MJO812 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Some good signs in the mid to long range on the gefs and eps. Ridge is starting to pop in the west with help from the mjo. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The AO forecast is beyond ridiculous...+6 to +7SD....yikes Feb 90 analog record AO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The AO forecast is beyond ridiculous...+6 to +7SD....yikes curious that the NAO forecast isn't so extreme...especially considering Dennis (915 mb tomorrow approaching Iceland-wtf) and the general pressure field hanging around there until Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Some good signs in the mid to long range on the gefs and eps. Ridge is starting to pop in the west with help from the mjo. Winter is done...it's over. It's already mid-February. We aren't going to get any help from the Arctic whatsoever...by the time any changes take place we'll be into the spring season...should changes take place. Given how strongly positive the AO will become again the PV isn't just going to weaken and breakdown in a few days or even a few weeks. Even with a somewhat favorable Pacific the Arctic signal is just too strong. 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Feb 90 analog record AO Well, let's hope that this is an every 30 year type of thing. I am definitely one of the snow lovers. But, I have to come to this season just being what it is. If we get a surprise in March, I will be happy. If not, I'm okay with that, too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, MJOatleast7 said: curious that the NAO forecast isn't so extreme...especially considering Dennis (915 mb tomorrow approaching Iceland-wtf) and the general pressure field hanging around there until Sunday I think it's b/c the strongest anomalies are a bit outside of the NAO domain...although it's possible that Hurrell's NAO method (which I believe has a larger domain) would reflect a much more positive value than the CPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I honestly don’t kno how any snow lovers are alive and breathing in SE Areas this is London/ Seattle weather at least 2012 had a beautiful sunny summer stretch in February Heading to Manchester and London at the end of the month, so this is just getting me ready for what's in store! Maybe I'll get lucky and find an early English spring, if there is such a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Some good signs in the mid to long range on the gefs and eps. Ridge is starting to pop in the west with help from the mjo. Probably just in time to give you a 33F rain nor'easter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Probably just in time to give you a 33F rain nor'easter. March 2001 repeat? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Probably just in time to give you a 33F rain nor'easter. I have been having that all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I have been having that all winter. Not with snow falling at the top of 1WTC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: March 2001 repeat? heh...we're getting to the point where NYC avg mean temp starts climbing above 32F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Speaking of February 1990 as an analog...wasn't that spring a big tornado producing year out in the Plains??? That would bode well for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 54 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Winter is done...it's over. It's already mid-February. We aren't going to get any help from the Arctic whatsoever...by the time any changes take place we'll be into the spring season...should changes take place. Given how strongly positive the AO will become again the PV isn't just going to weaken and breakdown in a few days or even a few weeks. Even with a somewhat favorable Pacific the Arctic signal is just too strong. Bad assumptions, things can change in a week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Bad assumptions, things can change in a week. Ya, I was thinking the same thing...he's a MET and all, why say such a silly thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, I was thinking the same thing...he's a MET and all, why say such a silly thing? Everyone is declaring it over. Premature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bad assumptions, things can change in a week. The index itself can change very quickly...absolutely, however, the implications of those changes don't happen as quickly. But sort of dissecting that AO drop it appears it's related to some ridging which slides through the southern sections of the AO domain and isn't necessarily related to the structural change of the AO...which is going to be the most important when wanting a full-scale long-duration pattern change. Even during that projected AO drop the PV still looks to stay relatively intact and strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Everyone is declaring it over. Premature. been reading tweets and posts about changes coming since the end of December...it's now mid-February. spring training has started...we're almost a month away from the equinox...we are now exiting peak climo and slowly hedging towards spring climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Everyone is declaring it over. Premature. It is met Spring in two weeks, wiz is correct. A colder or snowy pattern would probably be tied to transitioning into a more blocky Spring look anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Everyone is declaring it over. Premature. Plenty of time for what? You live in the NYC metro area lol. In 2 weeks, it’s March then you have until 3/15 to do something then nothing but a very anomalous event will get it done. We’ve been hearing “good signs” “pattern flip” “ blocking” “ridge In the west” “-AO/-NAO” “-EPO” “on the long range models” since the beginning of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 thank you forky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 hour ago, HimoorWx said: Heading to Manchester and London at the end of the month, so this is just getting me ready for what's in store! Maybe I'll get lucky and find an early English spring, if there is such a thing. Going to celebrate Liverpool's title? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: been reading tweets and posts about changes coming since the end of December...it's now mid-February. spring training has started...we're almost a month away from the equinox...we are now exiting peak climo and slowly hedging towards spring climo. I'm not sure what baseball's spring training has to do with the weather but met winter ends in 16 days and then it's spring. It still snows in spring. Yeah I don't think deep winter is coming but I don't think we're done for cold and snowy days. It gets more difficult after mid-March (a month from now) but March's have produced before and no one can say with certainty that this one will or won't. The pessimists will say no while people like myself will look at the empirical data when it's all said and done and see if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, mreaves said: Going to celebrate Liverpool's title? Hopefully to celebrate City's third straight Carabao Cup Title at Wembley! Also going to the Manchester Derby the following weekend. Oh yeah, congrats on finally winning the Premier League after 30 years! Just kidding, they've had an incredible season. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, HimoorWx said: Hopefully to celebrate City's third straight Carabao Cup Title at Wembley! Also going to the Manchester Derby the following weekend. Oh yeah, congrats on finally winning the Premier League after 30 years! Just kidding, they've had an incredible season. Cheers! Thanks. Unfortunately, I don't have any other Premier League fans in my office anymore to cheer with or gloat over so I have to take my chances when I can. Have fun on your tripo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The index itself can change very quickly...absolutely, however, the implications of those changes don't happen as quickly. But sort of dissecting that AO drop it appears it's related to some ridging which slides through the southern sections of the AO domain and isn't necessarily related to the structural change of the AO...which is going to be the most important when wanting a full-scale long-duration pattern change. Even during that projected AO drop the PV still looks to stay relatively intact and strong. We don't need the PV to drop down, or be disturbed to have a big snow event in SNE. You know this. I think most are just hoping for a good Warning/ SECS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, MetHerb said: I'm not sure what baseball's spring training has to do with the weather but met winter ends in 16 days and then it's spring. It still snows in spring. Yeah I don't think deep winter is coming but I don't think we're done for cold and snowy days. It gets more difficult after mid-March (a month from now) but March's have produced before and no one can say with certainty that this one will or won't. The pessimists will say no while people like myself will look at the empirical data when it's all said and done and see if it did. Moreso just another indicator that we're headed towards spring. But I totally agree with your post...I'm not saying we won't see any more snow or snow events at all...hell we've had snow events into April before lol...but what I'm just saying is (which agrees with what you said) deep winter is not coming. If we are going to get snow events as we get into March we are likely going to have to rely on something crazy to happen (thread the needle type deal?...I certainly don't think we will get any pattern support for it. If the PV wasn't as potent and strong as it was I would argue against my thoughts...but we've seen before when the PV is this strong it just doesn't break down. It's signal is just too overwhelming too to have other teleconnections overpower it. Here's 50mb zonal winds since February 1...the westerlies are through the roof. It would take a great deal of time for these to weaken and even when that occurred there is typically a 2-4 week lag between the response on the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: We don't need the PV to drop down, or be disturbed to have a big snow event in SNE. You know this. I think most are just hoping for a good Warning/ SECS at this point. oh of course not...however, the influences it is having on the pattern...nearly controlling the entire hemispheric pattern is just making that probability extremely low. Just look at how much trouble we've had. I think there have been instances this winter where the PAC was actually not bad at all but the Arctic was just so unfavorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 hour ago, HimoorWx said: Heading to Manchester and London at the end of the month, so this is just getting me ready for what's in store! Maybe I'll get lucky and find an early English spring, if there is such a thing. The odd thing about cold rain in London is that it feels right. When I was in London and Manchester (my sister studied at U of Manchester for a while), it added to the vibe to have it like 48F with -RN. It fits all your preconceived notions of what English life is, haha. Like being in a movie, walking down a narrow cobblestone street and ducking into a small pub for a pint to get out of the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 It’s coming, patience will be rewarded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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