tamarack Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Well I think GYX was like 1” above average. Lol. It’s been pretty warm too so not great for really deep pack. Thru yesterday GYX was 0.6" AN, which means they're probably dead on their norms today. (And BN tomorrow ) CAR's 97" is 129% of their average thru 2/19, I'm at 88% (data back only thru 98-99), and I'd guess the rest of the Maineiacs on the snow table are a bit AN.. Nice rainstorm on the gfs for next week. Inland runner. That model has over-warmed nearly every precip event since New Year's. The op run for 12z Tuesday had Augusta reaching upper 30s with snow-to-rain. Only missed by about 15° w/o a sniff of RA, not bad for the last run before flakes arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Well its definitely a totally different pattern days 8 thru 14 I could def buy a favorable 5-6 day period seems like most people get hooked on the wish of some “flip” that sticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: March '18 had that -PNA, -NAO combo if I recall rightly. Cold air was a little hard to come by, but it certainly worked out for plenty of folks here. Feb was positive NAO but a transient block was in place 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, tamarack said: Thru yesterday GYX was 0.6" AN, which means they're probably dead on their norms today. (And BN tomorrow ) CAR's 97" is 129% of their average thru 2/19, I'm at 88% (data back only thru 98-99), and I'd guess the rest of the Maineiacs on the snow table are a bit AN.. Nice rainstorm on the gfs for next week. Inland runner. That model has over-warmed nearly every precip event since New Year's. The op run for 12z Tuesday had Augusta reaching upper 30s with snow-to-rain. Only missed by about 15° w/o a sniff of RA, not bad for the last run before flakes arrived. That is a truly pathetic performance for a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya you could be right? Maybe Will remembers? I was thinking there wasn't much blocking for that one...but again I could be completely mistaken? Feb 2013 did not have big Atlantic blocking...it had a well-timed 50/50 low though which kind of acts as a transient block. There was some east-based iceland ridging, but overall it was pretty pedestrian. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Feb was positive NAO but a transient block was in place Transient blocks can work wonders 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Feb was positive NAO but a transient block was in place Just now, ORH_wxman said: Feb 2013 did not have big Atlantic blocking...it had a well-timed 50/50 low though which kind of acts as a transient block. There was some east-based iceland ridging, but overall it was pretty pedestrian. This is something which is more important (IMO) then just having a flat out -NAO in place for an extended period. Would much rather see the NAO undergoing transition (preferably positive to negative) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Transient blocks can work wonders Exactly. MARCH 2018 was negative and it was the only negative month in a sea of positive. Much of 2015 was transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is something which is more important (IMO) then just having a flat out -NAO in place for an extended period. Would much rather see the NAO undergoing transition (preferably positive to negative) March 18 showed why NAO helps a lot. When people reference monthly values they fail to acknowledge those dailies where transient neg NAO is in place. Dailies are more important than a monthly average. It's all about timing. Having blocking and cold air drain and bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: March 18 showed why NAO helps a lot. When people reference monthly values they fail to acknowledge those dailies where transient neg NAO is in place. Dailies are more important than a monthly average. It's all about timing. Having blocking and cold air drain and bingo. EXACTLY!!! I'm not a fan of just having a monthly averaged value...and to extend on this not a big fan of just looking at the averaged 500 pattern for the month either. You aren't going to capture any transition periods and it's the transition periods where a weather event is likely to occur. This is precisely I would love to use the daily data and construct a weekly/bi-weekly index but that will never happen. Unless I just do it simply and take 7 and 14-days worth of values, add them, then divide by the period (7 or 14 days) but that isn't going to be accurate...I don't think. then with these values can further analyze height anomalies, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: EXACTLY!!! I'm not a fan of just having a monthly averaged value...and to extend on this not a big fan of just looking at the averaged 500 pattern for the month either. You aren't going to capture any transition periods and it's the transition periods where a weather event is likely to occur. This is precisely I would love to use the daily data and construct a weekly/bi-weekly index but that will never happen. Unless I just do it simply and take 7 and 14-days worth of values, add them, then divide by the period (7 or 14 days) but that isn't going to be accurate...I don't think. then with these values can further analyze height anomalies, etc. X 1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Transient blocks work...but you usually need an underlying good pattern to begin with....2015 was so ridiculously good in the PAC...a couple of our big dog storms we had no transient block at all but it didn't matter. Even 2013 had a perfectly timed ridge over the Dakotas. March 2018 was a legit monster NAO block that kept regenerating....that was def not transient. You obviously want to ebb and flow a bit, but the consistency of it through the month is what allowed us to have 4 major storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Transient blocks work...but you usually need an underlying good pattern to begin with....2015 was so ridiculously good in the PAC...a couple of our big dog storms we had no transient block at all but it didn't matter. Even 2013 had a perfectly timed ridge over the Dakotas. March 2018 was a legit monster NAO block that kept regenerating....that was def not transient. You obviously want to ebb and flow a bit, but the consistency of it through the month is what allowed us to have 4 major storm threats. Tat's what made that 2018 block all the more special...for the longevity of it that NAO pattern didn't become stale (like 2010)...it kept regenerating and supplying the goods. More often than that when a particular feature holds dominance for an extended period things become "stale"...not in March of 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Sadly, March 2018 wasn’t all that memorable here on the immediate coast. We didn’t get the big snows just inland did. Ocean impacts were severe though...lots of damage from waves/surge. Unfortunately, we likely missed our window for big snows on the immediate coast as climo becomes much more harsh. This doesn’t mean we won’t or can’t get big snows to the coast in March, it just looks less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Transient blocks work...but you usually need an underlying good pattern to begin with....2015 was so ridiculously good in the PAC...a couple of our big dog storms we had no transient block at all but it didn't matter. Even 2013 had a perfectly timed ridge over the Dakotas. March 2018 was a legit monster NAO block that kept regenerating....that was def not transient. You obviously want to ebb and flow a bit, but the consistency of it through the month is what allowed us to have 4 major storm threats. Didn’t the pac improve as we got deeper into March 2018? I remember the first costal at the end of February didn’t have much cold to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: EXACTLY!!! I'm not a fan of just having a monthly averaged value...and to extend on this not a big fan of just looking at the averaged 500 pattern for the month either. You aren't going to capture any transition periods and it's the transition periods where a weather event is likely to occur. This is precisely I would love to use the daily data and construct a weekly/bi-weekly index but that will never happen. Unless I just do it simply and take 7 and 14-days worth of values, add them, then divide by the period (7 or 14 days) but that isn't going to be accurate...I don't think. then with these values can further analyze height anomalies, etc. You know CPC has daily values Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 How is the Morch 56 analog looking? That forecast still look good? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Didn’t the pac improve as we got deeper into March 2018? I remember the first costal at the end of February didn’t have much cold to work with. It got marginally better....esp after the 3/7-8 storm....but that pattern was almost purely Atlantic....the 3/21 storm probably had the best PAC of the 4 storms, but that isn't saying much. Here's a GFS loop of the pattern right as the 3/2 storm is ending. Look at how marginal the airmass is even in the 3/8 storm. But the block forced the track underneath us. That storm was already negatively tilted out in the western plains....it probably goes through lake superior without the blocking. You can see how the marginal cold is being supplied from the north in Quebec. Not really from central Canada via an EPO/PNA dump. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20180303/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20180303/MRF_0z/mrfloop2.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Sadly, March 2018 wasn’t all that memorable here on the immediate coast. We didn’t get the big snows just inland did. Ocean impacts were severe though...lots of damage from waves/surge. Unfortunately, we likely missed our window for big snows on the immediate coast as climo becomes much more harsh. This doesn’t mean we won’t or can’t get big snows to the coast in March, it just looks less likely. Unless March 56 walked in the door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How is the Morch 56 analog looking? That forecast still look good? No one analoged that. You confuse things alot. You sure you are ok 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: No one analoged that. You confuse things alot. You sure you are ok Pretty sure “they” did.They responded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: You know CPC has daily values Yes...although I've been having trouble accessing them. When clicking the link it directs to a bunch of folders and when clicking on the daily values it wants to open up something and the computer can't recognize the file or something. But I wish the process would be as easy as taking 7-days worth of numbers, adding, then dividing lol. One time for hahas I added up all the daily values for January 1950 and divided by 31 and checked if it equaled the Jan 1950 value...nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Yes...although I've been having trouble accessing them. When clicking the link it directs to a bunch of folders and when clicking on the daily values it wants to open up something and the computer can't recognize the file or something. But I wish the process would be as easy as taking 7-days worth of numbers, adding, then dividing lol. One time for hahas I added up all the daily values for January 1950 and divided by 31 and checked if it equaled the Jan 1950 value...nope Try the ascii files and open in word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty sure “they” did.They responded Pretty sure your reading comprehension is fuked 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 55 minutes ago, tamarack said: Thru yesterday GYX was 0.6" AN, which means they're probably dead on their norms today. (And BN tomorrow ) CAR's 97" is 129% of their average thru 2/19, I'm at 88% (data back only thru 98-99), and I'd guess the rest of the Maineiacs on the snow table are a bit AN.. Nice rainstorm on the gfs for next week. Inland runner. That model has over-warmed nearly every precip event since New Year's. The op run for 12z Tuesday had Augusta reaching upper 30s with snow-to-rain. Only missed by about 15° w/o a sniff of RA, not bad for the last run before flakes arrived. Yeah Tom, The GFS has not performed well at all no matter what some think, It was gawd awful on yesterdays system and i mean terrible for days and days with the thermal profile for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Try the ascii files and open in word I love you!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Gfs is an inland runner for next week. Another storm going down the drain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Not that’s it surprising given the tenor of the season or the timeframe (150+) hours out.... but a pretty decent jump back NW on the gfs after a couple cycles flirting with wintry precip in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is an inland runner for next week. Another storm going down the drain. Tuesday? Wasn't that supposed to be rain or do you mean Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: March 18 showed why NAO helps a lot. When people reference monthly values they fail to acknowledge those dailies where transient neg NAO is in place. Dailies are more important than a monthly average. It's all about timing. Having blocking and cold air drain and bingo. Well, I think when the month averages negative, we have a better shot of having the nuanced timing work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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