Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Honestly I don't think there is any predictability here... but simply odds favor crap because odds favor a crap winter 70% of the time ANY year. Only 30% of our winters are avg to above avg snowfall... Also there are lots of moving parts to these analogs. For instance...2009 isn't a great analog with the AO but it was a perfect match in the pacific. Possibly the low solar prevented what should have been a raging positive AO with that pac pattern...or maybe it was something else...who knows... either way 2009 wasnt really good (except compared to this year) but it was followed by 2010. If we add that as an analog then suddenly we have 2 recent examples of a crap pacific like this leading to a historic snowfall winter next year. But then we are manipulating the data a little to include 2009...or are we? What is more important the high latitude pattern or the pacific? I dont know. But you can probably splice this up however you want to show whatever you want. In the end I don't think one year can predict the next. I hope you're right...because this has been a bit of a rough run even by our standards. Barring any March miracles, one warning event in 4 years is rough even for us, I'd imagine... (this is when you pull out data to show that this isn't unusual, lol). But being just 29, I guess most of my lifetime we have gotten a good punch every few years...and have not had a dry spell without a warning event (at BWI, that is...not including DCA's footer last year, lol) last longer than 4 years. So perhaps it seems worse because of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 A couple 18z GEFS members look like they have something big at 240hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, Amped said: A couple 18z GEFS members look like they have something big at 240hrs Op was a super tease. Finding ways to miss despite a pretty nice pattern. Op gfs really develops a -epo. I’ll believe that when it actually happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Honestly I don't think there is any predictability here... but simply odds favor crap because odds favor a crap winter 70% of the time ANY year. Only 30% of our winters are avg to above avg snowfall... Also there are lots of moving parts to these analogs. For instance...2009 isn't a great analog with the AO but it was a perfect match in the pacific. Possibly the low solar prevented what should have been a raging positive AO with that pac pattern...or maybe it was something else...who knows... either way 2009 wasnt really good (except compared to this year) but it was followed by 2010. If we add that as an analog then suddenly we have 2 recent examples of a crap pacific like this leading to a historic snowfall winter next year. But then we are manipulating the data a little to include 2009...or are we? What is more important the high latitude pattern or the pacific? I dont know. But you can probably splice this up however you want to show whatever you want. In the end I don't think one year can predict the next. Both the high lat pattern and the Pac contribute to what could have been a massively spectacular winter. But Washington DC is STILL gonna get annihilated later this month or in Morch, by a very deep snowstorm and by frigid temps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Both the high lat pattern and the Pac contribute to what could have been a massively spectacular winter. But Washington DC is STILL gonna get annihilated later this month or in Morch, by a very deep snowstorm and by frigid temps!What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Do you feel better now? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Jebman is an MA legend. Show some respect 6 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Noobs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 One thing to add a bit of hope for our snow future...Looking through our history of solar minimums and the winters around them, it appears there has only been one minimum on record (that is, back to 1883) where we didn't get above average snow either the winter of the minimum or the winter after...and that was 1954. (And even then we did get 19 inches in 55/56). All the rest had an above average winter within 1-2 years after the minimum. I think I like that trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Do you feel better now? Probably. He’s an absolutely terrible poster . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk NOBODY messes with the Jebman! Go play Fortnite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Glutton for punishment. WB 18Z GEFS. All Day 10 plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Jebman is an MA legend. Show some respect And maybe Jebman's prediction could be sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 No post by anyone here will ever match Jebman's epic Boston snow rant from 2015. A true classic. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: No post by anyone here will ever match Jebman's epic Boston snow rant from 2015. A true classic. He's been so relentlessly positive in the posts I have seen I have a hard time imagining him ranting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: No post by anyone here will ever match Jebman's epic Boston snow rant from 2015. A true classic. One of the greatest of all time. I read that post over and over and it was a true measure of a broken, yet hilarious man who cracked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Noobs. The whining and complaining is one thing but acting like a jerk is uncalled for. You learn a lot about people from how they behave when things aren’t going their way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Just now, Stormpc said: One of the greatest of all time. I read that post over and over and it was a true measure of a broken, yet hilarious man who cracked. lol it was extremely creative. Guess I will have to dig up that thread now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: He's been so relentlessly positive in the posts I have seen I have a hard time imagining him ranting. It wasn't your typical rant. It was ROFL stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It wasn't your typical rant. It was ROFL stuff. I would love to read it. Any idea which month it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I would love to read it. Any idea which month it was? Its here- That was the winter Boston had over 100", much of it coming in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: The Panic Room has seen some legit classics. Just browsing through that thread. Those were the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Pages 13 and 14. The 2nd rant is a work of art. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Pages 13 and 14. The 2nd rant is a work of art. Ha I forgot about the second one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: If we’re not having fun one way or another during the winter, we’re doing it wrong. I think we had the epic poetry thread that year too. Or maybe it was 2014. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 42 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its here- That was the winter Boston had over 100", much of it coming in Feb. Wow, I have a hard time believing that is the same Jebman By the way, didn't the cold and moisture finally line up for you guys later in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its here- That was the winter Boston had over 100", much of it coming in Feb. I just went back to weenie that post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 8 hours ago, CentralVaNATS said: What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Really not much to like on the overnight runs for the roughly day 5-8 period that had some promise just a few days ago. We are just not seeing even close to enough separation between the front running SW and the dropping NS. At this point per the models about the only thing left on the table is the possibility of some NS energy dropping down the backside of the 500's after they pull through our region. And even that is looking rough as the mean trough look/placement is looking unfavorable for anything more then a very minor event. Now the period of time that sets up everything is roughly day 3 (NS drops interaction with the SW) so it isn't like we have loads of time to get that right. Hoping for the separation we need to see between these two features is probably a hopeless cause at this point. So that begs the question of what could possible shake things up to give us a shot? About the only thing I can see is that if we actually see the NS phase into that front running shortwave instead of missing it and washing out. Now this option would probably take any of our chances away for seeing snow as the 500's approach and pull through the region (they are looking very slim anyway) but it does improve the odds for another possibility. This would set up a different evolution, placement and timing of the 500's as they finally reached our area. A different look that very well could put us in a better position for any energy diving down the backside of the trough to amplify then we are currently seeing. Now do I expect any of this? Not necessarily. But it is the only thing I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Long range looks like crap. About the only thing I see is around day 10 or so if we can get a system in quickly enough before the 500's/trough pull out of the NE allowing ridging to take over. EPS is probably the friendliest look at this time for that possibility. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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