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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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Just now, MJO812 said:

Wow

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 4 feet across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 1 to 2 feet for
  surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 to 60
  mph will result in severe blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 4 PM EST Friday.

Insane.

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4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

when something shows something that goes against snow/cold it ruffles feathers 

Wrong, So you buying what CPC is selling for the next 15 mos? I for one, Don't waste anytime on any seasonal model or even the weeklies as far as that goes, We have deterministic models that run 4 times a day that can't get forecasting correct over short periods never mind weeks and months in advance.

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Seems like forever since we've even seen a Winter Storm Warning for SNE...let alone a Blizzard Warning.  Dam that sucks for us :-(

Last winter storm warning that went all the way down to the shore of CT was Mar 3-4 2019. Last blizzard warning was Mar 14 2017 bust, unverified. 

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24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Wrong, So you buying what CPC is selling for the next 15 mos? I for one, Don't waste anytime on any seasonal model or even the weeklies as far as that goes, We have deterministic models that run 4 times a day that can't get forecasting correct over short periods never mind weeks and months in advance.

But you can’t compare long-range/seasonal models with short-term models. They’re completely different in terms of parameterizations, equations, physics, etc. 

Statistically climate models are more likely to be accurate. 
 

but in terms of buying what the CPC is showing for 15-months...it has nothing to do with buying or selling...it’s not like they’re just pulling this out of their ass. Significant amount of work goes into the construction of these forecasts. Will every month end as so...perhaps not. But the fact of the matter is, given the climate regime we’re in AN is going to win out over BN. 
 

further complicating matters is analogs and these correlations that were once a thing are losing merit b/c we’re continuing to find ways to yield temperatures overall which are warmer than average. 

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That email from the Blue Hill Observatory regarding Boston’s temperatures was interesting.  

You can tell they are preemptively trying to tell all Boston METS to stay away from the BOS readings for ranking this Meteorological Winter’s temperatures on March 1st.  

Dear Friends,

When it comes to the weather—it is an exciting time in Greater Boston as we are on the cusp of another seasonal change.

Typically on the last day of February many of Boston’s meteorologist will lead their forecasts with the question—“Was this the warmest winter (December-February) on record?”

To answer that question accurately, we remind our friends in meteorology to reference Blue Hill Observatory's long-term and consistent recordnot the Boston record that has been seriously compromised....

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11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Last winter storm warning that went all the way down to the shore of CT was Mar 3-4 2019. Last blizzard warning was Mar 14 2017 bust, unverified. 

Last blizzard warning here was Feb. 14, 2015.  That didn't verify either - 1.5" (1/8 of low end of forecast range) with little wind. 
(Pi day 2017 did reach blizz criteria for 5-6 hours - only the 4th to do so in 22 winters - but wasn't blizz-warned.)

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That email from the Blue Hill Observatory regarding Boston’s temperatures was interesting.  

You can tell they are preemptively trying to tell all Boston METS to stay away from the BOS readings for ranking this Meteorological Winter’s temperatures on March 1st.  

Dear Friends,

When it comes to the weather—it is an exciting time in Greater Boston as we are on the cusp of another seasonal change.

Typically on the last day of February many of Boston’s meteorologist will lead their forecasts with the question—“Was this the warmest winter (December-February) on record?”

To answer that question accurately, we remind our friends in meteorology to reference Blue Hill Observatory's long-term and consistent recordnot the Boston record that has been seriously compromised....

Did Scooter hack there Email

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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Did Scooter hack there Email

Ha reads like it. 

But I do think it’s a nice attempt to get ahead of all the on-air Mets telling millions of folks how hot it’s been this winter.  It’s been warm enough without a +2 headstart.

Figure I might as well post the second half highlights...

“Ranging from a 337-foot rooftop observation platform atop the Post Office building in downtown Boston to the current ground level site between two major runways at Logan Airport with its inherent seaside variability, the environmental conditions that have been monitored do not represent the changing Boston urban environment. "

The undesirable locations of equipment and hostile environments have resulted in data that is unreliable and should not be used for long-term climate study.

 As Blue Hill Observatory's records represent the longest, most consistent temperature record in North America we welcome the use of our data to better inform meteorology and the community.

Warm Regards

Charles Orloff

Executive Director 

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