cbmclean Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This looks kinda familiar. Not exactly a winning look for March. Our "prime" window looks...brief. Hello Doom Blob my old friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: 18z gfs is a disaster lol. Ji couldn't have said it better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said: lol. Ji couldn't have said it better @Ji definitely could have said it better. Should have read “this winter is a disaster” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs digging good at h5 at hr 153 . Let's see what it does at the surface shortly . Just our luck... rainstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Oz EPS still gives a little hope for the period February 27- March 5 with two systems. Can’t post maps anymore with this new .01MB limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 hours ago, losetoa6 said: It was close imo. Surface wasn't exciting verbatim but h5 was real close to a possible hit. Wayyy past my bedtime. See ya tomorrow It will screw us coasties over Horrible winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Oz EPS still gives a little hope for the period February 27- March 5 with two systems. Can’t post maps anymore with this new .01MB limit. Go to the upper right hand corner of your screen and click on your user name (Weather Will). Then click on the category attachments in the drop down. Brings you to the screen where you can delete previous attachments which will free up space to post more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Go to the upper right hand corner of your screen and click on your user name (Weather Will). Then click on the category attachments in the drop down. Brings you to the screen where you can delete previous attachments which will free up space to post more. I told him what the issue was yesterday, but I guess I should have held his hand and walked him through it as you just did. You are much more patient than me. I am also very bitter. Copy and paste works too. I do that most of the time, and I usually cant be bothered deleting attachments, although its much easier than it used to be. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I told him what the issue was yesterday, but I guess I should have held his hand and walked him through it as you just did. You are much more patient than me. I am also very bitter. Copy and paste works too. I do that most of the time, and I usually cant be bothered deleting attachments, although its much easier than it used to be. Thank you both. Thought you meant on my computers!!! I thought I was being punished for posting prob maps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Still not much enthusiasm on the ens means for next week. Decent chance many of us escape Feb with no snow. I may have had a trace in Jan. Been a rough stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The overnight runs were uninspiring to say the least. The good news is general overall look on the EPS and the GEPS is more conducive to the possibility of getting the 500's to drive through or underneath us then what we were seeing several days ago. (GFS/GEFS are handling the 500's different so that is another story). The bad news is that we are getting less and less separation with the front running SW and the NS dropping in behind it. The problem with that is two fold. First off this is not allowing the SW (and associated low) to progress eastward helping to knock down heights in the east. Second, we are now seeing all the focus on the surface low initiated by this front running shortwave instead of the possibility of a secondary trailing behind with the NS drop. In a nut shell, if we can't get that separation then everything is more then likely pooched. As far as after the 500's pull through setting up the trough in the East? Not liking the look at this time for the possibility of any follow up energy to do any damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 WB 6Z GEFS only one Member liking end of next week. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Oz EPS still gives a little hope for the period February 27- March 5 with two systems. Can’t post maps anymore with this new .01MB limit.Delete your images....from 3 months ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 WB 6z GEFS for first week of March. Perhaps the last chance still showing some life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 6z GEFS for first week of March. Perhaps the last chance still showing some life. You’ve been hard at this for the last month! Any luck yet?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Still looks like the periods to watch are February 27-28, and March 3-5. Long shots at best but from two weeks out I don’t remember a strong signal for the NC event that is occurring tomorrow. We will need some luck. Party never got started but it is over in about 4 weeks so we track the crumbs that the weather gods have handed us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Lasts nights Gfs run really looked close at 500 . Not many of its ensembles if any agreed but still lots of time . 0z It was close. But if you notice we saw good separation between the front running wave and the NS running behind it instead of the front running wave being absorbed into the trailing NS. This allowed for better placement with the 500's and secondary low development on the dropping NS. That is the issue we are now seeing on the latest runs (less separation/absorption). Really not sure how we can make it work if that is the case. Probably be hoping for trailing energy after the 500's pull through at that point. Plenty of time to see that issue resolve itself though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: Oz EPS still gives a little hope for the period February 27- March 5 with two systems. Can’t post maps anymore with this new .01MB limit. There is no .01 mb limit. Perhaps if you didn’t post 1 terabytes of maps without deleting your storage from time to time, you’d have more space? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Thank you both. Thought you meant on my computers!!! I thought I was being punished for posting prob maps. Lol. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There is no .01 mb limit. Perhaps if you didn’t post 1 terabytes of maps without deleting your storage from time to time, you’d have more space? Please explain this concept to my daughter as well. She got a new phone before Xmas and came to me the other day complaining of low storage space. i looked and the sheer number of guinea pig photos was only second to Weather Wills snow probability maps. The hell i was gonna pay for more icloud storage 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 59 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There is no .01 mb limit. Perhaps if you didn’t post 1 terabytes of maps without deleting your storage from time to time, you’d have more space? But those snow probability maps are important dude. Can you up the limit to .02 mb? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But those snow probability maps are important dude. Can you up the limit to .02 mb? Maybe soon he can post hurricane landfall probability maps, we seriously need some excitement in these parts ! If winter can't deliver maybe spring and the summer can. I can see an Irene track this year. The Westward shifting strike zone should put the East Coast under pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VelociChicken Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But those snow probability maps are important dude. Can you up the limit to .02 mb? Don't hate on those snow probability maps, those are one of the few things y'all post that I can grasp, even if they are crap. The rest of the stuff is for you big brain people lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 @showmethesnow things are trending somewhat better (minus the spacing issue) for next week...but it’s still a low probability threat. In a good year we likely wouldn’t even be tracking it. Lots of moving parts that need to play nice. After that, as expected, the look is degrading again. Gefs and geps totally lost the idea of any epo help. They reform the AK vortex Pac Ridge combo...yay. Eps actually still looks ok into March but how much you wanna bet this is when the eps is wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Eps actually still looks ok into March but how much you wanna bet this is when the eps is wrong! Without looking at the EPS I am wondering about the EPO domain . It has been off the mark several times this season when it forecasts a - EPO. I am not sure though what it looks like in that area further done the line. And, it is really amazing how forecasts of a - AO and a - NAO at long leads transitions back to positive in the medium range, The SST structures and the back ground state will simply not allow a - AO or a - NAO. Any attempt is simply a model error in the long range, when that changes I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, frd said: Without looking at the EPS I am wondering about the EPO domain . It has been off the mark several times this season when it forecasts a - EPO. I am not sure though what it looks like in that area further done the line. And, it is really amazing how forecasts of a - AO and a - NAO at long leads transitions back to positive in the medium range, The SST structures and the back ground state will simply not allow a - AO or a - NAO. Any attempt is simply a model error in the long range, when that changes I have no idea. this year is lost but we gotta make sure we dont go through this again next year.....i really hope we are the end of this non blocking cycle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, frd said: Without looking at the EPS I am wondering about the EPO domain . It has been off the mark several times this season when it forecasts a - EPO. I am not sure though what it looks like in that area further done the line. And, it is really amazing how forecasts of a - AO and a - NAO at long leads transitions back to positive in the medium range, The SST structures and the back ground state will simply not allow a - AO or a - NAO. Any attempt is simply a model error in the long range, when that changes I have no idea. So much for the QBO. It came in at -2.5 for January and it’s not helping one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So much for the QBO. It came in at -2.5 for January and it’s not helping one bit. yep--you all pros promised us blocking with a negative QBO this winter and look what happened:) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 GFS looks like pure shit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Someone should start a thread for the clipper on the 29th. That's the one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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