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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There are two ways to look at it. 1) aren't done, as in it will probably snow again  2) Not worth wasting time with a crap pattern.

I am option 2. There are really no good things at all going forward. I've moved on from the winter, it clearly just isn't working out..and not worth the time. For those who do...I salute you. You can convince me all you want until you turn blue in the face, but eventually....you stop fooling yourself in these types of winters. 

 

There's a third option and that's just keep moving forward and take whatever weather comes.  Sometime in April/May you look back and sum up the winter with empirical data and close the books.  Until then winter weather still happens.  There isn't a single poster on here (except for perhaps the passive aggressive ones) who is fooling themselves.  We're all just looking to see what the weather will be like in the future.  If there's nothing to see, there's nothing to see.

I get that there is nothing big to track but it's silly to think that you're not going to look at any guidance from now on.  If that's true, anyone who says it's a waste of time to look at anything has no right in posting opinions about upcoming weather because they have publicly stated that they are "not wasting any time on looking at guidance".  The fact that people continue to post just shows what a lie it is to say that.

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lynching Scooter for pointing out the winter is not putting on any clothes soon S of CNE

Easy with the lynching phrase there, but nobody is to Scoots. Day after day it’s the same thing. We get it. We know it sucks and doesnt look good going forward. Let’s just get a hold of our weenies a bit before they fall off. 

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1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

There's a third option and that's just keep moving forward and take whatever weather comes.  Sometime in April/May you look back and sum up the winter with empirical data and close the books.  Until then winter weather still happens.  There isn't a single poster on here (except for perhaps the passive aggressive ones) who is fooling themselves.  We're all just looking to see what the weather will be like in the future.  If there's nothing to see, there's nothing to see.

I get that there is nothing big to track but it's silly to think that you're not going to look at any guidance from now on.  If that's true, anyone who says it's a waste of time to look at anything has no right in posting opinions about upcoming weather because they have publicly stated that they are "not wasting any time on looking at guidance".  The fact that people continue to post just shows what a lie it is to say that.

Nice post Herb

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'll keep an eye on it...but I'm keeping expectations low. If we get a solid 30-40 mile tick south that looks consistent across model guidance, then I'll def start honking more....hard to see that happening though.

Still, we do get surprises in the positive direction on these sometimes. Just not this winter...lol. I'd feel a little more optimistic if the synoptics were good...we could really use a high holding firm to our north....even if that retreating high kind of hung on a little more in Maine/Nova Scotia, that might be enough. We've not been able to get the little nuances work for us very often....same longwave setup but with a little kink in the flow might produce a way more wintry result.....but we were due to regression. I feel like we've been overly lucky in the past decade-plus on front enders.

Yea great post. Have to see how this event evolves.  

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Quote

The Pattern you want is not always the Pattern you get. 

- Joe Cioffi

Even for those that us that get this one very lucky hit near the Valentines storm it is looking like a weak event with a fair 2-4" snowfall event.  But what comes after that is a strengthening SE Ridge and a whole lot of rain which is going to melt all the snow.  So other then adding stats to the snowfall pack what difference is it going to make in this pattern whether we get none or we get a few inches.  The real losers in this pattern is the winter industry beyond ski hills that live in a cold enough climate to make man made snow.  Everybody loses, (or wins if you are not a fan of winter) and this winter has lived up to that torch.  But mother nature brings cold winters and blow torches all the time.   And what we can see is that the pattern for now is set back into a normal climate regime where all those snowy winters for the SNE is an abnormal trend.  And if we are back onto the normal trend then the pattern of this year is a recurring every so many years of winter.  So expect more more normal AO+ winters and expect more normal AO-.  So what I am saying is that we are moving into a new cycle of something.  And if you are a snow lover time to cheer for the Eastern QBO and hope for cold and dryer conditions with enough snow to be sustaining on the ground for long periods of time.  And for next Christmas let it be white on the ground, it looks pretty that way with Christmas Lights on the deck with all that snow.

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8 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

There's a third option and that's just keep moving forward and take whatever weather comes.  Sometime in April/May you look back and sum up the winter with empirical data and close the books.  Until then winter weather still happens.  There isn't a single poster on here (except for perhaps the passive aggressive ones) who is fooling themselves.  We're all just looking to see what the weather will be like in the future.  If there's nothing to see, there's nothing to see.

I get that there is nothing big to track but it's silly to think that you're not going to look at any guidance from now on.  If that's true, anyone who says it's a waste of time to look at anything has no right in posting opinions about upcoming weather because they have publicly stated that they are "not wasting any time on looking at guidance".  The fact that people continue to post just shows what a lie it is to say that.

Verbatim, no. It's my job to do so. I think you know my point. It's just not a favorable time. So those looking at stuff every 6 hrs and checking in here....you won't see a lot of action...plenty of other stuff to work on. 

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember I responded to several of your melts in 2015-2016 with that....lol. Or I trolled you with excessive cold maps after a cutter (or during an SNE special) in January 2014 less than a year after you complained you weren't getting good cold shots. Haha.

Yeah lol that’s exactly what I was thinking of! 

Haha we can’t control the weather.  If you can’t laugh at it, time for a new hobby.  

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Just now, dendrite said:

Nice passive aggressive shot at me. No one was getting snow then. I’d rather have sun now too, but it is what it is. 

That wasn't directed at you, And i know your reasons why you don't care if it does or doesn't snow, But there are others in here that have been pretty outspoken about this winter, And it hasn't been the greatest one up here either but just deal with the hand were dealt and continue on.

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Just now, dryslot said:

That wasn't directed at you, And i know your reasons why you don't care if it does or doesn't snow, But there are others in here that have been pretty outspoken about this winter, And it hasn't been the greatest one up here either but just deal with the hand were dealt and continue on.

Yeah. I understand many are frustrated. The posts in here don’t really bother me. It just gives me a laugh each morning. Ironically we’re approaching the deepest of our winter so far with the cold, pack, and frequency of snow events. 

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