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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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15 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Weak. Anyway you've checked out, see you in spring.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

You missed the point hence the whoosh. Posting here is fine and should continue. What shouldn’t is wasting time tracking snow in what is a horrendously unfavorable pattern for SNE. You’ve got a pig in Alaska, a super strong SE ridge, a massive + AO and no blocking . This setup this month is as bad as it gets. But that doesn’t mean don’t post for social interaction 

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You missed the point hence the whoosh. Posting here is fine and should continue. What shouldn’t is wasting time tracking snow in what is a horrendously unfavorable pattern for SNE. You’ve got a pig in Alaska, a super strong SE ridge, a massive + AO and no blocking . This setup this month is as bad as it gets. But that doesn’t mean don’t post for social interaction 
I guess my point was more to let folks discuss snow chances if they want. We dont need the forget it about posts. Its all good, let's have fun.. snow or no snow

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6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

I guess my point was more to let folks discuss snow chances if they want. We dont need the forget it about posts. Its all good, let's have fun.. snow or no snow

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What’s surprising to me is Will. I mean with as unfavorable a pattern as we can get, he’s still on board for snow. He always told us if the pig sits in AK, we are toast. We’ve had 3-5” of snow since Dec. Its Feb 7th. The models blew every single pattern change, every single snow event. I’m not saying stop looking. Talk snow. But it doesn’t take a degreed Met to look at the global pattern to know SNE is out of the game 

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48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nobody is buying the new Kevin act. Lol. He’s just saying it’s over so he won’t become emotionally invested too early like usual locking in some tedious setup at t days out. 

I actually applaud the tactic. It will make him wait until inside of about 3 days until he is “back on board”. 

He'll be the first one locking in 6-12" once we have a 4-8" threat imminent.

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I didn’t forecast a great period. I’m just not making stupid posts about snow being done for the season. 

 

Same. I'm not calling for anything epic. Maybe another 30" between now and the end of the season....which is like slightly above normal. This was always the risk during the second half, though if we didn't get blocking because RNA was a slam dunk IMO. I explicitly mentioned this in my write up.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same. I'm not calling for anything epic. Maybe another 30" between now and the end of the season....which is like slightly above normal. This was always the risk during the second half, though if we didn't get blocking because RNA was a slam dunk IMO. I explicitly mentioned this in my write up.

30” would surprise me. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is lousy going forward. 

Long range guidance has been crying wolf all season on a good pattern, so I wouldn't view that as  a death knell. Don't get me wrong...I'm not trying to be an a$$ like last season and make guarantees.....maybe it will be worse than forecast...its certainly possible. But I feel like something will work out.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS def got worse today in the 11-15. But it’s also true they’ve been pretty bad in that timeframe this season. 

So we’ll take it a day at a time and see what it looks like once we get inside d10. 

I don't understand the concept of tossing a storm/pattern at the 384hr yet we're supposed to take it verbatim in that time frame when it looks like crap?  I agree with waiting till it's inside a more reasonable range.  What that is this winter is anyone's guess.

I'll take a wager that we're not done with snow.  I do think that later this month and March can produce.  Met winter ends on 3/1 and then it's on to Spring.  It still snows in Spring but until 3/1 winter is not over over.

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Just now, MetHerb said:

I don't understand the concept of tossing a storm/pattern at the 384hr yet we're supposed to take it verbatim in that time frame when it looks like crap?  I agree with waiting till it's inside a more reasonable range.  What that is this winter is anyone's guess.

I'll take a wager that we're not done with snow.  I do think that later this month and March can produce.  Met winter ends on 3/1 and then it's on to Spring.  It still snows in Spring but until 3/1 winter is not over over.

I’d like to see some agreement too. EPS in the 11-15 flipped to more hostile the past two runs but the GEFS and GEPS look quite a bit different. That tells me there are some pretty big uncertainties. 

I understand the sentiment that this winter won’t produce much considering what’s happened the past 7-8 weeks and the look going forward isn’t coming up triple 7s....but I’m not gonna pretend that we know that we’re not going to get a good storm either. Pretty silly actually on 2/7. For all we know, the landscape could totally change by Presidents’ Day. 

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS def got worse today in the 11-15. But it’s also true they’ve been pretty bad in that timeframe this season. 

So we’ll take it a day at a time and see what it looks like once we get inside d10. 

My Asia trip got cancelled because of Corona virus, was hoping for some good snows in February, hope our luck changes.

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d like to see some agreement too. EPS in the 11-15 flipped to more hostile the past two runs but the GEFS and GEPS look quite a bit different. That tells me there are some pretty big uncertainties. 

I understand the sentiment that this winter won’t produce much considering what’s happened the past 7-8 weeks and the look going forward isn’t coming up triple 7s....but I’m not gonna pretend that we know that we’re not going to get a good storm either. Pretty silly actually on 2/7. For all we know, the landscape could totally change by Presidents’ Day. 

This.

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36 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I don't understand the concept of tossing a storm/pattern at the 384hr yet we're supposed to take it verbatim in that time frame when it looks like crap?  I agree with waiting till it's inside a more reasonable range.  What that is this winter is anyone's guess.

I'll take a wager that we're not done with snow.  I do think that later this month and March can produce.  Met winter ends on 3/1 and then it's on to Spring.  It still snows in Spring but until 3/1 winter is not over over.

And this. 

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