psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: I agree. Was sort of alluding to this in my brief comment from above. Probably should have gone into a little more detail but I was busy doing something and just had time to shoot off a quick comment. But the setup we now have being projected isn't really conducive for having both cold and a decent SW/surface circulation in place at the same time. Of course things may and probably will change with the setup with seven days to go but right now with what is being projected I am not really high on that period. Our better bet might be to root for that system to phase into the NS and set up more confluence to try to force the bigger one behind it south. That one is getting closer on the EPS. It's still likely all going to fail but that one is the best bet of a sorry lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GEFS analog for day 12-14: cold/dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Here’s some straight up for ya. Yes I know there are plenty of jokes to be had... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: March 58 and 56 are in the analog package today...so I guess maybe... I am trying here....really I am Appreciate your posts and recognition of the realities this winter season. Early March has been a window for a while, and was even mentioned back in December, although more in the context of a back loaded winter. Statistically, even in this horrendous winter we could score something white. Still fun to see if we can get an anomalous snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 List of winters that ended with a bang in March. Posted by regional NWS today. “Our winter has been nearly snow-free, but March can pull a fast one on us. In DC, March was the snowiest month of the winter in 1888, 1890, 1891, 1896, 1914, 1923, 1924, 1932, 1937, 1938, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1950, 1953, 1960, 1969, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2018.”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, WeatherShak said: List of winters that ended with a bang in March. Posted by regional NWS today. “Our winter has been nearly snow-free, but March can pull a fast one on us. In DC, March was the snowiest month of the winter in 1888, 1890, 1891, 1896, 1914, 1923, 1924, 1932, 1937, 1938, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1950, 1953, 1960, 1969, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2018.” . This year is especially favorable for a March maximum. Even a generic 3" - 5" event would top the winter for just about all the climo spots in the LWX CWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Our better bet might be to root for that system to phase into the NS and set up more confluence to try to force the bigger one behind it south. That one is getting closer on the EPS. It's still likely all going to fail but that one is the best bet of a sorry lot. As I have been saying (or nagging about ) for the last week we really need to not see the massive dump of the NS in the west. It's hell trying to make lemonade out of the big lemon of a look we would get with the huge height builds it would create in the East. Get that dump to bypass the west and dump farther east and good things are possible. And I think that SW we are talking about could possibly be a major player in that case. Models are really starting to show this feature stronger and progressing farther east then just a few days ago. Get the NS to phase with that somewhere in the east (as you mentioned above) to get a stronger system to setup confluence to our NE and our prospects look brighter. Models are also picking up on a little more active and more pressing NS as the closed low moves eastward then on previous runs all of which could make or break our possibilities with forcing suppression on that feature as it is moving eastward. But those things won't mean much, IF WE SEE THE NS DUMP INTO THE WEST. Guess everybody now knows where I stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 If parts of East Central NC get 6-12" like the NAM shows, man would that be a kick straight to the furry kiwi's. The NAM and Euro are so worlds apart in terms of the coastal enhancement and dynamics of the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: If parts of East Central NC get 6-12" like the NAM shows, man would that be a kick straight to the furry kiwi's. The NAM and Euro are so worlds apart in terms of the coastal enhancement and dynamics of the snow Fear nothing. Don't worry. I live down in NC now and have brought my Woodbridge anti snow Shield along with me. I am very prepared and looking forward to watching snowfall break out in each direction within 5 miles of my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormpc said: Fear nothing. Don't worry. I live down in NC now and have brought my Woodbridge anti snow Shield along with me. I am very prepared and looking forward to watching snowfall break out in each direction within 5 miles of my house. lol..I mean I deff think if this goes down the best stuff is well west south west of you but good luck man, hope you at least see some fatties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 WB EPS signals a chance small 20% or less chances starting late next week into the first week of March. The control also has a storm for early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: If parts of East Central NC get 6-12" like the NAM shows, man would that be a kick straight to the furry kiwi's. The NAM and Euro are so worlds apart in terms of the coastal enhancement and dynamics of the snow having the NAM keep showing this keeps hope alive....and the hope the euro responds..but as we all know...if it was us...the 00z NAM would takee us from 6-12 to a dusting in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, Ji said: having the NAM keep showing this keeps hope alive....and the hope the euro responds..but as we all know...if it was us...the 00z NAM would takee us from 6-12 to a dusting in one run Yeah but its nice having the GFS somewhat on board. I think the Euro is a little underdone. The truth usually lies in the middle, my prediction would be 2-4 for most of central NC with lollies up to 6". But its not an easy call for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 WB EPS signals a chance small 20% or less chances starting late next week into the first week of March. The control also has a storm for early March.The control always has a storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Happy hour delivers! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Happy hour delivers! fwiw it was a slight tick north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Made a separate thread for the Friday deal just to separate productive LR discussion from discussion of our likely cloudy Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Made a separate thread for the Friday deal just to separate productive LR discussion from discussion of our likely cloudy Friday. You poor masochistic son of a bitch. 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 If the pattern for early March is correct at least we would have trackabke threats. Still a long shot to get a big hit but all guidance is at least cold enough that it’s not laughable to think maybe... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the pattern for early March is correct at least we would have trackabke threats. Still a long shot to get a big hit but all guidance is at least cold enough that it’s not laughable to think maybe... ive seen way better patterns in march.....we have been awful in whatever cold shots we have had this year...so we are still talking fluke imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Made a separate thread for the Friday deal just to separate productive LR discussion from discussion of our likely cloudy Friday. Productive LR discussion? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Maybe we can get a clipper 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, PDIII said: Maybe we can get a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 34 minutes ago, Ji said: ive seen way better patterns in march.....we have been awful in whatever cold shots we have had this year...so we are still talking fluke imo I am starting to get just a little bit interested in this one. Which means its going to hurt all the more when it goes poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 If the pattern for early March is correct at least we would have trackabke threats. Still a long shot to get a big hit but all guidance is at least cold enough that it’s not laughable to think maybe...Yep it is a big if pattern for any trackable threats just like January and February have been but at this point we should let it go. Sun angle at workBut hope something materializes for even a 6 hr event come March Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Yep it is a big if pattern for any trackable threats just like January and February have been but at this point we should let it go. Sun angle at work But hope something materializes for even a 6 hr event come March Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Meh. When tracking it doesn’t matter what has happened earlier in the season. And as far as sun angle? It’s generally an overused cliche and definitely doesn’t matter when it’s dark. Plenty of late winter/early spring events the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Meh. When tracking it doesn’t matter what has happened earlier in the season. And as far as sun angle? It’s generally an overused cliche and definitely doesn’t matter when it’s dark. Plenty of late winter/early spring events the past several years. Wait that post was supposed to make sense? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wait that post was supposed to make sense? You mean his? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 29 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: You mean his? Yea...I assumed it was meant to be a parody 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Yea...I assumed it was meant to be a parody This whole thread is a parody. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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