MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Tuesday? Wasn't that supposed to be rain or do you mean Thursday? Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Thursday I wouldn't say it's an inland Runner. It's running up and just over Southeastern Connecticut into Southeastern Mass. But isn't that better than it was showing yesterday where was it even further? Damn, can't take all you negative Nellies. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: I would say it's an inland Runner. It's running up and just over Southeastern Connecticut into Southeastern Mass. But isn't that better than it was showing yesterday where was it even further? Damn, can't take all you negative Nellies. Lol What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I think when the month averages negative, we have a better shot of having the nuanced timing work out. Possibly unless the neg values are during dry periods or super intense. You can have big snows in a positive with a transient that then develops a strong NAO with a dry period. Suffice to say you need to dig deeper when doing correlation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What? I fix what I wrote. I meant to say I wouldn't. But that was from the run last night not today's 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Possibly unless the neg values are during dry periods or super intense. You can have big snows in a positive with a transient that then develops a strong NAO with a dry period. Suffice to say you need to dig deeper when doing correlation Yea, I get that, but I'd rather negative than positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I get that, but I'd rather negative than positive. Yep me too. Without looking at the dailies, composite monthly negative will average more snow than composite monthly positive. Obviously if you can, you want to look at more detail....but if all we can choose from are monthly composites, I'll take the negative all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is an inland runner for next week. Another storm going down the drain. Ya cuz that model performs so well......that model is worst of all..you know that; plus it's an OP run that's a week away on top of it. Why the avatar change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep me too. Without looking at the dailies, composite monthly negative will average more snow than composite monthly positive. Obviously if you can, you want to look at more detail....but if all we can choose from are monthly composites, I'll take the negative all day long. As has been proven by researchers the biggest most prolific storms occur during phase changes. Piddly nickle and dimes make up the majority of Neggie storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty sure your reading comprehension is fuked It's always Fuked....nothing new there. He's trying to spin this into that now, so that he can say he was right when March 56 doesn't work out. Same ol Same ol in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: As has been proven by researchers the biggest most prolific storms occur during phase changes. Piddly nickle and dimes make up the majority of Neggie storms. This!!! It would be freaking awesome if someone who had the skill really divulged into the data and did some extensive research. For example, looking at periods where a phase change occurred and determining the percentages a storm occurred during a phase change...or a transition period. Or how many storms producing > "x" amount of snow (choosing climate locations for data source) occurred when positive or negative....and just so forth. The list can go and go. All of these results can be used to vastly increase medium/long range forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It's always Fuked....nothing new there. He's trying to spin this into that now, so that he can say he was right when March 56 doesn't work out. Same ol Same ol in Tolland. Walk on home boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Walk on home boy LOL....you know you're reading comprehension sucks..just admit it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: As has been proven by researchers the biggest most prolific storms occur during phase changes. Piddly nickle and dimes make up the majority of Neggie storms. We don’t need a super storm. But a good ridge near the Davis straits is good For cold and storm tracks. Especially March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We don’t need a super storm. But a good ridge near the Davis straits is good For cold and storm tracks. Especially March. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 March 18 overall averaged negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: March 18 overall averaged negative. Yes we said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: March 18 showed why NAO helps a lot. When people reference monthly values they fail to acknowledge those dailies where transient neg NAO is in place. Dailies are more important than a monthly average. It's all about timing. Having blocking and cold air drain and bingo. Scoots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Scoots I feel like you were trying to say otherwise in previous posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: We don’t need a super storm. But a good ridge near the Davis straits is good For cold and storm tracks. Especially March. Yeah...I'm not disputing Archambault events....we all know they exist. But here's a quick list of larger storms that had no phase change in a -NAO pattern off the top of my head in the past decade or so: Both March 2018 storms 3/8/13 12/26/10 All the Feb 2010 storms Both big dogs in Jan 2011 were phase change events....but that month was very negative...briefly going positive just after the storms. That negative baseline was really important though....especially for 1/12/11. I didn't put anything from 2015 on there since we never had a negative NAO....stayed positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya cuz that model performs so well......that model is worst of all..you know that; plus it's an OP run that's a week away on top of it. Why the avatar change? Winter's over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Winter's over Good chance in NYC....although to be fair, it never arrived there this year. We had some fun in December in SNE but garbage since then. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like you were trying to say otherwise in previous posts. No just that most of the dominate storms of our life are mostly phase change or transient blocks. Of course Neg Nao can produce and everything is better than strong positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 How high do we go next Wed on the GFS? Not a DSD, but there's quite a bit of dry midlevel air. If we can keep from being inverted and pop some late Feb sun maybe we pull a 60F inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Euro much more aggressive in the SE. Caved a bit. Looks like half of NAM twice Euro was the best 2 day forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Winter's over Welcome to what most rational people have known since December 22. Now you’re left with 2 broken ankles and a pair of bloody high tops 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 ...Would people call "bull sh*t" on me if I said that I was satisfied with this winter because the first few weeks of December were good? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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