frd Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s like he stopped trying to hit singles and only swings for the fences now. And he seems increasingly frustrated with it all also. Had he continued to forecast and review models and provide useful old fashion weather input like he did 20 years ago he would have many times more followers versus the way he has branched off into climate debate and reversing his stance on the long range patterns. I would look forward with eager anticipation to his daily posts many years ago. What he knows still rivals the models at times but he refuses to use that approach any longer, except maybe on an occasion or two. I also note the frustration as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just like the GEFS, nothing to see here on the EPS through at least the end of the month. The means have been consistently unenthusiastic about snow chances for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 A nice improvement on the EPS imo. Not quite good enough to see the snow mean jump but another tick in the right direction at 0z would get some of those amped solutions closer to the coast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Oh look the one time the EPS looked better than the GEFS is the one time it caves to the GEFS! Where have we seen this before 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 This look does have some potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: This look does have some potential. Yeah for flooding rains well up into NE lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh look the one time the EPS looked better than the GEFS is the one time it caves to the GEFS! Where have we seen this before It is inevitable this winter. The model with the worst possible look for snow here will end up correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Oh look the one time the EPS looked better than the GEFS is the one time it caves to the GEFS! Where have we seen this before Brutal. We basically have until the 3rd and it's over. Again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 A +NAO and a 50/50 high with an amplified upper trough to our west is a disaster. Anyone want to explain to me how this look is full of potential? How could it possibly track underneath? Unless/until I see lower heights showing up off the Canadian maritimes on approach, this is a goner. It's on to March. Except both the GEFS and the EPS now have a western US trough and a SE ridge lol. What I meant to say was..it's on to Spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Yeah for flooding rains well up into NE lol.Great event for Garrett county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 A +NAO and a 50/50 high with an amplified upper trough to our west is a disaster. Anyone want to explain to me how this look is full of potential? How could it possibly track underneath? Unless/until I see lower heights showing up off the Canadian maritimes on approach, this is a goner. It's on to March. Except both the GEFS and the EPS now have a western US trough and a SE ridge lol. What I meant to say was..it's on to Spring.This is bottom of 9th and were are down by 11 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 ^The problem with this mess of a pattern is it requires a bunch of needle threading to even have a chance. The ultimate fluke. The "better" window was supposed to be just beyond next weekend. Ofc that is now in doubt, as if we didn't know that was coming lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It is inevitable this winter. The model with the worst possible look for snow here will end up correct. When we were entering this god awful pattern I saw a lot of posts with a “we will probably get lucky somewhere” attitude but I kept thinking “ehh unlikely in this look”. The years with this pattern where we got some snow usually it was around the fringes, early before it set in or late. We didn’t get lucky early so now we are left needing some luck late. But most of the analogs to that look we’re am absolute barren wasteland once that pattern locked in for the duration of Jan and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah for flooding rains well up into NE lol. Great event for Garrett county As you well know, its a different world out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I've never seem a winter where there has been no action on left side of box..kind of eerie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 As you well know, its a different world out there.Oh yea...just trying to find somewhere to drive. I've given up around here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I think the past few years has really exposed judah cohen. He is biased towards snow and cold and he is super unreliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: A +NAO and a 50/50 high with an amplified upper trough to our west is a disaster. Anyone want to explain to me how this look is full of potential? How could it possibly track underneath? Unless/until I see lower heights showing up off the Canadian maritimes on approach, this is a goner. It's on to March. Except both the GEFS and the EPS now have a western US trough and a SE ridge lol. What I meant to say was..it's on to Spring. Hypothetically the way to get it under us is a stronger lead system that holds longer and knocks down heights. Other then that simply blind stupid luck of the second system just happens to dig further east. The best shot remains the first energy ejection behind that. But it’s now looking like a one shot deal. If that gets suppressed were likely toast as guidance is reverting to the base state much faster now. For a few days it appeared we might even get a longer window with 2-3 chances before the reversion. That obviously would have significantly increased our odds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: As you well know, its a different world out there. Oh yea...just trying to find somewhere to drive. I've given up around here lol There or Canaan is on my list of possible places to move in the next couple years. Everywhere else is up north. No substitute for latitude. NNE doesn't worry about 12 different indices all being in perfect alignment for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: I've never seem a winter where there has been no action on left side of box..kind of eerie There are waves in those phases problem is since early Jan there has been a more dominant standing wave in the western Pac muting any effect both on that chart and the pattern of any convection in favorable locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 There or Canaan is on my list of possible places to move in the next couple years. Everywhere else is up north. No substitute for latitude. NNE doesn't worry about 12 different indices all being in perfect alignment for snow.Man if I was single...I'd be living in fort kent.. can you imagine a place where cutters can give you snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 What a winter. We haven't even been teased. We never got into nam range lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hypothetically the way to get it under us is a stronger lead system that holds longer and knocks down heights. Other then that simply blind stupid luck of the second system just happens to dig further east. The best shot remains the first energy ejection behind that. But it’s now looking like a one shot deal. If that gets suppressed were likely toast as guidance is reverting to the base state much faster now. For a few days it appeared we might even get a longer window with 2-3 chances before the reversion. That obviously would have significantly increased our odds. Dang...is the first week of March hail mary window already closed? If so...oof. That would be a typical end to this winter, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 42 minutes ago, Ji said: What a winter. We haven't even been teased. We never got into nam range lol What do you mean NAM range? We haven't even gotten anything into the range where the op runs of the Globals become somewhat useful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: There or Canaan is on my list of possible places to move in the next couple years. Everywhere else is up north. No substitute for latitude. NNE doesn't worry about 12 different indices all being in perfect alignment for snow. Man if I was single...I'd be living in fort kent.. can you imagine a place where cutters can give you snow lol I have been thinking hard about maybe a second (relatively inexpensive) place to buy where I can experience deep winter whenever I want. Been looking hard at places in the Tug. Prices in the sticks up there are not terrible. If it were up to me I would live up there during the winter, work firewood, plow my driveway and watch the snowfall. I like solitude man...especially in winter. Come back to MD when mud season starts up there. My wife would prefer to have a warmer option as a second home. So...the compromise looks like we will just stay here in MD so I can continue counting snowfall in millimeters instead of feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 I have been thinking hard about maybe a second (relatively inexpensive) place to buy where I can experience deep winter whenever I want. Been looking hard at places in the Tug. Prices in the sticks up there are not terrible. If it were up to me I would live up there during the winter, work firewood, plow my driveway and watch the snowfall. I like solitude man...especially in winter. Come back to MD when mud season starts up there. My wife would prefer to have a warmer option as a second home. So...the compromise looks like we will just stay here in MD so I can continue counting snowfall in millimeters instead of feet.Man I've had those exact same thoughts. I was looking at places near lake superior last week where you got like 300 inches this winter. My mood is so much better when winter is in my life. Thjs has been so depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dang...is the first week of March hail mary window already closed? If so...oof. That would be a typical end to this winter, smh I hope it is over it cannot end fast enough. Last thing we need is some St Patrick's Day threat showing a MECS under 60 hours then disintegrating into nothingness as the final straw. Let's just end this asap and hopefully reset the system next winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 23 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I have been thinking hard about maybe a second (relatively inexpensive) place to buy where I can experience deep winter whenever I want. Been looking hard at places in the Tug. Prices in the sticks up there are not terrible. If it were up to me I would live up there during the winter, work firewood, plow my driveway and watch the snowfall. I like solitude man...especially in winter. Come back to MD when mud season starts up there. My wife would prefer to have a warmer option as a second home. So...the compromise looks like we will just stay here in MD so I can continue counting snowfall in millimeters instead of feet. Man I've had those exact same thoughts. I was looking at places near lake superior last week where you got like 300 inches this winter. My mood is so much better when winter is in my life. Thjs has been so depressing You and @Maestrobjwa should go halves on a cabin in the woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: When we were entering this god awful pattern I saw a lot of posts with a “we will probably get lucky somewhere” attitude but I kept thinking “ehh unlikely in this look”. The years with this pattern where we got some snow usually it was around the fringes, early before it set in or late. We didn’t get lucky early so now we are left needing some luck late. But most of the analogs to that look we’re am absolute barren wasteland once that pattern locked in for the duration of Jan and Feb. If 300-400 miles south of us can score in this horrible pattern, we certainly could have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You and @Maestrobjwa should go halves on a cabin in the woods. lol! that actually made me laugh... nah...too many questions. "what kind of firewood is that? how should I stack it? Why stack it like that? History says...." hahaha. Just kidding @Maestrobjwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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