CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, jbenedet said: No. Last one I called for 2-3”, half of GYX’s map issued 2/11, which turned out to be spot on done here. I think we get a trace on Tuesday. But the problem was the lack of QPF. It was cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: dennis's impact on a pattern change is nebulous caustation at best. We've had several very deep cyclones in that region, just last week as well. Yeah I don't buy that rationale either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But the problem was the lack of QPF. It was cold enough. No it wasn’t just a matter of qpf. “Cold enough”. For what? At the end of the day it’s also about ratios and how it accumulates. What fell overnight wasn’t high ratio fluff and what fell 6am on didn’t stack up in SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: No it wasn’t just a matter of qpf. “Cold enough”. For what? At the end of the day it’s also about ratios and how it accumulates. What fell overnight wasn’t high ratio fluff and what fell 6am on didn’t stack up in SNH. It all fell to the south. 2-3" at the border. Less near MHT and points ENE because the good echoes never got there. It was not mild ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I don't buy that rationale either. I don't buy that, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 NWS Boston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: NWS Boston Is that the same guy who tweeted no snow to the Canada border yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 hours ago, SJonesWX said: i was out on the snowmobile up your way yesterday. Trailered to Depot St then jumped on the rail trail and headed up towards Lebanon. Tons of sled traffic, but the trail was awesome. very convenient spot to trailer to. If there is still snow by the time NH’s free weekend comes, I want to do that from the Lebanon end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, jbenedet said: No it wasn’t just a matter of qpf. “Cold enough”. For what? At the end of the day it’s also about ratios and how it accumulates. What fell overnight wasn’t high ratio fluff and what fell 6am on didn’t stack up in SNH. It was overrunning. Who was expecting fluff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: surprised there was enough snow down towards Boscawen. The trails just near my property by Walker Pond are groomed but it looks like 8 inches or so. But glad you're riding! The rail trail is awesome all seasons. That’s the beauty of using old railroad beds for trails. They don’t need as much snow because they are flat and smooth. No rocks or roots or other variations of the surface that need more snow to cover and fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, dendrite said: It was overrunning. Who was expecting fluff? Lift wasn't adequate to get into the DGZ. Was a matter of qpf too. Not an airmass issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Cali having a winter to forget also with bone dry Jan/Feb. Unless March is different, you'll be seeing lots of fires on TV again. Edit: SoCal isn't as BD off this year as NorCal so if things keep up this way, NorCal could have real problems with fire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 I was trying to think today. I’m pretty sure , for this area of NE CT.. this is the worst winter(snowfall wise YTD) since a winter in the early 2000’s. Maybe 11-12 is close . Other than that which I’m not sure about.. this has been the worst in close to 20 years. At least from what I can recall. To have 5-6 “ of snow between Dec 20 - Feb 20 is almost impossible to do in the hills . Maybe Metherb has some data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, Randy4Confluence said: Cali having a winter to forget also with bone dry Jan/Feb. Unless March is different, you'll be seeing lots of fires on TV again. Almost all their snow fell before New Years . They began the year cranking in November/December looks like an all time least snowy period from New Years to now . At the 10K summit at mammoth ...13” Freaking inches and NONE this month . That is unheard of They did 200” plus in February alone last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 162” on the year at Mammoth Summit not good I feel like Sierra resorts either get a ton of snow or far below average snow over the last few years. Squaw Valley has numbers back to 2013 and it’s such a roller coaster. I’ve skied our there a couple times and I was not complaining either way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: I feel like Sierra resorts either get a ton of snow or far below average snow over the last few years. Squaw Valley has numbers back to 2013 and it’s such a roller coaster. I’ve skied our there a couple times and I was not complaining either way! Lot of variance their famine is our best winter ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Don’t forget mammoth still has 3 months of legit snow possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Don’t forget mammoth still has 3 months of legit snow possibilities yup could pick up 80'' in march alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dan76 said: yup could pick up 80'' in march alone In a 3 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Well to be safe I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Anyway i will enjoy my 3” on drive up to N Conway / Glen area on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I think So Cal is actually doing ok precip wise? The flow has been such where Nrn CA is screwed, but srn CA has done ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lift wasn't adequate to get into the DGZ. Was a matter of qpf too. Not an airmass issue Not an airmass issue the one time —all season— it fits *your* narrative. Airmass issues are the theme of the season, but you will disregard that now...Tell me how *little* snow SNE received from this event, and then we’ll pretend like SNH snowfall amounts weren’t at all adversely impacted by what happened down there. ORH hit 35 F on 2/13 also btw, as did ASH and PSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Not an airmass issue the one time —all season— it fits *your* narrative. Airmass issues are the theme of the season, but you will disregard that now...Tell me how *little* snow SNE received from this event, and then we’ll pretend like SNH snowfall amounts weren’t at all adversely impacted by what happened down there. ORH hit 35 F on 2/13 also btw, as did ASH and PSM. We had 2-3" just south of the border. That was modeled. It quickly dwindled to very little past like exit 5 of 93 in NH. That was not modeled. We even had numerous posters saying how bad radar looked. It got to the mid 30s after it ended. Nobody expected a foot, but 4-6" turned into 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We had 2-3" just south of the border. That was modeled. It quickly dwindled to very little past like exit 5 of 93 in NH. That was not modeled. We even had numerous posters saying how bad radar looked. It got to the mid 30s after it ended. Nobody expected a foot, but 4-6" turned into 1-3". 4-6” was always a bad bet bc you needed everything to go perfectly for that to verify—temps, lift and qpf. I pointed mostly to the former 2 as to why I was anticipating much less. I don’t care what you guys want to say—implying that less than mod rates with surface temps 32/33 has no impact on accums just doesn’t add up at the stake. A degree or two matters significantly in this case. That’s my point and I’ll stick with it, bc it works. Also I flipped to sleet around 7 a.m. I lost ~0.1” LE to mix and rain, and what fell before sunrise couldn’t offset what would be lost after 6am, bc the ratios sucked. Period. End of story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 PGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 4-6” was always a bad bet bc you needed everything to go perfectly for that to verify—temps, lift and qpf. I pointed mostly to the former 2 as to why I was anticipating much less. I don’t care what you guys want to say—implying that less than mod rates with surface temps 32/33 has no impact on accums just doesn’t add up at the stake. A degree or two matters significantly in this case. That’s my point and I’ll stick with it, bc it works. Also I flipped to sleet around 7 a.m. I lost ~0.1” LE to mix and rain, and what fell before sunrise couldn’t offset what would be lost after 6am, bc the ratios sucked. Period. End of story. What time approximately did you start drinking today? Rough estimate ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, jbenedet said: 4-6” was always a bad bet bc you needed everything to go perfectly for that to verify—temps, lift and qpf. I pointed mostly to the former 2 as to why I was anticipating much less. I don’t care what you guys want to say, but denying that less than mod rates with temps 32/33 just doesn’t add up at the stake. A degree or two matters significantly in this case. That’s my point and I’ll stick with it, bc it works. Also I flipped to sleet around 7 a.m. I lost ~0.1” LE to mix and rain, and what fell before sunrise couldn’t offset what would be lost after 6am, bc the ratios sucked. Period. End of story. Not sure you looked at radar, but it was shredded by 5-6am. Temps near and below 32. And yet those borderline areas still had 3". It had nothing to do with ratios etc. Nobody expected fluff. But a prolonged event of 0.3"to 0.5" QPF was expected before a flip. The main action stayed closer to the LLJ near the south coast which does happen. Temps were not the issue. Hell I wetbulbed to near 32F from being 38F on the coast south of Boston with snow and sleet. If temps and lift were the issue, we wouldn't have had more snow to the south of the areas progged to get several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Anyways, Hopefully we can get some more events coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure you looked at radar, but it was shredded by 5-6am. Temps near and below 32. And yet those borderline areas still had 3". It had nothing to do with ratios etc. Nobody expected fluff. But a prolonged event of 0.3"to 0.5" QPF was expected before a flip. The main action stayed closer to the LLJ near the south coast which does happen. Temps were not the issue. Hell I wetbulbed to near 32F from being 38F on the coast south of Boston with snow and sleet. If temps and lift were the issue, we wouldn't have had more snow to the south of the areas progged to get several inches. BS. And BS. We can agree to disagree. I don’t care. Pretty incredible the airmass had no bearing on snow accums. What was that the first time this season? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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