psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS looks like pure shit. Ggem is at least somewhat interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just looked through all guidance for the first time in nearly a week. Walked away feeling like this. I'll check back in a week. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: So much for the QBO. It came in at -2.5 for January and it’s not helping one bit. We should be firmly negative across the board later in the year along with the delayed effects of the solar cycle. Next winter will again afford the opportunity to look into the newer seasonal trends and drivers. Wondering what the West Pac will look like along with the Pac in general. Any hope with the + PDO this winter was quickly reversed. Almost feel we need to wait longer to issue seasonal forecasts for the winter, downplaying early head fakes. Last couple winters we have learned to look more at angular momentum, the Hadley cell, West Pac warm pool , and Westerly momentum along with the central Pac ridge along with the IOD and cycling pattern of the MJO. Wonder what the killer will be for next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just looked through all guidance for the first time in nearly a week. Walked away feeling like this. I'll check back in a week. Might as well say........ Just looked through all guidance for the first time in nearly a week. Walked away feeling like this. I'll check back in 10 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, frd said: Might as well say........ Just looked through all guidance for the first time in nearly a week. Walked away feeling like this. I'll check back in 10 months. I'm totally good honestly. I gave up about 2 weeks ago. I've been working on my RV lately and putting new line on all my fishing reels. Took care of all the maintenance on my vehicles last weekend. If it snows then it would be great. I'll track and enjoy but only when it's locking in in the med or short range. Otherwise concentrating on spring chores and getting ready for the warm season is making me pretty happy. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm totally good honestly. I gave up about 2 weeks ago. I've been working on my RV lately and putting new line on all my fishing reels. Took care of all the maintenance on my vehicles last weekend. If it snows then it would be great. I'll track and enjoy but only when it's locking in in the med or short range. Otherwise concentrating on spring chores and getting ready for the warm season is making me pretty happy. Heading out to Bass Pro this afternoon myself for a new Presidential reel! I sponsor the fishing club and we are going for yellow perch Sunday morning. Winter is overrated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The SE gets another one 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 WB 12Z GEFS. I won't give up until the end of the first week of March...however, I am starting to look forward to my first beach trip in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS. Are you sure you want to keep paying for WB? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ggem is at least somewhat interesting. It did at the end. Enjoy the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 39 minutes ago, frd said: We should be firmly negative across the board later in the year along with the delayed effects of the solar cycle. Next winter will again afford the opportunity to look into the newer seasonal trends and drivers. Wondering what the West Pac will look like along with the Pac in general. Any hope with the + PDO this winter was quickly reversed. Almost feel we need to wait longer to issue seasonal forecasts for the winter, downplaying early head fakes. Last couple winters we have learned to look more at angular momentum, the Hadley cell, West Pac warm pool , and Westerly momentum along with the central Pac ridge along with the IOD and cycling pattern of the MJO. Wonder what the killer will be for next winter? Dang man you already giving up on next winter? Lol From your posts it sounds like you don't think we can get a decent winter again...I'd rather wait a few more years. If we continue to fail, then...maybe a change in climate will be a concern for our snow chances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It did at the end. Enjoy the next 12 hours. It was closer to something from the trailing wave too. A split between the gfs and gem would work. One over and one under amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was closer to something from the trailing wave too. A split between the gfs and gem would work. One over and one under amplified. 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was closer to something from the trailing wave too. A split between the gfs and gem would work. One over and one under amplified. i havent seen once this winter where we take a good run and build on it lol...we have never even taken one step forward to have a chance to go 2 steps back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The SE gets another one some NC towns might finish winter with above normal snow lol...then JB will puff his chest and claim victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Just looked through all guidance for the first time in nearly a week. Walked away feeling like this. I'll check back in a week. I was going to go with this one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 26 minutes ago, Ji said: some NC towns might finish winter with above normal snow lol...then JB will puff his chest and claim victory Who cares. My final falling out with JB was many years ago when he used IAD snowfall to verify a DCA forecast...and even with that trick it was still several inches short and he rounded up and said “close enough”. Dude has no scruples. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro digs deep next week at h5 . Gets some snow to areas along the M/D line . Man...just a little more dig and that could have been a nice result. Especially for favored areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 well its better than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Who cares. My final falling out with JB was many years ago when he used IAD snowfall to verify a DCA forecast...and even with that trick it was still several inches short and he rounded up and said “close enough”. Dude has no scruples. DCA is a terrible place to judge your winter snowfall forecast. I would use IAD too. The blizzard of 2016..DCA had pedestrian results...and i had like 38 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Who cares. My final falling out with JB was many years ago when he used IAD snowfall to verify a DCA forecast...and even with that trick it was still several inches short and he rounded up and said “close enough”. Dude has no scruples. Dude spouts conspiracy theories left and right and we expect that he will be forthcoming about his forecast inaccuracies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro digs deep next week at h5 . Gets some snow to areas along the M/D line . I totally get why most have given up and this setup is not a high probability one. There are lots of moving parts that we need to play nice. Those usually don’t work. BUT...a winning solution is still very much within the envelope of realistic possible scenarios with that trailing wave next week. But it’s unlikely to be the kind of thing resolved well by guidance at range so I’m ok with it just looking ambiguously close at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: DCA is a terrible place to judge your winter snowfall forecast. I would use IAD too. The blizzard of 2016..DCA had pedestrian results...and i had like 38 inches I agree about using IAD however you cannot use the DCA avg to make your forecast then use the IAD results to verify it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I agree about using IAD however you cannot use the DCA avg to make your forecast then use the IAD results to verify it. lol--got it. thats funny. He is one sneaky dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Euro sends the low flying off the SE Coast in 10 days. This stuff is comical at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Informative albeit depressing article in the Washington Post on the snowless winter: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/20/year-has-passed-since-washingtons-last-inch-snow/ to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 There is nothing simple about the upcoming period, but there will be a chance or 2. You can see the players on the field, and there are paths to victory, but you just get the feeling every opportunity is going to find a way fail. It does just that on the Euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: lol--got it. thats funny. He is one sneaky dude 9 minutes ago, anotherman said: Dude spouts conspiracy theories left and right and we expect that he will be forthcoming about his forecast inaccuracies? There is no shame in being wrong (I am a lot) wrt long range forecasting. Stuff past 10 days is like being a batter in baseball. Even the best will be wrong a lot. But playing childish ass games that insult others intelligence is inexcusable. I also think he was better years ago when he didn’t only focus on super long range stuff. He used to do a good job breaking down the details of medium range threats. That still takes skill but it’s way more useful and realistic than only making super long range stabs in the dark. It’s like he stopped trying to hit singles and only swings for the fences now. And he seems increasingly frustrated with it all also. He has gone full tilt. I do think some of it is intentional (an act) but some is likely out if his control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 25 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Man...just a little more dig and that could have been a nice result. Especially for favored areas. But that day 10 threat! Never go in order irt tracking....always look well beyond. Weenie rule of some sort or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: There is nothing simple about the upcoming period, but there will be a chance or 2. You can see the players on the field, and there are paths to victory, but you just get the feeling every opportunity is going to find a way fail. It does just that on the Euro verbatim. This is how I feel. The longwave pattern isn’t that different but we are seeing the expected seasonal changes giving us the “chance” at the late fluke. It could work. But it still won’t come easy with the look up top likely to remain hostile. But this is the time of year flawed can work more often if we can just get enough cold around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is how I feel. The longwave pattern isn’t that different but we are seeing the expected seasonal changes giving us the “chance” at the late fluke. It could work. But it still won’t come easy with the look up top likely to remain hostile. But this is the time of year flawed can work more often if we can just get enough cold around. Yeah there looks to be enough cold around, but with no blocking and lots of pieces flying around, comes down to wave timing. It's working out for the SE today. Seems like we are due for a little luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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