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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It looks -pna/+nao through week 4. Week 5 and 6 are a bit more neutral but certainly not cold. 

hopeecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-nao-box-0947200.png

A slightly positive NAO is not all that bad for points north of Boston.  But how negative is the pna going to be?  As from looking into the Environment Canada records I have noticed years where the PNA was negative and we still got crushed with snow events through the maritimes.  

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37 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It looks -pna/+nao through week 4. Week 5 and 6 are a bit more neutral but certainly not cold. 

ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-nao-box-0947200.png

2m temps didn’t look bad to me on the weeklies. Yes, not bone chilling but after the 20th temps in sne are normal. We would fight the southeast ridge at times but it looks to get knocked down. Here are a few h5 maps and one that shows the weak -nao in March. Imo better then 6 weeks of the same pattern that was being depicted on Monday. Obviously, this is to be taken with a grain of salt 

 

A140F5B2-4E9B-4159-BF42-E63C8A6A67C9.png

0A8C6F84-92B2-4D34-B54F-7BC2EF833683.png

05FA4A3B-839F-4B98-8700-EAEECDCD246C.png

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1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

It looks -pna/+nao through week 4. Week 5 and 6 are a bit more neutral but certainly not cold. 

ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-nao-box-0947200.png

Yea, I don’t know what some people are talking about but those weeklies are not showing Atlantic and arctic blocking and the PNA is still negative. While certainly not a torch, they definitely don’t look cold to me 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, I don’t know what some people are talking about but those weeklies are not showing Atlantic and arctic blocking and the PNA is still negative. While certainly not a torch, they definitely don’t look cold to me 

No one said "blocking"....neutral to slightly negative NAO. I don't buy a positive NAO through March. I'd be suprised.

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23 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey,, it’s great the resorts and trails up north are getting snow, they need it, but let’s be honest..seeing Jspin and Freak banging the Morse code out on each other’s ski poles to maneuver thru the snow and Dryslot and Winterwolf in Fort Kent stuck in two feet of snow and losing their bibs riding the sleds back to base camp pantless jousting their swords like a Star Wars scene isn’t exactly what snowless in SNE wants to see 

This is the content I (occasionally) stop by here for. Well done sir

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course he’ll take a good Mar event but the point is there is zero reason to frantically review every run for possible positivity at this stage. If it comes, it comes...but that’s the extent of it.

What your seeing now, Is what were getting the next 3 weeks.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Some seasons they work out fairly well but this season has been brutal for anything past like d3 lol. 

Goes along with the whole winter so far, I have already made the decision a week or so ago that i'm going to recreate NW of here for the remainder of winter.

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March snow is so annoying though....it never sticks around and is usually a complete let down.....it’s nice while it’s happening but it’s never gonna contribute to any lasting pack that would matter like it would in December and January....it’s nice when it’s gravy coming off an epic season but now?  Get that shit outta here....don’t want it....boned....so boned 

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I do hear what some are saying about March snow on here. I guess unless you get a storm like March 19-20 1956, 3-4 1960, March 12-14 1888,March 31-April 1 it won't quite have the impact with storms that happen earlier in the season. Yes, 1888 is the super extreme outlier to say the least, but it does show you what can happen even in what seems to be a weak winter so far...

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13 minutes ago, Greg said:

I do hear what some are saying about March snow on here. I guess unless you get a storm like March 19-20 1956, 3-4 1960, March 12-14 1888,March 31-April 1 it won't quite have the impact with storms that happen earlier in the season. Yes, 1888 is the super extreme outlier to say the least, but it does show you what can happen even in what seems to be a weak winter so far...

There’s no “seems to be” here....this winter is garbage....it’s been clear from weeks ago

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This place has gone insane in the membrane...

No it doesn't look good here on out, but again, there will be *chances* for some wintry weather, even in SNE, last two weeks of Feb into early March.  I've been looking at the CFS long range on Pivotal for most of the winter, and while it's obviously not perfect, it has actually been rather consistent in the long range with what we have been seeing in terms of pattern and the resulting lack of snow this winter.  I've always thought the CFS was garbage but for whatever reason this winter its been pretty decent, and it's showing some colder conditions in a week or two, with maybe some storm chances that coincide with it.  So I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt - some of the other guidance suggests that as well.

I guess if we don't have any snow outside that we can watch melt, might as well be the posters in this forum...

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