Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 12:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said: If it’s dry and warm sure Expand If wishes were dishes we would all be fat. Its gonna do what it wants to do. I hope you have today off. Spectacular day in store will definitely be tanning the nape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 12:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said: If it’s dry and warm sure Expand I hope it's cold and damp.. not ready for the heat yet.. I would only want it really hot if it meant ocean temps warmed enough to bring a major cane up this summer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:01 PM, Ginx snewx said: If wishes were dishes we would all be fat. Its gonna do what it wants to do. I hope you have today off. Spectacular day in store will definitely be tanning the nape. Expand I actually do. My oldest is going for her license. I’m waiting with her now to take the road test. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:01 PM, ineedsnow said: I hope it's cold and damp.. not ready for the heat yet.. I would only want it really hot if it meant ocean temps warmed enough to bring a major cane up this summer Expand You also like cold drizzle in the summer , so this doesn’t shock anyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 12:10 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: To be fair though, does some cat paws in May really save the season? I mean, it’s been wretched. Your statistics even back that up... 8” between 12/20 and now? Yuck... does t get much worse than that. Most folks got half their snow in an event the first days of December, little since. I know people are trying to spin this as not so bad because of the early December event but I mean, come on, it’s been awful ever since. I don’t get the odd need for many to defend this winter, especially south of like hubb and Hippie Expand Yeah, I'm not saying that snow in May "saved" the season. Far from it. It's just a cautionary tale to anyone calling for no more snow on 2/24. For a time it might look right and then feel safe when well into April it starts getting hot. You might even be tempted to even make an early call for the "hottest summer ever" but then a few weeks later the ground is coated with this stuff that you said wouldn't fall any more. I'm also not spinning anything. It's been crappy since 12/20 snow wise but the fact is when looked at it's totality we've had warmer and less snowier seasons. I think we're on to spring and that we'll add to our seasonal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I actually do. My oldest is going for her license. I’m waiting with her now to take the road test. Expand Goodluck hope she gets it! On 2/24/2020 at 1:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You also like cold drizzle in the summer , so this doesn’t shock anyone here. Expand My dream summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 2:31 AM, powderfreak said: This is real bad in your area and over to Kev's and southward... for sure. You guys lucked out in 2015-16 and were still in that pattern of any coastal low will smoke SNE, despite the really bad pattern. 2015-16 was MUCH worse up here by a factor of probably 10, as we didn't have snow on the ground like most of that winter it seemed. This winter we've kept snow cover for pretty much the entire winter still. But down by you guys, I have to imagine this one is up there with 2011-12 and 2001-02. Those winters I think had warmer temps but if it won't snow, that probably makes it better? Expand This one was actually worse than 2011/2012 There were only 2 events that winter, however they were larger and lead to a greater seasonal snowfall total. 2001/2002 horrific. I believe this winter is the 3rd lowest snowfall total in my lifetime (do not have the totals from the 1980s, however using central park as a guide by adding 10% to their totals no winter in the 80s was worse than this). 2015/2016 actually ended up average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:01 PM, Ginx snewx said: If wishes were dishes we would all be fat. Its gonna do what it wants to do. I hope you have today off. Spectacular day in store will definitely be tanning the nape. Expand I wish I was off. Should be another great sap run today as temps were in the teens this morning. They've been running great the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Its a milestone when the kids get their driver license. Soon after they start leaving the nest. Bittersweet. Gorgeous day on tap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I actually do. My oldest is going for her license. I’m waiting with her now to take the road test. Expand Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Man those who wish for cold and drizzle in summer....what happened to you as a child? I feel a lot like Kevin lately which is highly disturbing to admit...but let summer be summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 12:28 PM, dendrite said: Still think it ends up a cold rain up here or at least no appreciable accums. Gene may have to watch out. Expand I think this is an all snow event for you. Wedge looks very legit; first significant one in a while. Triple point wedge, with the surface reflection tracking south/east of PSM. I think down to ORH out to the Berks needs to watch this closely as well. I’m now expecting a mess imby. Mostly frozen. Hope I’m wrong though. Ready for spring unless it’s a MECS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I actually do. My oldest is going for her license. I’m waiting with her now to take the road test. Expand Nice. Its always great when you can say, hey we need something at the store drive down and get it. Lol, man they grow so fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 It's a close call for Brian. Someone near Brian or just north is gonna get a hell of a plastering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Man those who wish for cold and drizzle in summer....what happened to you as a child? I feel a lot like Kevin lately which is highly disturbing to admit...but let summer be summer. Expand You live near a beach.. I live in the valley of hell.. honestly I would love to live in northern vermont.. by far one of the best summer climates.. my grandfather use to have a place on this lake in southern Quebec just over the border in Baldwin mills on the south side... There was a golf course behind his house and if you went to the 13th green could walk into the Untied states.. that's my ideal location! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:35 PM, ineedsnow said: You live near a beach.. I live in the valley of hell.. honestly I would love to live in northern vermont.. by far one of the best summer climates.. my grandfather use to have a place on this lake in southern Quebec just over the border in Baldwin mills on the south side... There was a golf course behind his house and if you went to the 13th green could walk into the Untied states.. that's my ideal location! Expand Just go to the lake Sugarloaf likes to skinny dip in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 May want to hold off on that until mid august to minimize the shrinkage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 I thought Enfield had the climate of Thule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:18 PM, CoastalWx said: Oh boy. Expand Not ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Man those who wish for cold and drizzle in summer....what happened to you as a child? I feel a lot like Kevin lately which is highly disturbing to admit...but let summer be summer. Expand It’s natural . Au natural.. like a nice pair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:29 PM, Ginx snewx said: Nice. Its always great when you can say, hey we need something at the store drive down and get it. Lol, man they grow so fast Expand It goes by in the blink of an eye. Working on getting her a car . Just another payment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Are we still holding out hope that these D10+ pattern changes are going to verify? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 2:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It goes by in the blink of an eye. Working on getting her a car . Just another payment Expand Just sell more March 2012 analogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 2:14 PM, weatherwiz said: Are we still holding out hope that these D10+ pattern changes are going to verify? Expand AO is actually already crashing...and will be down 4-5 SD (!!!) from what it was a couple days ago soon....you actually said it wouldn't do that and couldn't see how it would crash down. Now, it's still not a good pattern, but it definitely is changing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 2:20 PM, ORH_wxman said: AO is actually already crashing...and will be down 4-5 SD (!!!) from what it was a couple days ago soon....you actually said it wouldn't do that and couldn't see how it would crash down. Now, it's still not a good pattern, but it definitely is changing. Expand I'd think the EPS torch has a better chance than any prolonged wintry stretch given the persistence of the poor pattern the last 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 1:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You also like cold drizzle in the summer , so this doesn’t shock anyone here. Expand I like that too, but I had lots of trauma as a kid too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 I can see cold drizzle in November but spring and summer? I’ll never fully understand that preference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 2:20 PM, ORH_wxman said: AO is actually already crashing...and will be down 4-5 SD (!!!) from what it was a couple days ago soon....you actually said it wouldn't do that and couldn't see how it would crash down. Now, it's still not a good pattern, but it definitely is changing. Expand Correct me if I am wrong here but this was/is my thinking regarding the change. 1) When looking at the hard numbers or the forecast chart (such as below) you see a big drop coming...not only big but rather quickly But when I see "change" I look at it two ways... 1) What is causing the change? 2) Is the structure of the "big picture" changing? In assessing these two questions, what I gather is 1) There is some transient ridging which evolves and traverses the southern portion of the AO domain which leads to the big drop in AO which is further enhanced by the rather positive anomalies associated with the heights. 2) The big picture is not changing which is why it is still not a good pattern. The structure of the AO and Arctic domain remains...the TPV still remains quite strong, however, the most negative height anomalies just push a bit towards the opposite side of the pole (hence the "drop in AO"). Look what happens after this drop...the AO spikes right back up as that transient ridging either weakens or pushes east of the AO domain. I would even bet that when this drop peaks it ends up being slightly higher than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 2:14 PM, weatherwiz said: Are we still holding out hope that these D10+ pattern changes are going to verify? Expand Can’t wait for our first d7 low topped convection thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/24/2020 at 2:40 PM, weatherwiz said: Correct me if I am wrong here but this was/is my thinking regarding the change. 1) When looking at the hard numbers or the forecast chart (such as below) you see a big drop coming...not only big but rather quickly But when I see "change" I look at it two ways... 1) What is causing the change? 2) Is the structure of the "big picture" changing? In assessing these two questions, what I gather is 1) There is some transient ridging which evolves and traverses the southern portion of the AO domain which leads to the big drop in AO which is further enhanced by the rather positive anomalies associated with the heights. 2) The big picture is not changing which is why it is still not a good pattern. The structure of the AO and Arctic domain remains...the TPV still remains quite strong, however, the most negative height anomalies just push a bit towards the opposite side of the pole (hence the "drop in AO"). Look what happens after this drop...the AO spikes right back up as that transient ridging either weakens or pushes east of the AO domain. I would even bet that when this drop peaks it ends up being slightly higher than forecast. Expand Ok, this is a bit different than your claim last week when you were going nuts on anyone who mentioned how the AO would be relaxing....which it clearly is. Does it necessarily mean snow? Of course not and we said that at the time...but it's less hostile than it was. It is still a somewhat ugly pattern, but it wouldn't surprise me if we get a snow event in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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