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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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33 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Haha. Unfortunately it’s not. Jaded emotionalism lol. But not parody. FWIW 0z NAM is north btw.

Man, at this point, if we gotta suck this month, we may as well go for the historic Feb. mark of not even a trace...lol So unless we have a legit shot at an inch, I don't want a trace to ruin it, haha

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00z CMC at hour 204 is a prime example of what can happen if the energy doesn't all dump into the SW US. GFS at the same timeframe has the energy diving into NM/AZ so it amplifies the flow and it ends up cutting. CMC dives it into TX instead. Would like to see the EURO do something similar this run. 

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9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Our better bet might be to root for that system to phase into the NS and set up more confluence to try to force the bigger one behind it south.  That one is getting closer on the EPS.  It's still likely all going to fail but that one is the best bet of a sorry lot.  

@showmethesnow the gem just did exactly what I was envisioning above. Gfs wasn’t that far off either. It might be a viable idea. 

 

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man, at this point, if we gotta suck this month, we may as well go for the historic Feb. mark of not even a trace...lol So unless we have a legit shot at an inch, I don't want a trace to ruin it, haha

I didn’t realize DCA has never had a zero (i.e. not even a T) February... BWI had zeroes in 1884 and 1898 though.

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow the gem just did exactly what I was envisioning above. Gfs wasn’t that far off either. It might be a viable idea. 

 

I think it is a very viable option as long as the NS drop behind it doesn't dump into the SW. We see that and with the height builds we see in the East it more then likely kills any chance of that lead SW being a player as the setup more then likely would get pooched. Actually have thought of quite a few scenarios since the models started moving away from dumping the NS into the SW and moving that eastward. But the odds of any particular one playing out will be dependent on exactly how far east (if in fact it does) and how deep a drop we see with that NS. 

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Definite move by the models to show the NS energy pulling through the Pac NW (day 4/5) to drop farther to the east vs. into the deep South West. Now that may change in future runs but the fact that we saw the models begin hinting at it around 7 days and the signal has only gotten much stronger is a good sign. This really opens up the options (much more snow friendly) for us vs. the alternative which was the SW dump. Now what it does afterwords is also key. Right now the models have that tracking this feature to our N and W. Not the best solution but one we can work with as it does open up the possibilities for any trailing energy. What we probably want to see is that energy/closed low?/500's tracking through or just south of our region. Not only does that put us into play with that feature but it in most likelihood sets up a favorable, potentially very favorable, setup for the period afterwords unlike what we would see with it moving into the Lakes/southern Canada. And it that regards (tracking through or south) the models have been steadily moving towards the possibility over the last couple of days. Now I am not predicting snow, all I am doing is presenting what IMO gives us the best odds to see snow and nothing more.

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Unrelated to weather, but perhaps I have been banned.  I can't upload maps anymore.  Something about file size.  Anyone tell me where to go for instructions or what to do?

 

 

Your attachments folder is probably at 100%. Delete stuff.

Or...

Copy and paste. I do it all the time.

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