OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Cpc had equal chances across the northern tier/western great lakes and warm anomalies for the southern 2/3 and the pac nw and new england in the fall in advance of winter. It's actually the only area of the country they missed on because they were too "cold." They missed the high precipitation anomalies across the southeast. Did well with the precipitation anomalies in the great lakes. They also missed the positive precipitation anomalies in the pac nw. Good forecast this winter overall I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 18 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: It's the new TW(CC)Channel 15 month business planner...soon to have all the named storms for said 15 months!! Buy 1 planner get 2 planners free. Offer is only available during episodes of Highway Thru Hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 minute ago, MetHerb said: I don't think it's that. I know it's shown BN temps and AN precip in the winter and it's not worked out. I think the angst has more to do with being able to predict something so far out. I do agree that there are biased people but that's on both sides of the spectrum. Does anyone have any numbers on accurate the CPC's calls are in different time frames? I wonder too what the process is behind their seasonal outlooks...do they have folks who specialize in seasonal outlooks or are they mostly derived from long-range seasonal forecast models? I've always been under the impression it is the later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 For further illustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 The ukmet and ecwmf seasonal were both good highlighting that wet area over the southeast in their October forecasts. I believe generally all the agencies and models were too cold over the north-central us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Sure 25 to 50 % of normal here. No snow pack to melt. This wet period coming up will help a lot When did you move to SE Mass? (jk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I wonder too what the process is behind their seasonal outlooks...do they have folks who specialize in seasonal outlooks or are they mostly derived from long-range seasonal forecast models? I've always been under the impression it is the later. They have plenty of mjo and enso regression analysis on their website. They're not just blending models or using the cfs. They know just as much as anyone else out there re: seasonal forecast which is still to say not that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, Hazey said: Agreed. Nothing to say this won't or can't happen and if there is a CC element to it, could be the new norm. We'll see. Given recent temp trends, guess AN and rack up accuracy points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: when something shows something that goes against snow/cold it ruffles feathers How did you come up with this? All we saying is such extended experimenting outlooks should be taken with a grain of salt...even if it showed uber cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: They have plenty of mjo and enso regression analysis on their website. They're not just blending models or using the cfs. They know just as much as anyone else out there re: seasonal forecast which is still to say not that much. They have added some awesome MJO and ENSO re-analysis and regression products over the past several years...I feel like they've really stepped it up quite a bit with their seasonal forecasting products/research. Were they involved with the AAM data/research or was that another division? It's a shame the individuals who were doing research and providing plots/data retired and they had nobody to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: Given recent temp trends, guess AN and rack up accuracy points. Winter has been more half and half I believe lately but definitely better to go "orange" every other season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: How did you come up with this? All we saying is such extended experimenting outlooks should be taken with a grain of salt...even if it showed uber cold. A combination of all sources...here + social media. It's been known for years that across all weather platforms individuals who aren't in the camp of snow/cold get ridiculed. Some of the big time posters from here left b/c of being attached (mainly in NYC threads) anytime they would post something that was against such scenarios. If you follow twitter closely it happens there too...folks that do alot with long-range any time they are not going cold/snow people jump all over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: How did you come up with this? All we saying is such extended experimenting outlooks should be taken with a grain of salt...even if it showed uber cold. Agree. Why would any 15 month forecast ruffle anyone's feathers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: How did you come up with this? All we saying is such extended experimenting outlooks should be taken with a grain of salt...even if it showed uber cold. Hmm. I see a bunch of posts from the last page or two that dont say that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Do energy mets on twitter tend to show biases one way or the other? I could understand why... or those who get $ from certain businesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Hmm. I see a bunch of posts from the last page or two that dont say that at all. Did anyone say it is wrong because it shows warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 We just started forecasting for Maine DOT. Should be a fun and interesting challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: A combination of all sources...here + social media. It's been known for years that across all weather platforms individuals who aren't in the camp of snow/cold get ridiculed. Some of the big time posters from here left b/c of being attached (mainly in NYC threads) anytime they would post something that was against such scenarios. If you follow twitter closely it happens there too...folks that do alot with long-range any time they are not going cold/snow people jump all over them. You let SM bother you too much. Should stay off of it, if so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Did anyone say it is wrong because it shows warmth? There were posts saying they were always warm. Not sure what to tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: There were posts saying they were always warm. Not sure what to tell you. Right but that doesn’t mean ACATT feathers were ruffled. That’s my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Right but that doesn’t mean ACATT feathers were ruffled. That’s my point. Okay. Paul is right there is a segment of people including people on this site who think the cpc is always warm and it's part of some agw agenda. But that just isn't true. That's all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Do energy mets on twitter tend to show biases one way or the other? I could understand why... or those who get $ from certain businesses With Wall Street involved w weather via commodity prices they pay weather “influencers” very well , and they will lobby for new and bigger loopholes ...I just wonder if the bosses of the big trading firms determine when forecasters send tweets and wether they are encouraged to look for certain weather outlooks that support their positions . Let me change the last sentence, I wonder who is bought and to what degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Okay. Paul is right there is a segment of people including people on this site who think the cpc is always warm and it's part of some agw agenda. But that just isn't true. That's all I'm saying. Ah. Yea I get your point. I don’t pay any attention to the CC agendas as those discussions never amount to anything. Opinions don’t change. I only originally posted the link as a fwiw and found the AN forecasts interesting. I also don’t look it that often enough to make a claim that the CPC is always warm or not. I know the CFS monthlies usually are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 42 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You let SM bother you too much. Should stay off of it, if so. This is actually very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is actually very true I only periodically check but rarely get involved. There really isn’t a benefit unless you are promoting yourself, your company, or your profession. Otherwise it simply a platform for folks to spew their opinions without much of an educational value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I only periodically check but rarely get involved. There really isn’t a benefit unless you are promoting yourself, your company, or your profession. Otherwise it simply a platform for folks to spew their opinions without much of an educational value. social media I think is bad news. There's certainly some good with it but I often debate with myself if the value outweighs the bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: social media I think is bad news. There's certainly some good with it but I often debate with myself if the value outweighs the bad. We got on SM years ago because we were still on dial-up and grandkid pics took 10-15 minutes to download as e-mail attachments. FB would download in 60 seconds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 hour ago, tamarack said: When did you move to SE Mass? (jk) Lol meaning SNE here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: social media I think is bad news. There's certainly some good with it but I often debate with myself if the value outweighs the bad. You are exactly correct Wiz. Waste of time..full of nonsense mostly. Yes some good, but more negatives that make it not worth the effort imo. Bad far outweighs the good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Wow ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 feet across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 1 to 2 feet for surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 to 60 mph will result in severe blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 4 PM EST Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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