weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No different then winter. As long as it is extremely active when I go out to OK at the end of May I will take 40's and 50's into July...I would make that trade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: As long as it is extremely active when I go out to OK at the end of May I will take 40's and 50's into July...I would make that trade. We hope you get sucked into an ef5 and sent straight to heaven...just spiritually, of course. We want you alive and safely returned to us. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s a good met. There’s other reasons personally that he’s not so good about I think he used to be better...more focused. Lately I feel like he has been mailing it in. But I don’t watch or follow him as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Thankfully the cold shot is modifying (was never too impressive at H85 anyway) and then we can go back to a couple weeks of meh. Then there will be light at the end of this POS winter tunnel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I think he used to be better...more focused. Lately I feel like he has been mailing it in. But I don’t watch or follow him as much His poor suit is really holding him in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s a good met. There’s other reasons personally that he’s not so good about If you’re a good met, all other ills are forgiven. I know what you’re referring to too btw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s room for some CC reference in these threads but it honestly shouldn’t be the main topic....our weather is overwhelmingly dominated by natural variation on the scales we generally discuss in here...which is weeks and months. There’s a reason places still get their coldest months on record even in today’s climate...and it’s not because of a warmer world either. It’s because natural variation can still overwhelm the underlying warming trend. If we want to debate in-depth how much CC contributed to a specific pattern, I think it’s best discussed in a different thread as these types of attribution studies are not very robust yet in the literature. The climate change signals show up on larger scales and larger samples. Polar jet in the means has migrated a half degree latitude north per the literature? Sure, that affects things. But that is a mean and not the same everywhere. In the CONUS it’s been less than that...mostly because we’ve had the trend higher in the N PAC. So therefore downstream there is a reaction to that. Yet, sometimes that trend is bucked...AK had their coldest January on record in 2012 and 13th coldest this year...certainly no thanks to a more northern PJ in the North Pacific. It was in spite of that trend. Attribution studies are changing all the time too...what was once the hot topic a few years prior can become obsolete. A good example is the changing literature on the arctic region. It was once thought that climate change would force more +NAO/+AO patterns. Then when we went through a remarkable period of -NAO/AO in the 2000s and early 2010s, the hot idea in the literature turned to arctic amplification and sea ice loss being the driver of arctic blocking. Now that idea has been challenged again in recent publications. Perhaps in response to more +AO patterns recently. I’m not mentioning this to discredit the science, but merely to point out the attribution studies to particular patterns are not robustly settled in the literature. It’s being debated. So we have to be careful about passing off the speculative as fact. There are great debates to be had on the subject...how does a larger scale trend affect us in the CONUS or New England? But I don’t want to turn the pattern thread into these all the time when people are mostly here to discuss the weather prospects in this month. Honestly ... I jumped into the middle of an on-going conversation. Scott's talking about it triggering this or that, but I was not the source or start for that snow vs CC. wtf man Fact of that matter is, this Hadley Cell expansion stuff is real. It is empirical, it is researched and continues to be so, and the implications of those studies absolutely is going to rub some folks the wrong way. I can't do anything about that. And, if this social-media platform needs objective usefulness, we have to bring real topical science to bear. I think when this particular rendition split off the culture was never intended to be the same - that much is clear. Once we started registering penny prophet per frame rates and mouse click ... heh. My point is heading toward wondering if that's even possible here in this vision. Be that as it may, I don't care to specifically get into why people get rubbed the wrong way - there's absolutely no way to positively influence one's political agenda, much less 'personal' agenda, amidst a public-anonymity of cadence-less, expression devoid Internet, and in fact, negative is so overwhelming favored there's just no usefulness to engaging. But that vitriol that was triggered ...? sorry that strikes me as people not liking certain realities and lashing out at objective source work. You got some loose canons in here my friend. Which btw ... had nothing to do with anything other that statistical mechanics and method for scatter plotting .. but, when volatility gets to a certain tenderness merely looking at the needle will cause people to pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 40 minutes ago, dendrite said: Thankfully the cold shot is modifying (was never too impressive at H85 anyway) and then we can go back to a couple weeks of meh. Then there will be light at the end of this POS winter tunnel. Another cold shot in the works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Another cold shot in the works After another seemingly ugly system around 2/18. Hopefully that one trends flatter....go figure, we actually have a decent high in front of that one but then it wants to slice up through Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 55 minutes ago, dendrite said: Thankfully the cold shot is modifying (was never too impressive at H85 anyway) and then we can go back to a couple weeks of meh. Then there will be light at the end of this POS winter tunnel. not interested in Tuesday? could have decent qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: After another seemingly ugly system around 2/18. Hopefully that one trends flatter....go figure, we actually have a decent high in front of that one but then it wants to slice up through Ottawa. Yea that's just brutal. NNE may be good though if that flattens a little. Long way out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: After another seemingly ugly system around 2/18. Hopefully that one trends flatter....go figure, we actually have a decent high in front of that one but then it wants to slice up through Ottawa. check out wpc on that one. They show the high. they have pretty decent chances of snow north of the MA-NH border. And their projections improved overnight. Implies some kind of transfer in that set up, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, mahk_webstah said: check out wpc on that one. They show the high. they have pretty decent chances of snow north of the MA-NH border. And their projections improved overnight. Implies some kind of transfer in that set up, no? Yea that could be good qpf and high rates for you guys if it flattens just a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea that could be good qpf and high rates for you guys if it flattens just a tad seems like in that set up, there is a shot it will trend better...but never count on anything this winter fo sho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Doesn’t have anything to do with us but that looks like a monstrous storm over the North Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: check out wpc on that one. They show the high. they have pretty decent chances of snow north of the MA-NH border. And their projections improved overnight. Implies some kind of transfer in that set up, no? If it trends flatter it could be a good system....hopefully it does. Today's system was originally a cutter through Ottawa too, so if this one can go flatter, then it might be more prolific with a solid high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Doesn’t have anything to do with us but that looks like a monstrous storm over the North Atlantic Yeah. I’ve been watching that. Neat to see it from a distance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 As usually, Ukie flat as hell day 6. I don’t care what the stats say, that model Blows after day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: As usually, Ukie flat as hell day 6. I don’t care what the stats say, that model Blows after day 5. Not sure any op model is good beyond d5, especially this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As usually, Ukie flat as hell day 6. I don’t care what the stats say, that model Blows after day 5. unless it turns out to be right..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 12:50 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Snowy, snowy week upcoming. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Looks like a nice spring snow ending as cold rain trees caked 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 32 minutes ago, Whineminster said: unless it turns out to be right..... It wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks like a nice spring snow ending as cold rain trees caked 33 This is exactly how this impressed me this morning at dawn while clearing the hood of the car and windows. Spring glop. The air really smelled more like rain, and had the faux mild appeal to it, while as you say the trees and so forth were burdened with that cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Thankfully the cold shot is modifying (was never too impressive at H85 anyway) and then we can go back to a couple weeks of meh. Then there will be light at the end of this POS winter tunnel. Or that light is from a train of BDs and misery mist - typical April wx in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: As usually, Ukie flat as hell day 6. I don’t care what the stats say, that model Blows after day 5. LOL ... you know it's tru tho. The euro does this too to me at times. I catch it f-ing up with all this stuff, and then the verification comes out and it's in the lead. Whaaa I could argue the ICON did better for f-sake. jesus. I think what it is is that the verification is a Globally integrated scoring? Contrasting, we are focused over N/America; maybe there is something about that handling. I bet if someone clever created a Global color coded blue and red, bad versus good, performance... there would be a nazy blue hole over Cincinnati for D6, but the model would be salmon glory everywhere else.. kidding to some degree - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 Worst part of weak winters here is the feeling that it is March for about 5 straight months. Gross. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Worst part of weak winters here is the feeling that it is March for about 5 straight months. Gross. I honestly don’t kno how any snow lovers are alive and breathing in SE Areas this is London/ Seattle weather at least 2012 had a beautiful sunny summer stretch in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I honestly don’t kno how any snow lovers are alive and breathing in SE Areas this is London/ Seattle weather 19" here YTD, somehow. But I've learned to easily detach from investing too much time, espcially now that I'm married and have a toddler. This winter sucks, but winters like 06/07, 10/11, and 11/12 were worse for me because I was younger and more emotional. Being on the wrong side of a rain/snow line back then was rage inducing. I listed 10/11 because...well look where I lived. And if by SE you meant like the mid atlantic, then yeah me neither. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 The AO forecast is beyond ridiculous...+6 to +7SD....yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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