February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020

[DavisStraight]

I belonged to a ski club in the 80's, we cancelled some trips because the conditions were so bad. This year would be fine. 

[ineedsnow]

Locking in the day 9 Euro snowstorm..

[8611Blizz]

Well Bouchard is locking in a March pattern change, good enough for me

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Locking in the day 9 Euro snowstorm..

We’ll have legit chances into Mar.. 

[Spanks45]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Locking in the day 9 Euro snowstorm..

My memory is not the greatest, but I do seem to remember the Euro tossing out one of those NJ Lows the blankets most of SNE at least 4 times over the past month. Usually in that 8-10 day range and we all know how they worked out, hopefully for once it has a clue...

[Go Kart Mozart]

lol, 06 gfs, hour 384 makes this winter a smashing success for all.

[Spanks45]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ll have legit chances into Mar.. 

It has that feeling if somehow we can finally get onto the right side of a system we could stay there for a week or 2 before it warms up. But who knows, I keep seeing that trough in the west showing up in the long range, which we all know how that has worked out this year without any NAO help...

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

lol, 06 gfs, hour 384 makes this winter a smashing success for all.

The end result is probably some of you smashing your keyboard instead. 

[MJO812]

Pattern looks alot better on the gfs and euro at the end of the month.

[Ogmios]

5 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Locking in the day 9 Euro snowstorm..

Should be locked in as a rain, drizzle, and fog scenario for all coastal areas.  As an added bonus rains to all of Maine - well maybe if there is a trend towards the colder northern Maine might get away with snow with the rest of us getting 40s and 50s again.   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

51 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It has that feeling if somehow we can finally get onto the right side of a system we could stay there for a week or 2 before it warms up. But who knows, I keep seeing that trough in the west showing up in the long range, which we all know how that has worked out this year without any NAO help...

I’m not seeing the same death troughs in the west. As we AK ridge and relax the AO and completely shut down the SE ridge...even in a neutral PNA, we can be wintry. Again, before the hot humping winter debbies word twisting emotional weenies flood the board later...this doesn’t mean we are going to Feb 15 it either.

[Ogmios]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pattern looks alot better on the gfs and euro at the end of the month.

Hour 384 with that snow storm coming up the coast is hardly anything to look at from that long distance of your eye.  It is simply wishful thought playing to your ego that you want it to be true, but at the end of the day with the way this pattern is shaping up mother nature is in the game this year of "keep away."  And there is indeed a valuable lesson, but we cannot learn that lesson if she gives us just one otherwise all we do is not learn that what you want you cannot always have, in fact what we want in life we rarely get, and if we do we never get to keep it. 

Never doubt the snow less winter scenario even in a climate where there is no man made global warming or there is climate change due to dust, particles, comets, volcanic eruption,  that lead to ice ages. 

11 121 74.7 

[CoastalWx]

It's definitely a wholesale change going forward. Although nothing is imminent in terms of individual snow events, that's about as good as we have seen over the last two months. It is by no means perfect, but it's probably our best shot since December. I know that isn't saying much. 

[SJonesWX]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's definitely a wholesale change going forward. Although nothing is imminent in terms of individual snow events, that's about as good as we have seen over the last two months. It is by no means perfect, but it's probably our best shot since December. I know that isn't saying much. 

when do you think it will change? end of Feb into march?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SJonesWX said:

when do you think it will change? end of Feb into march?

Yeah after mid week next week. Until then, it's meh...although weekend will be spring-like.

[HoarfrostHubb]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's definitely a wholesale change going forward. Although nothing is imminent in terms of individual snow events, that's about as good as we have seen over the last two months. It is by no means perfect, but it's probably our best shot since December. I know that isn't saying much. 

“Thank you Dennis”

[CapturedNature]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah after mid week next week. Until then, it's meh...although weekend will be spring-like.

It looks like right at the end of the month.  We've been here before so let's hope Lucy (the planet) doesn't pull the ball like it did in January.

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

“Thank you Dennis”

Nah this is beyond the doings of one storm. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MetHerb said:

It looks like right at the end of the month.  We've been here before so let's hope Lucy (the planet) doesn't pull the ball like it did in January.

I know..keep thinking that too....but it looks to be a change from what we had. Of course everyone measures this by what their backyard shows, but the idea is that the big pieces change. Hopefully the surface aspect of it will too. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah this is beyond the doings of one storm. 

I was being facetious.  You and Tip laid it out well the other day

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I was being facetious.  You and Tip laid it out well the other day

I mean it may have some effect....I just don't see how that would completely be the sole factor. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yup...definitive and coherent overnight trend toward ( ...not away for a change ..) the expectation of lapsing +AO in lieu of (eventually) more meridional flow structures across the whole hemisphere, from all guidance sources, roughly a week +    ...hint, I don't think we have to wait until March. 

I began advertising this my self four days ago, so yes repetition but the re-iteration is necessary.  This isn't just a pattern change ( imho ).  It is one landing on top of that tendency in climatology for blocking in early to mid spring, and the two together is constructive interference. The reason for the latter is also dually supported in its own rite for being at the end of a progressive bias/longitude flow type - those zonal gradient rich patterns tend to yield to a counter-balanced curvature bias to some varying degree that may last a week or ten days; so that conceptually lends credence. 

So, we have some empirical and indirect assumptive reasoning to support a regime change ( whole-scale ) as Scott surmised.    

As to the dailies, ..there appears to be a two wave-space format being handled by the guidance, each model relative to their own bias tendencies. The 192 ( D8 ) GFS has a large gap between the pallid (yet gaining strength/trend in guidance) lead wave along the eastern seaboard, the main player back doing a Denver job..The Euro has the lead wave stronger ( a bias tendency it has in that time range), but also has the Rockies way east..  prepping a stem-wound proper Nor'easter; it's pattern synoptic evolution et al may be over amped.   So, it seems the GFS is too stretched, and the Euro is too strong:  sound familiar?   Meanwhile, we have to manage that uncertainty while these pattern augmentations discussed above are concurrently taking place and certainly muddling things more.  It's not ridiculous to envision an event next week ..and the lead could become dominant and swap out, too - there's that.  It's possible that the two bodily come east and act like one protracted event, a.k.a. Dec earlier this season.  It is important to view/anticipated next week uniquely That is a pattern flavor we have not tasted this season *if* *if * *if* the vector of this pattern change verifies!

if so ...I'm thinking the pattern change starts this weekend with that deep south height recession... The AO may still be rather perchy at that time, but running down hill.  If the south recedes, that lowers the total gradient from that direction, and things start slowing down sooner than we think, which may be why the models are fiddling with next week as more of non-sheared real player in the east.  That Euro run ( I'll admit ) was a sight for eyes that have not seen candy it too long. heh.   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup...definitive and coherent overnight trend toward ( ...not away for a change ..) the expectation of lapsing +AO in lieu of (eventually) more meridional flow structures across the whole hemisphere, from all guidance sources, roughly a week +    ...hint, I don't think we have to wait until March. 

I began advertising this my self four days ago, so yes repetition but the re-iteration is necessary.  This isn't just a pattern change ( imho ).  It is one landing on top of that tendency in climatology for blocking in early to mid spring, and the two together is constructive interference. The reason for the latter is also dually supported in its own rite for being at the end of a progressive bias/longitude flow type - those zonal gradient rich patterns tend to yield to a counter-balanced curvature bias to some varying degree that may last a week or ten days; so that conceptually lends credence. 

So, we have some empirical and indirect assumptive reasoning to support a regime change ( whole-scale ) as Scott surmised.    

As to the dailies, ..there appears to be a two wave-space format being handled by the guidance, each relative to their own bias tendencies. The 192 ( D8 ) GFS has a large gap between the pallid (yet gaining strength/trend in guidance) lead wave along the eastern seaboard, the main player back of the Front Range..The Euro has the lead wave stronger ( a bias tendency it has in that time range), but also has the Rockies more important wave preparing to stem-wound a proper Nor'easter, a pattern structure et al that may be over amped.   So, it seems the GFS is too stretched, and the Euro is too strong:  sound familiar?   Meanwhile, we have to manage that uncertainty while these pattern augmentations discussed above are concurrently taking place and certainly muddling things more.  It's not ridiculous to envision an event next week ..and the lead could become dominant and swap out, too - there's that.  It's possible that the two bodily come east and act like one protracted event, a.k.a. Dec earlier this season.  It is important to view/anticipated next week uniquely That is a pattern flavor we have not tasted this season *if* *if * *if* the vector of this pattern change verifies!

if so ...I'm thinking the pattern change starts this weekend with that deep south height recession... The AO may still be rather perchy at that time, but has running down hill.  If the south recedes, that lowers the total gradient from that direction, and things start slowing down sooner than we think, which may be why the models are fiddling with next week as more of non-sheared real player in the east.  That was Euro run ( I'll admit ) was a sight for eyes that have not seen candy it too long. heh.   

We’ve been saying this since the start of the month, just not as eloquently as you. Glad you’re on board. 

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean it may have some effect....I just don't see how that would completely be the sole factor. 

 one could probably argue Dennis(and the succession of lows there) prolonged the pattern

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ve been saying this since the start of the month, just not as eloquently as you. Glad you’re on board. 

yeah I know - credit where ever ...etc etc.

My thing is that we've seen 'signs' all season, and exactly 0 have really panned out since early December - and some of them have been truly solid and convincing, too - 

This one I feel has the uniqueness about it as I described that "perhaps" lends more credence than it's duck-hunt predecessors - I just didn't bother to mention it until there was more backing it...  blah blah.  The other thing is that we've been pushing off "better patterns" since early January... and the early month calls "sounded" like the same shit to me. Again, I needed more to back this -

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

It looks like right at the end of the month.  We've been here before so let's hope Lucy (the planet) doesn't pull the ball like it did in January.

That’s what most folks are thinking.Head fake, pump fake,any buyers left with just shins below the knees.For most .. the hope is there, but the money stays in pockets

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah I know - credit where ever ...etc etc.

My thing is that we've seen 'signs' all season, and exactly 0 have really panned out since early December - and some of them have been truly solid and convincing, too - 

This one I feel has the uniqueness about it as I described that "perhaps" lends more credence than it's duck-hunt predecessors - I just didn't bother to mention it until there was more backing it...  blah blah.  The other thing is that we've been pushing off "better patterns" since early January... and the early month calls "sounded" like the same shit to me. Again, I needed more to back this -

I agree, understand the notion to ‘see more’. Previous modeled patterns were detrimental to the weenie psyche and therefore some have completely abandoned the winter vessel but...overwhelming evidence supports it’s still in tact. Whether one wants to jump back aboard is to their own emotional comforts. 

I’ll take the weather as it comes.

[weatherwiz]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know..keep thinking that too....but it looks to be a change from what we had. Of course everyone measures this by what their backyard shows, but the idea is that the big pieces change. Hopefully the surface aspect of it will too. 

what would be the catalyst behind the change? This is something which I was trying to get at with my evening rants last night. 

I don't think it's in the best interest to assume a pattern change is going to occur (and in this cases big changes to the AO) just b/c "it is modeled". How many times have we seen models indicate a pattern change beyond a certain time frame only for it to continue being delayed...and delayed? For it to have merit there has to be a catalyst. 

So in this situation, if we're looking at a big pattern change to occur in say 7-10 days or 10-14 days...I would think whatever the catalyst is to drive that changes should be sen in real-time within the next 3-4 days. 

What is going to allow a relaxation of the AO? I was reading some stuff last night and apparently the AO is forecast to remain completely in tact and very strong moving into March. Unless there is something to disrupt those historic westerlies I can't see this AO just going poof. 

[CoastalWx]

Who said going poof? From 5SD to 1SD is a huge change. 

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Who said going poof? From 5SD to 1SD is a huge change. 

Yeah. At least we’re going from SHEM-like flow to something with more potential amplitude.