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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

I like Tips posts, especially in the context of today’s text and abbreviate culture.  We have collective cultural ADHD.  The thought of having to actually sit and think and read and think more to make sense of something seems to be a shrinking skill. Damn I sound old.  But weather patterns are complicated and can’t always be reduced to a tweet.  We Should be greatful for the skilled posters who are willing to take the time to really dissect something, and Tip is not the only one.

Totally agree, though like the great "stream of consciousness" author, Thomas Wolfe, Tip could use a good editor!

 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

We P Day. Great event.

That was a pretty prolific north trend in that one. I remember about 3-4 days out NYC was getting fringed or almost nothing....esp on GFS which always was too far south on those. But even Euro was decently south. Then it was like every single run it bumped north. The old ETA of course was obsessed with hammering SNE and turned out mostly correct. 

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1 hour ago, Hailstoned said:

Totally agree, though like the great "stream of consciousness" author, Thomas Wolfe, Tip could use a good editor!

 

Thanks for the sidled compliment but ... meh, a properly edited 'stream of consciousness' becomes stilted ( typically ), and besides ...for this venue, the polishing given are plenty sufficient, because a more refined effort and or attention to detail would go unheralded.   No thanks on the time waste - ;)

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32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is keeping us wedged up here tomorrow and that bit of backed sfc flow is giving a little extra weenie lift over the cold dome. A nice 7" weenie jack around Gene with a good ~5" here. Then we chill...then we mild up. Could be a nice weekend.

Maybe an overperformer for a change.  Haven’t had one since our supersquall 

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29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is keeping us wedged up here tomorrow and that bit of backed sfc flow is giving a little extra weenie lift over the cold dome. A nice 7" weenie jack around Gene with a good ~5" here. Then we chill...then we mild up. Could be a nice weekend.

Looks like I might get an inch of crud again if “lucky”. Theme of the winter on these shredded SWFEs that are too far northwest to hammer the good dynamics into us. 

This one is probably going to have a lot of holes in the maxes and min up in NNE. I hate when the vortmax goes from like DTW to northwest of Ottawa. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a pretty prolific north trend in that one. I remember about 3-4 days out NYC was getting fringed or almost nothing....esp on GFS which always was too far south on those. But even Euro was decently south. Then it was like every single run it bumped north. The old ETA of course was obsessed with hammering SNE and turned out mostly correct. 

I thought PDay was modeled ok but the big north trend was January 2005.  The day before 2003 was really cold....highs in the teens down to nyc.  Snow began close to noon and rocked on heavy deep into the evening.   I have some photos I took on a walk during the storm on Don Sutherlamd’s digital snow machine.

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10 hours ago, Fozz said:

How has this winter been generally in northern VT?

Since this is my first winter in New England (not a good first, lol), I don't have much point of reference.

 

10 hours ago, mreaves said:

Very warm. Not overly snowy but not the worst. In the lower half but not the bottom quarter. The gradient seems to cut right through this area but these are just personal observations and not rooted in anything formal. The best obs by far for northern VT are done by JSpin, who I believe teaches at UVM. Data is his thing and he does an outstanding job analyzing it. 

I don’t really track temperatures, my primary focus is snowfall, but I do also have snowpack data for our site.

From what I’ve heard, temperatures have been above normal recently as mreaves indicated.  I think Powderfreak said our area was +7 F for January?  He, or others that follow temperatures, may have some other numbers to fill you in here as well if they get the chance.  As long as they don’t drastically affect snowfall/snowpack/snow quality, warmer midwinter temperatures are a plus in my book – that’s especially the case in January around here.  Our average winter temperatures in January are cold enough, and below average is brutal if you’re going to be out on the slopes (or just living everyday life).  I believe November temperatures were below average in this area though.  That’s a good time to have below average temperatures around here, and it was likely a plus in terms of snowfall as I’ll mention below.

I don’t track snowpack in too much detail, but I have our daily depth data since I report it to CoCoRaHS.  Using my current data set, mean snow depth days (SDD) through Feb 17 at our site are 786.4, and currently we’re at 585.0, which is 74.4% of average.  That’s pretty in line with how it’s felt with respect to snowpack.  Although our continuous winter snowpack did start on the early side (November 8th) this season, probably aided by the below average November temperatures, the depth has felt well below average until just recently when we got that shot from Winter Storm Kade earlier this month.  It took a storm like that, with 17.0” snow/1.86” liquid to get things back to average.  Currently our snowpack depth is reading 15.5”, which is actually just a few inches below average, and it’s generally been hanging around that mark for the past week or so.

I’ve added a plot below that gives one sense of how the season’s snowfall has been around here.  It shows the running deviation in snowfall (± inches) relative to the cumulative seasonal average for our site.  November snowfall here was actually only a few inches above average, but a good chunk of it came so early (7.1” from a storm on 11/7, and then another 5.1” from Winter Storm Caleb on 11/10) that it put us well ahead of average as the positive deviation spike in early November shows in the plot.  December snowfall was slightly below average overall, so you can see that the positive deviation spike hung on, but faded toward the end of the month.  January snowfall was a bit below average, but overall not bad, and you can see that the notable negative deviation spike developed at the end of the month into the start of February.  So far February has sort of been like the other months, keeping things about average overall with just a slight drop below average as of late.  Average snowfall for our site through today is 106.3”, and we’re just a couple of inches behind that.

17FEB20A.jpg

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18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I thought PDay was modeled ok but the big north trend was January 2005.  The day before 2003 was really cold....highs in the teens down to nyc.  Snow began close to noon and rocked on heavy deep into the evening.   I have some photos I took on a walk during the storm on Don Sutherlamd’s digital snow machine.

They both had big north trends. PDII was def a miss here several days out. 

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We could really be heading towards a snooze fest of a pattern...to me it seems like a pattern we would see between the transition from fall to winter...where things sort of quiet down after the fall and then we establish our winter pattern. But there seems to be strong support for large high pressure to become established over a major chunk of the U.S. Patterns like that can hold for quite a while too. I'm guessing after that pattern we could bold right into a late spring type pattern.

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We could really be heading towards a snooze fest of a pattern...to me it seems like a pattern we would see between the transition from fall to winter...where things sort of quiet down after the fall and then we establish our winter pattern. But there seems to be strong support for large high pressure to become established over a major chunk of the U.S. Patterns like that can hold for quite a while too. I'm guessing after that pattern we could bold right into a late spring type pattern.

There’s been circles discussing 2012

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