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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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55 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If it was a meh winter through mid Feb and then we got a 20" storm in late Feb, some people would be saying it saved winter.

It varies. Like if we get two KU’s mixed in with warmth to close it out, it’s great but winter overall sucked. But two KUs with cold and staying power until Apr would definately help erase the 60 day heart of the season misery. I still wouldn’t grade it higher than an 80 even if I end up with AN snow.

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6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t hate the gfs look... probably would make a lot of people happy here... high end advisory type stuff 

Would be nice to even get 2-4” of white on the ground because that cold shot behind it is legit. Prob below zero lows for a chunk of SNE. Nothing worse than frigid cold with bare ground. 

Im still pretty skeptical on this event because that little low up in Canada sneaks in between our two highs. It’s literally the worst possible timing for it. Otherwise we’d prob be talking low end warning...that high doesn’t just hold the cold in, it would increase frontogenetic forcing and wring out more QPF. 

But beggars can’t be choosers...

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Would be nice to even get 2-4” of white on the ground because that cold shot behind it is legit. Prob below zero lows for a chunk of SNE. Nothing worse than frigid cold with bare ground. 

Im still pretty skeptical on this event because that little low up in Canada sneaks in between our two highs. It’s literally the worst possible timing for it. Otherwise we’d prob be talking low end warning...that high doesn’t just hold the cold in, it would increase frontogenetic forcing and wring out more QPF. 

But beggars can’t be choosers...

Scoot had to go and usher winter back in this morning. Bastard.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I keep it real too. If it sucks it sucks. Other than early December, this is as brutal as it gets. It’s been a torch, very little to track, and every event that has been on the models within a week or so has trended to crap. Shit winter. And it continues to rhea on our heads going forward. 

I was extremely bullish from the beginning on the Early dec storm , other than that the other shoe has dropped and dropped and dropped for the last 6 weeks . Sorry folks . It’s reality .

If I wrote a seasonal outlook that weighted heavily from Feb 20 on I would stick to it , but this has been a suck fest for a while in the middle of winter in a snow forum .

The posts should reflect that . People like to place opinions at extremes or either /or’s...makes them able  to classify them and easy to rewrite their thoughts to respond with their passive aggressive mumbo jumbo  and keep head in sand .

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Nice post, we have no control over weather. But even the Mets here and on Twitter , have been saying major pattern change, late January, then February now early March, the the weeklies show, now it’s not going to happen, I know this should be on the banter thread like many others have complained today, but weather is what it is and does what it does and surprises even the seasoned Mets and hobbyist. Seems most models have been off even near or at game time if that’s fair to say? Can someone tell me which model has been the best so far this season following up to game time?

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we get hardly anymore snow, then that will def. put a dent in my outlook, but I'm happy with my effort. Its been warmer than I had expected, but point me in the direction of the individual that explicitly called for +7 departures from 12-20 through 2-8...tough to predict that magnitude of anomaly at 3 months lead. I did explicitly state that mid winter would blow beginning just before the holidays, and that winter's return would be contingent upon the arctic and Atlantic because the PAC would remain hostile. Arctic and Atlantic haven't helped, so we continue to bake and boring.

 

Concur. I am very satisfied as well. My index forecasts [+NAO,-PNA,+EPO,-PDO] and hemispheric pattern hit well, as well as the warmth and snow anomalies for much of the country. My primary flaw to date was not going warm enough. As you mentioned, hitting high magnitude anomalies from advanced leads is extremely difficult. I did see some signals for a record type warmth winter -- so my only regret will be not going even warmer. Snowfall wise, the anomalies are doing well, and again, it has actually been a bit less than even I anticipated. However, I do still see *potential* for amelioration toward the end of February and March, i.e., transition from hostile to mediocre. But we shall see.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is actually not bad N of pike for Thursday. Gets advisory snows it looks like (disclaimer: didn’t look at sfc temps....only 850 and 925)

Still kind of an ugly system but I’m just the messenger. 

Looked like sn to ip to sn at ORH to me from the pivotal soundings.

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32 minutes ago, apm said:

If that's accurate, those have to be historic obs even for that elevation.

From there AFD.

 

The peak wind of the day so far was at the top of Kirkwood  
  Mountain with a gust of 209 mph. If this observation is verified 
  as accurate, then that could be the new California record high 
  wind! This is an unofficial measurement until it is certified as  
  accurate.  
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7 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

From there AFD.

 


The peak wind of the day so far was at the top of Kirkwood  
  Mountain with a gust of 209 mph. If this observation is verified 
  as accurate, then that could be the new California record high 
  wind! This is an unofficial measurement until it is certified as  
  accurate.  

I'm guessing the lift was closed. ;)

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