective thinking caps on....let's use knowledge and intelligence to make some ballsy calls instead of just posting some what some fantasy model from 200+ hours out is saying. Let's bang out some projected snowfall/rainfall maps from templates then participate and embrace constructive dialogue! Yes, YES! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Cold Miser said: ...Would people call "bull sh*t" on me if I said that I was satisfied with this winter because the first few weeks of December were good? I'm more satisfied than most... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Don't look at the euro snowmap The coast gets shafted while the interior and the south gets more snow. Start the Thread Anthony....just do it. Maybe you change the MoJo for the season. Do It!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I may be in the minority, but I would take my 19" event in Dec over a season with more seasonal snowfall and no huge events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I may be in the minority, but I would take my 19" event in Dec over a season with more seasonal snowfall and no huge events. A holiday season KU is always enjoyable. We just missed out on that one here. About 5” at the tail end when it finally changed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 47 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Don't look at the euro snowmap The coast gets shafted while the interior and the south gets more snow. I'll post pics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Euro shifted the total 00z solution E by some 300 miles ... Jesus... lost on y'all also, the incredible 'subsume phase' synoptic evolution and at this range... Heh, it's lecturing a empty room at this point I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euro shifted the total 00z solution E by some 300 miles ... Jesus... lost on y'all also, the incredible 'subsume phase' synoptic evolution and at this range... Heh, it's lecturing a empty room at this point I guess I'm listening...I always enjoyed an exciting lecture by a good prof. I reacted initially with regards to another dynamic system leaving us on the warm/rainy side as has been everytime since early December. However, assuming the players are a bit different this time around, I guess there is room for some improvement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Pretty sure we mentioned the shift east? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Wait....was this for next week event? If so , I thought the "possible change" was to begin around the 28-29th?, I thought we were all on board for next event too warm anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euro shifted the total 00z solution E by some 300 miles ... Jesus... lost on y'all also, the incredible 'subsume phase' synoptic evolution and at this range... Heh, it's lecturing a empty room at this point I guess I'm just not really interested in a system that is 7 days out. It's definitely possible it turns into a legit snow threat....but I'm waiting until at least Saturday night or Sunday to start thinking seriously about it. But yeah....I've mentioned previously that this storm could produce if things line up....it has some amazing dynamics with it. But I'm waiting until we're closer to the 100 hour mark before really analyzing the details if it is still even a viable threat by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 32 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: A holiday season KU is always enjoyable. We just missed out on that one here. About 5” at the tail end when it finally changed over. Yea, if I hadn't gotten a KU there, then this would have been right on par with the all-time turds, like 1995, 2002, 2012, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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