TJW014 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Wow ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 feet across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 1 to 2 feet for surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 to 60 mph will result in severe blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 4 PM EST Friday. Insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Insane.Must be nice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Seems like forever since we've even seen a Winter Storm Warning for SNE...let alone a Blizzard Warning. Dam that sucks for us :-( 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Tug hill gon’ tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: when something shows something that goes against snow/cold it ruffles feathers It's got nothing to do with a cold or warm or other bias. 15 month maps are plain ridiculous. Sorry, that is my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 24 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: It's got nothing to do with a cold or warm or other bias. 15 month maps are plain ridiculous. Sorry, that is my opinion. Well, considering no model did great this year on 10 day forecast why even look at forecast for three months out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You let S&M bother you too much. Should stay off of it, if so. Hey we don't judge here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Tug hill gon’ tug. Can’t tug without a rub. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Well, considering no model did great this year on 10 day forecast why even look at forecast for three months out? Long-range and climate models actually have a better skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 4 hours ago, weatherwiz said: when something shows something that goes against snow/cold it ruffles feathers Wrong, So you buying what CPC is selling for the next 15 mos? I for one, Don't waste anytime on any seasonal model or even the weeklies as far as that goes, We have deterministic models that run 4 times a day that can't get forecasting correct over short periods never mind weeks and months in advance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Long-range and climate models actually have a better skill. If so (and I don't know the verification rates) it's at the expense of precision. "55% chance of AN temps" offers a lot less info than "60s on D7". (Or 2-4" tomorrow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Well, considering no model did great this year on 10 day forecast why even look at forecast for three months out? True, but why even create such nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Seems like forever since we've even seen a Winter Storm Warning for SNE...let alone a Blizzard Warning. Dam that sucks for us :-( Last winter storm warning that went all the way down to the shore of CT was Mar 3-4 2019. Last blizzard warning was Mar 14 2017 bust, unverified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 24 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wrong, So you buying what CPC is selling for the next 15 mos? I for one, Don't waste anytime on any seasonal model or even the weeklies as far as that goes, We have deterministic models that run 4 times a day that can't get forecasting correct over short periods never mind weeks and months in advance. But you can’t compare long-range/seasonal models with short-term models. They’re completely different in terms of parameterizations, equations, physics, etc. Statistically climate models are more likely to be accurate. but in terms of buying what the CPC is showing for 15-months...it has nothing to do with buying or selling...it’s not like they’re just pulling this out of their ass. Significant amount of work goes into the construction of these forecasts. Will every month end as so...perhaps not. But the fact of the matter is, given the climate regime we’re in AN is going to win out over BN. further complicating matters is analogs and these correlations that were once a thing are losing merit b/c we’re continuing to find ways to yield temperatures overall which are warmer than average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 That email from the Blue Hill Observatory regarding Boston’s temperatures was interesting. You can tell they are preemptively trying to tell all Boston METS to stay away from the BOS readings for ranking this Meteorological Winter’s temperatures on March 1st. Dear Friends, When it comes to the weather—it is an exciting time in Greater Boston as we are on the cusp of another seasonal change. Typically on the last day of February many of Boston’s meteorologist will lead their forecasts with the question—“Was this the warmest winter (December-February) on record?” To answer that question accurately, we remind our friends in meteorology to reference Blue Hill Observatory's long-term and consistent record—not the Boston record that has been seriously compromised.... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Last winter storm warning that went all the way down to the shore of CT was Mar 3-4 2019. Last blizzard warning was Mar 14 2017 bust, unverified. Last blizzard warning here was Feb. 14, 2015. That didn't verify either - 1.5" (1/8 of low end of forecast range) with little wind. (Pi day 2017 did reach blizz criteria for 5-6 hours - only the 4th to do so in 22 winters - but wasn't blizz-warned.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That email from the Blue Hill Observatory regarding Boston’s temperatures was interesting. You can tell they are preemptively trying to tell all Boston METS to stay away from the BOS readings for ranking this Meteorological Winter’s temperatures on March 1st. Dear Friends, When it comes to the weather—it is an exciting time in Greater Boston as we are on the cusp of another seasonal change. Typically on the last day of February many of Boston’s meteorologist will lead their forecasts with the question—“Was this the warmest winter (December-February) on record?” To answer that question accurately, we remind our friends in meteorology to reference Blue Hill Observatory's long-term and consistent record—not the Boston record that has been seriously compromised.... Did Scooter hack there Email 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did Scooter hack there Email Ha reads like it. But I do think it’s a nice attempt to get ahead of all the on-air Mets telling millions of folks how hot it’s been this winter. It’s been warm enough without a +2 headstart. Figure I might as well post the second half highlights... “Ranging from a 337-foot rooftop observation platform atop the Post Office building in downtown Boston to the current ground level site between two major runways at Logan Airport with its inherent seaside variability, the environmental conditions that have been monitored do not represent the changing Boston urban environment. " The undesirable locations of equipment and hostile environments have resulted in data that is unreliable and should not be used for long-term climate study. As Blue Hill Observatory's records represent the longest, most consistent temperature record in North America we welcome the use of our data to better inform meteorology and the community. Warm Regards Charles Orloff Executive Director [email protected] 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Only thing Charles left off was the mic drop. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Long-range and climate models actually have a better skill. they're comparing apples and oranges 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 4 hours ago, WinterWolf said: You are exactly correct Wiz. Waste of time..full of nonsense mostly. Yes some good, but more negatives that make it not worth the effort imo. Bad far outweighs the good. posted from....social media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Only thing Charles left off was the mic drop. Fisher is pissed I posted the letter. He says he mentions it all the time. His previous tweet was saying Bostons 2nd warmest winter. I think Blue Hill is 8th or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Thank you Charlie. Scooter knows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Thank you Charlie. Scooter knows. We tried to tell them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Anger and death threats here? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 58 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: posted from....social media This is not social media..this is a weather forum. We’re here to discuss the weather, not promote ourselves, advertise etc... There is a difference. Social media is Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat etc. Thats the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 That is excellent by Charlie. Anyone who looks at a lot of climate data would notice how bad BOS is sticking out the past 18 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This is not social media..this is a weather forum. We’re here to discuss the weather, not promote ourselves, advertise etc... There is a difference. Social media is Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat etc. Thats the point. okay but, nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Hard to believe the amount of bugs and moths flying around. Inside the car and on Sunday and Monday everywhere outside. Driving around this week up to BOS area and back , crazy amount of bug splat on the windshield . Causing me to clean them off like a summer evening. I mean wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 29 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: okay but, nah https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN20K1O7?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR3yZa6aBslEWl83NkYSW_xSdq2hhZKycf5EqtxmHLx8p_CMmBbQWRNHkgw 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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