WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 Simply put, and long range guidance that has shown any decent period has been wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not at all. All guidance has been heading this way for days now. I don't think anyone here is surprised. I just think its fitting if it ends this way. There was really never any tangible reason to believe the pattern would be notably different going forward, outside of shorter wavelengths. I’ve suspected the unfavorable forcing this year is too hostile for the chaos of shorter wavelengths alone to overcome. It works sometimes. But it’s not like this pattern often morphs into a suddenly long term great pattern in March. This isn’t like some years 2017/2018 come to mind) where I had hope for a more meaningful late season pattern change. Those years while hostile featured a much colder overall profile and weaker hostile forcing. Years like that do often flip late. Years like this usually don’t. What did happen in some similar years was the chaos of shorter wavelengths created an opening and we got lucky with one fluke. But the forcing this year has been so strong and consistent (as evidenced by the measurable effects of the pac ridge and AO) that I’ve been skeptical even March will offer much. Not too late to be wrong on that but hope is fading fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 @C.A.P.E. I might actually check out the JB video today just to laugh at whatever ridiculous tact he tries to spin guidance to support the cold/snowy March forecast he has been humping hard the last week. I mean after he completely bombed on Dec/Jan/Feb I would think he will be full tilt trying to save whatever cred he has left with his latest ridiculous forecast in the face of absolutely no guidance support. Might be entertaining... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 The 8-14 day outlook calls for below normal temperatures and precipitation. Alberta clipper friendly given the forecast northwesterly flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @C.A.P.E. I might actually check out the JB video today just to laugh at whatever ridiculous tact he tries to spin guidance to support the cold/snowy March forecast he has been humping hard the last week. I mean after he completely bombed on Dec/Jan/Feb I would think he will be full tilt trying to save whatever cred he has left with his latest ridiculous forecast in the face of absolutely no guidance support. Might be entertaining... A couple days ago it was April 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, dallen7908 said: The 8-14 day outlook calls for below normal temperatures and precipitation. Alberta clipper friendly given the forecast northwesterly flow? We haven’t had a clipper as far as I know since Jan of 2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 The gfs looks like pure misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gfs looks like pure misery What? This is the one. Gonna save our winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: What? This is the one. Gonna save our winter. That will be a frontal passage, hurricane winds, cold. In other words .... pure misery 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That will be a frontal passage, hurricane winds, cold. In other words .... pure misery "The only misery in life is the sorrow which one brings upon themself." -anonymous weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I’ve suspected the unfavorable forcing this year is too hostile for the chaos of shorter wavelengths alone to overcome. It works sometimes. But it’s not like this pattern often morphs into a suddenly long term great pattern in March. This isn’t like some years 2017/2018 come to mind) where I had hope for a more meaningful late season pattern change. Those years while hostile featured a much colder overall profile and weaker hostile forcing. Years like that do often flip late. Years like this usually don’t. What did happen in some similar years was the chaos of shorter wavelengths created an opening and we got lucky with one fluke. But the forcing this year has been so strong and consistent (as evidenced by the measurable effects of the pac ridge and AO) that I’ve been skeptical even March will offer much. Not too late to be wrong on that but hope is fading fast. When you look at the pool of really bad years do you note any pattern for the next year. I remember us discussing a few multi-year stretches. Given the relative rarity of years this bad, I was wondering if there wasn't an elevated chance of another really bad year following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, cbmclean said: When you look at the pool of really bad years do you note any pattern for the next year. I remember us discussing a few multi-year stretches. Given the relative rarity of years this bad, I was wondering if there wasn't an elevated chance of another really bad year following. Not sure it can be much worse without a solid repeat of this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, cbmclean said: When you look at the pool of really bad years do you note any pattern for the next year. I remember us discussing a few multi-year stretches. Given the relative rarity of years this bad, I was wondering if there wasn't an elevated chance of another really bad year following. Don't ask questions you don't want the answer too 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 WB 12Z GEFS actually the snow maps look better today than yesterday Trend or blip TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 58 minutes ago, cbmclean said: When you look at the pool of really bad years do you note any pattern for the next year. I remember us discussing a few multi-year stretches. Given the relative rarity of years this bad, I was wondering if there wasn't an elevated chance of another really bad year following. 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don't ask questions you don't want the answer too I actually do wanna know...so we know whether we may need to cancel next winter already, lol (off the top of my head...at BWI, I know 1998-99 wasn't much...2012-13 kinda sucked, and 1973-74 was actually halfway decent total-wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I actually do wanna know...so we know whether we may need to cancel next winter already, lol (off the top of my head...at BWI, I know 1998-99 wasn't much...2012-13 kinda sucked, and 1973-74 was actually halfway decent total-wise) I don’t really see any correlation. https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I actually do wanna know...so we know whether we may need to cancel next winter already, lol (off the top of my head...at BWI, I know 1998-99 wasn't much...2012-13 kinda sucked, and 1973-74 was actually halfway decent total-wise) I am not going to run the numbers right now...I am busy at work, but don't tell Mersky. However...I know off the top of my head that most of the really god awful years that I found in that analog set to this years pattern I put together back around New Years were followed by not so great years the following year. One that sticks out that was followed by a great year was 2002 but we had a perfect enso the following year...so I guess if we get a moderate central/west based nino then yea we could have a great year next year...but other then that most of the rest were followed by some variation of crap to mediocre at best. However...most of our winters are crap to mediocre so that isn't really indicative of predictability other than normal odds. But most were at least somewhat better, but again that isn't saying much since its really hard to get years with this little snow so even a repeat of a similar crap pattern is likely to produce at least a little better results. In summary...off the top of my head from the numbers I remember from my analogs that turned out to be correct for this year.... odds favor another pretty crappy year next year purely from a "what happened after similar years in the past". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Honestly I don't think there is any predictability here... but simply odds favor crap because odds favor a crap winter 70% of the time ANY year. Only 30% of our winters are avg to above avg snowfall... Also there are lots of moving parts to these analogs. For instance...2009 isn't a great analog with the AO but it was a perfect match in the pacific. Possibly the low solar prevented what should have been a raging positive AO with that pac pattern...or maybe it was something else...who knows... either way 2009 wasnt really good (except compared to this year) but it was followed by 2010. If we add that as an analog then suddenly we have 2 recent examples of a crap pacific like this leading to a historic snowfall winter next year. But then we are manipulating the data a little to include 2009...or are we? What is more important the high latitude pattern or the pacific? I dont know. But you can probably splice this up however you want to show whatever you want. In the end I don't think one year can predict the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Since 1960, for DC, the winters after our pathetic snowfall winters (arbitrarily defined as less than 4”): 16.7” 11.1” 11.6” 40.4” 3.1” 32.0” 7.8” Pretty average overall IMO. Definitely no reason to panic and cancel next winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: Since 1960, for DC, the winters after our pathetic snowfall winters (arbitrarily defined as less than 4”): 16.7” 11.1” 11.6” 40.4” 3.1” 32.0” 7.8” Pretty average overall IMO. Some of those were not good analogs to this year though... they were crap but for different reasons. I agree that there is not predictability but if we are looking at what happened in the past when "THIS" happened before, looking at radically different winters that just happened to produce no snow but for very different reasons isn't really useful imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 12Z EPS says see you next year. Too depressing to post any maps. I will have to start looking at hurricane probability maps as requested.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z EPS says see you next year. Too depressing to post any maps. I will have to start looking at hurricane probability maps as requested.... Severe Wx is a much higher probability event type to track around here vs tropical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: What? This is the one. Gonna save our winter. This window actually has decent support on the GEFS. Too bad it will be gone in a couple hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some of those were not good analogs to this year though... they were crap but for different reasons. I agree that there is not predictability but if we are looking at what happened in the past when "THIS" happened before, looking at radically different winters that just happened to produce no snow but for very different reasons isn't really useful imo. Fair enough. I guess my general point is that crap one year does not necessarily lead to crap the next year, but you’re right that a better way to view it would be to break down the crap years a little more specifically into categories and see where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some of those were not good analogs to this year though... they were crap but for different reasons. I agree that there is not predictability but if we are looking at what happened in the past when "THIS" happened before, looking at radically different winters that just happened to produce no snow but for very different reasons isn't really useful imo. So would it be better to look at the raging +++++AO winters and the winters that followed?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: When you look at the pool of really bad years do you note any pattern for the next year. I remember us discussing a few multi-year stretches. Given the relative rarity of years this bad, I was wondering if there wasn't an elevated chance of another really bad year following. I wouldnt be the least bit surprised if next year was a complete shutout tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 this isnt the greatest look for JB march 58 or 60==i guess not having a 50/50 high helps somewhat but its not looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: this isnt the greatest look for JB march 58 or 60==i guess not having a 50/50 high helps somewhat but its not looking good When you can't even easily decide what the best way to fix that would be (progression or retrogression) you know how bad it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Burn it down. This place is complete disaster area. Let’s start fresh in November..... ....2024. I hear JB calling for a huge winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 hours ago, Scraff said: Burn it down. This place is complete disaster area. Let’s start fresh in November..... ....2024. I hear JB calling for a huge winter. The ground is nice and cool, just ask @WxWatcher007 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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