BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: This Eps hr 96 h5 height anomaly panel is starting look real nice imo . Hr 96 I need clarification on that. The Pacific northwest is cold, there's low pressure over the Great Lakes, and there's low heights over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 20% of the 12z EPS individ members show 6" or more of snow around or in DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 EPS are surprisingly boom or bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: EPS are surprisingly boom or bust. Wow, that's a lot of chaos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, H2O said: In case anyone is wondering I know Bob and how he speaks. Bob Chill is giving this storm a green light. Its a go. We can't fail now. Best shot all fall/spring. 53 men and women in this together. How can we lose? Apologies to Dick Vermeil. lol- yes and no. Weekend deal has my close attention but no green light until unanimous consensus inside of 72 hours. It's going to be a looooong 48 hours ahead. On another note... EPS is kinda weenieish d10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 What’s gotten into the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: What’s gotten into the EPS? Looks like it's starting to show a way for our region to be on the right side of the gradient at some point d11+. As is it's a brief window of a few days with cold air overhead. It would only take 1 slow juicy gradient wave to launch our area out of the disaster zone. Guarded skepticism is warranted until it hits a range that is believable. I'm obviously pessimistic for now. If it breaks right we'll run naked in the streets. Or at least wearing candy apple red speedos. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: No, of course not. I only look 2 weeks down the line. Weather is like the stock market. You can make sense of it fairly often but no matter how much you know it can still surprise the F out of you. Especially when Ma Nature throws a Coronavirus at you like a +AO/+NAO combination. We just cant buy any real cold air this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like it's starting to show a way for our region to be on the right side of the gradient at some point d11+. As is it's a brief window of a few days with cold air overhead. It would only take 1 slow juicy gradient wave to launch our area out of the disaster zone. Guarded skepticism is warranted until it hits a range that is believable. I'm obviously pessimistic for now. If it breaks right we'll run naked in the streets. Or at least wearing candy apple red speedos. Please let us know when it's safe to start talking about PD3.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 12z EPS def showing upside surprise potential for the weekend. Nice run. Oddly, the CMC and GEPS don't have the wave at all. Hard to flat out ignore that but I will. Go EPS! Looks like about 30% have nice hits. Agreed, nice uptick for the weekend. I am getting to the point where I want to believe this weekend will happened but am waiting until 12Z Friday. I have birthday plans for the weekend and I am telling people we have to go out Saturday. Everyone in my family is laughing at me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 12Z EPS Control for weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I’m not buying the weekend thing until the Canadian gets back on board. To many whiffs showing up in the Ens still. Canadian had a big storm 2 nights ago and has completely lost it over the last 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: 12Z EPS Control for weekend. The more I see control outputs, the more I think they don't add much value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 12Z EPS Individual Members for Weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Graphical EPS output. Not many show complete whiffs and a definite uptick of big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Well we've heard that some folks would rather have a parade of storms and take their chances that it'll work out with the cold air timing. Looks like Feb 2020 will give you that opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like it's starting to show a way for our region to be on the right side of the gradient at some point d11+. As is it's a brief window of a few days with cold air overhead. It would only take 1 slow juicy gradient wave to launch our area out of the disaster zone. Guarded skepticism is warranted until it hits a range that is believable. I'm obviously pessimistic for now. If it breaks right we'll run naked in the streets. Or at least wearing candy apple red speedos. you should run naked in the streets next wed. Euro has JYO at 73! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 NWS Sterling not impressed with the weekend event. Late afternoon Discussion excerpt. A weak ridge of high pressure will pass over the area during the day Saturday, but will quickly retreat offshore Saturday Night as a fast moving shortwave approaches from the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions during the day Saturday will give way to light rain and snow Saturday Night as ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave overspreads the area. The shortwave will be rather compact and progressive, so the duration of the precipitation will only be around six hours at any given spot. As a result, any precipitation will be confined to the Saturday Night time period. Thermal profiles near the surface will be rather marginal for snow. So while a little bit of snow can`t be ruled out anywhere across the forecast area, the best chance for some minor snow accumulations will be to the north and west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS Individual Members for Weekend. Too much feast or famine for me....Ill bet on the famine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ji said: you should run naked in the streets next wed. Euro has JYO at 73! Wonder what kind of positive departures we will have for Feb hearing that. +10? +12? It’s quite remarkable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Too much feast or famine for me....Ill bet on the famine Same. Feel like this is going to be a classic rug pull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 25 minutes ago, Weather Will said: NWS Sterling not impressed with the weekend event. Late afternoon Discussion excerpt. A weak ridge of high pressure will pass over the area during the day Saturday, but will quickly retreat offshore Saturday Night as a fast moving shortwave approaches from the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions during the day Saturday will give way to light rain and snow Saturday Night as ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave overspreads the area. The shortwave will be rather compact and progressive, so the duration of the precipitation will only be around six hours at any given spot. As a result, any precipitation will be confined to the Saturday Night time period. Thermal profiles near the surface will be rather marginal for snow. So while a little bit of snow can`t be ruled out anywhere across the forecast area, the best chance for some minor snow accumulations will be to the north and west of I-95. ers wrote it 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Same. Feel like this is going to be a classic rug pull. Yeah, a little more than half of the runs are 1" or less for the majority of folks.....in a marginal temp situation thats white rain. I mean its cool to see quite a few big hits but Id like to see more moderate solutions than there are. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 GFS really amping the SW at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, LP08 said: GFS really amping the SW at 18z So far so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Little punctuation change and wow, plot twist. Ha! Kind of reminds me of that book "Eats Shoots and Leaves", depending on how you punctuate that it can have vastly different meanings!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 The energy crashing into the west coast at 96 is noticeably slower too, allowing our Sunday SW to dig in the TN valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 GFS really amping the SW at 18zHorrible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 It still sucks but it’s an improvement from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: GFS really amping the SW at 18z Horrible You received .5 digital inches at 12z. You’re up to 1.5 now. Progress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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