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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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  On 2/6/2020 at 10:51 PM, OSUmetstud said:

It looks -pna/+nao through week 4. Week 5 and 6 are a bit more neutral but certainly not cold. 

hopeecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-nao-box-0947200.png

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A slightly positive NAO is not all that bad for points north of Boston.  But how negative is the pna going to be?  As from looking into the Environment Canada records I have noticed years where the PNA was negative and we still got crushed with snow events through the maritimes.  

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  On 2/6/2020 at 10:51 PM, OSUmetstud said:

It looks -pna/+nao through week 4. Week 5 and 6 are a bit more neutral but certainly not cold. 

ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-nao-box-0947200.png

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2m temps didn’t look bad to me on the weeklies. Yes, not bone chilling but after the 20th temps in sne are normal. We would fight the southeast ridge at times but it looks to get knocked down. Here are a few h5 maps and one that shows the weak -nao in March. Imo better then 6 weeks of the same pattern that was being depicted on Monday. Obviously, this is to be taken with a grain of salt 

 

A140F5B2-4E9B-4159-BF42-E63C8A6A67C9.png

0A8C6F84-92B2-4D34-B54F-7BC2EF833683.png

05FA4A3B-839F-4B98-8700-EAEECDCD246C.png

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  On 2/6/2020 at 10:51 PM, OSUmetstud said:

It looks -pna/+nao through week 4. Week 5 and 6 are a bit more neutral but certainly not cold. 

ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-nao-box-0947200.png

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Yea, I don’t know what some people are talking about but those weeklies are not showing Atlantic and arctic blocking and the PNA is still negative. While certainly not a torch, they definitely don’t look cold to me 

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  On 2/7/2020 at 1:20 AM, WeatherX said:

Personal productivity levels off the charts, family relations once strained, have been restored. Long live winter.

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Lol. I’ve never sold so much during winter in all my life. When you finally leave the weather.. you live differently, healthier, naked footloose and fancy free. 

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  On 2/6/2020 at 11:55 PM, snowman19 said:

Yea, I don’t know what some people are talking about but those weeklies are not showing Atlantic and arctic blocking and the PNA is still negative. While certainly not a torch, they definitely don’t look cold to me 

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No one said "blocking"....neutral to slightly negative NAO. I don't buy a positive NAO through March. I'd be suprised.

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  On 2/6/2020 at 2:00 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey,, it’s great the resorts and trails up north are getting snow, they need it, but let’s be honest..seeing Jspin and Freak banging the Morse code out on each other’s ski poles to maneuver thru the snow and Dryslot and Winterwolf in Fort Kent stuck in two feet of snow and losing their bibs riding the sleds back to base camp pantless jousting their swords like a Star Wars scene isn’t exactly what snowless in SNE wants to see 

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This is the content I (occasionally) stop by here for. Well done sir

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March snow is so annoying though....it never sticks around and is usually a complete let down.....it’s nice while it’s happening but it’s never gonna contribute to any lasting pack that would matter like it would in December and January....it’s nice when it’s gravy coming off an epic season but now?  Get that shit outta here....don’t want it....boned....so boned 

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I do hear what some are saying about March snow on here. I guess unless you get a storm like March 19-20 1956, 3-4 1960, March 12-14 1888,March 31-April 1 it won't quite have the impact with storms that happen earlier in the season. Yes, 1888 is the super extreme outlier to say the least, but it does show you what can happen even in what seems to be a weak winter so far...

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  On 2/7/2020 at 4:10 AM, Greg said:

I do hear what some are saying about March snow on here. I guess unless you get a storm like March 19-20 1956, 3-4 1960, March 12-14 1888,March 31-April 1 it won't quite have the impact with storms that happen earlier in the season. Yes, 1888 is the super extreme outlier to say the least, but it does show you what can happen even in what seems to be a weak winter so far...

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There’s no “seems to be” here....this winter is garbage....it’s been clear from weeks ago

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This place has gone insane in the membrane...

No it doesn't look good here on out, but again, there will be *chances* for some wintry weather, even in SNE, last two weeks of Feb into early March.  I've been looking at the CFS long range on Pivotal for most of the winter, and while it's obviously not perfect, it has actually been rather consistent in the long range with what we have been seeing in terms of pattern and the resulting lack of snow this winter.  I've always thought the CFS was garbage but for whatever reason this winter its been pretty decent, and it's showing some colder conditions in a week or two, with maybe some storm chances that coincide with it.  So I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt - some of the other guidance suggests that as well.

I guess if we don't have any snow outside that we can watch melt, might as well be the posters in this forum...

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