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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The odd thing about cold rain in London is that it feels right.  When I was in London and Manchester (my sister studied at U of Manchester for a while), it added to the vibe to have it like 48F with -RN.  It fits all your preconceived notions of what English life is, haha.  Like being in a movie, walking down a narrow cobblestone street and ducking into a small pub for a pint to get out of the rain.

I've been lucky a few times and had some spectacular weather, but you are correct that the cool, misty, drizzly days are so quintessentially English.  Definitely taking a risk going over in late February/Early March.  Did you get out to the Peak District when you were in Manchester?  45 minute train ride from Manchester to Edale, get off the train and it is a 10 minute walk to the start of the Pennine Way . . . and of course you pass by 2 pubs along the way!

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The AO forecast is beyond ridiculous...+6 to +7SD....yikes 

 

 

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Winter is done...it's over. 

It's already mid-February. We aren't going to get any help from the Arctic whatsoever...by the time any changes take place we'll be into the spring season...should changes take place. Given how strongly positive the AO will become again the PV isn't just going to weaken and breakdown in a few days or even a few weeks. Even with a somewhat favorable Pacific the Arctic signal is just too strong. 

What are you looking at other than the next week or so?  The AO is forecast to fall of a cliff after that.  We will get help from the arctic, and it is far from too late.  I am sure you remember 1993...a dog of a winter until March.

ao osc.gif

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The odd thing about cold rain in London is that it feels right.  When I was in London and Manchester (my sister studied at U of Manchester for a while), it added to the vibe to have it like 48F with -RN.  It fits all your preconceived notions of what English life is, haha.  Like being in a movie, walking down a narrow cobblestone street and ducking into a small pub for a pint to get out of the rain.

We felt the same way in Bergan (Norway) in August 2017 as we walked past the old (and/or reconstructed) Hanseatic League wooden buildings.  It rains there perhaps more than anywhere else in the country.  Good coffee there and -RA at 60° makes it taste even better.  Also, Bergen claims that cinnamon buns were first made there, another plus.  The all-day downpour in Oslo was less fun, especially the late afternoon 45-minute wait for the bus back toward our air-bnb during the day's heaviest rain at mid-upper 50s.  Every tourist in Oslo was likely doing museums that day (understandably) and buses were often full before they got to our stop.

What are you looking at other than the next week or so?  The AO is forecast to fall of a cliff after that.  We will get help from the arctic, and it is far from too late.  I am sure you remember 1993...a dog of a winter until March.

Doggy thru late Jan up here, but Feb had more snow than March, though both months had loads.  FM 1993 is Farmington's snowiest for that pair, topping even 1969 (snowiest Feb) though '97" in 1993 tops 2001 by a mere 0.4".  In 1993 that co-op's snowpack went from a trace on 1/31 to 56" after the superstorm.  Feb won't contribute all that much this year; we'll see about March.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The odd thing about cold rain in London is that it feels right.  When I was in London and Manchester (my sister studied at U of Manchester for a while), it added to the vibe to have it like 48F with -RN.  It fits all your preconceived notions of what English life is, haha.  Like being in a movie, walking down a narrow cobblestone street and ducking into a small pub for a pint to get out of the rain.

Edinburgh feels the same way. The architecture, city design, and the surrounding landscape all seem to point towards "perpetual late fall" as a natural fit.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lets see if we can get a big one 4 years in a row in March....we're testing our luck. I think ORH has only ever had 4 above average snowfall Marches in a row one time in their record (1958-1961)..

 

Last March was above average at ORH?
 

I just looked. 15.7 for the month.  I think average is around 12”? 

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24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Last March was above average at ORH?
 

I just looked. 15.7 for the month.  I think average is around 12”? 

Avg is around 14. So not super far above avg but it counts. March is very volatile for snowfall. 

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1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

 

 

What are you looking at other than the next week or so?  The AO is forecast to fall of a cliff after that.  We will get help from the arctic, and it is far from too late.  I am sure you remember 1993...a dog of a winter until March.

ao osc.gif

March 93 ain’t walking through that door. 

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58 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Highest SD of the 4 snowy months at my place, easily highest CV.  March ranges from 0.6" to 55.5", both the least and most for any DJFM month and only Dec 1999 is close.

Yeah.  It can really be feast or famine.   I’m guessing which it will be this March.  
Not 2012 but prob not good

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1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

 

 

What are you looking at other than the next week or so?  The AO is forecast to fall of a cliff after that.  We will get help from the arctic, and it is far from too late.  I am sure you remember 1993...a dog of a winter until March.

ao osc.gif

Kinda touched upon this in a response to Steve but you gotta be careful with just looking at the chart. 
 

compare how the models handle the pattern around the time the AO drops...it’s more in relation to a transient ridge which moves across the southern-tier of the AO domain...the drop does not appear to be in relation to any change with the overall strength or structure of the PV. 
 

I haven’t checked what the models are forecasting in terms of temps in the stratosphere but I would assume they’re still going to be quite cold. 

if we wanted to relay on the Arctic for help we would need to (actually would have already needed to) start seeing changes occur within the stratosphere and to the PV now. 
 

Having this major increase in the AO will only further strengthen the PV...especially given how intense the westerlies are in the strat

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2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

 

 

What are you looking at other than the next week or so?  The AO is forecast to fall of a cliff after that.  We will get help from the arctic, and it is far from too late.  I am sure you remember 1993...a dog of a winter until March.

ao osc.gif

Lol...he’s way to young to remember 93.  And 93 improved a lot in Mid-late Feb, and of course into March. 

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