February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

I think/hope some of the guidance bashing is just frustration.  IMO the guidance has been magnificent this year.  The NWP guidance nailed the overall winter patter from months in advance while some of the analog and SST based guidance failed miserably.  Furthermore, for the most part 99% of the time the guidance has been showing us a total fail crap pattern, and that is what we have had.  Any "hope" was only when we were trying hard and buying into an odd run or two that usually didn't have much ensemble support...or buying into some crazy long range day 15 fantasy that was only there for a run or two.  From day 10 on in the models have pretty much shown the crap we have had all winter long.  And even the rare fluke "threats" we tried to invent out of this awful pattern never made it inside day 5.  With all the possible permutations there will always be the odd run or two of operations or minority clusters of ensembles that show a "threat" in the long range...but truth is there was NEVER majority support from both a longwave pattern AND individual guidance runs to say a snow was likely.  

I suppose if all anyone did was glance at the day 15 GEFS they might think guidance was not so good...but even the GEFS never looked great...and we KNOW the GEFS (as well as the nwe op FV3 GFS) has an extreme cold bias.  So taking the day 15 GEFS at face value is user error not guidance error.  That is like knowing your car alignment is a little off to the right and refusing to correct and complaining when every 100 yards you run off the road.  Yea the tool was not perfect...but you still are more to blame.  

 

[MD Snow]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think/hope some of the guidance bashing is just frustration.  IMO the guidance has been magnificent this year.  The NWP guidance nailed the overall winter patter from months in advance while some of the analog and SST based guidance failed miserably.  Furthermore, for the most part 99% of the time the guidance has been showing us a total fail crap pattern, and that is what we have had.  Any "hope" was only when we were trying hard and buying into an odd run or two that usually didn't have much ensemble support...or buying into some crazy long range day 15 fantasy that was only there for a run or two.  From day 10 on in the models have pretty much shown the crap we have had all winter long.  And even the rare fluke "threats" we tried to invent out of this awful pattern never made it inside day 5.  With all the possible permutations there will always be the odd run or two of operations or minority clusters of ensembles that show a "threat" in the long range...but truth is there was NEVER majority support from both a longwave pattern AND individual guidance runs to say a snow was likely.  

I suppose if all anyone did was glance at the day 15 GEFS they might think guidance was not so good...but even the GEFS never looked great...and we KNOW the GEFS (as well as the nwe op FV3 GFS) has an extreme cold bias.  So taking the day 15 GEFS at face value is user error not guidance error.  That is like knowing your car alignment is a little off to the right and refusing to correct and complaining when every 100 yards you run off the road.  Yea the tool was not perfect...but you still are more to blame.  

 

Totally agree. Another thing I have noticed is that for the most part there really hasn't been many surprises inside of 96 hrs. Models have been locking onto a general storm track early on and not wavering all that much in the grand scheme of things. 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS took a solid jump north... it’s close for Central VA. Might make a thread if the 18z NAM looks decent to at least separate this event and the LR chat.

[showmethesnow]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think/hope some of the guidance bashing is just frustration.  IMO the guidance has been magnificent this year.  The NWP guidance nailed the overall winter patter from months in advance while some of the analog and SST based guidance failed miserably.  Furthermore, for the most part 99% of the time the guidance has been showing us a total fail crap pattern, and that is what we have had.  Any "hope" was only when we were trying hard and buying into an odd run or two that usually didn't have much ensemble support...or buying into some crazy long range day 15 fantasy that was only there for a run or two.  From day 10 on in the models have pretty much shown the crap we have had all winter long.  And even the rare fluke "threats" we tried to invent out of this awful pattern never made it inside day 5.  With all the possible permutations there will always be the odd run or two of operations or minority clusters of ensembles that show a "threat" in the long range...but truth is there was NEVER majority support from both a longwave pattern AND individual guidance runs to say a snow was likely.  

I suppose if all anyone did was glance at the day 15 GEFS they might think guidance was not so good...but even the GEFS never looked great...and we KNOW the GEFS (as well as the nwe op FV3 GFS) has an extreme cold bias.  So taking the day 15 GEFS at face value is user error not guidance error.  That is like knowing your car alignment is a little off to the right and refusing to correct and complaining when every 100 yards you run off the road.  Yea the tool was not perfect...but you still are more to blame.  

 

Agree 100%. Have to think the performance we saw with the models over the winter was one of their better/maybe best? efforts. The models just 10 years or even possibly 5 years ago weren't even in the same ballpark as what we saw this year. 

eta: cue the models to now go into the tank. 

[frd]

34 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Totally agree. Another thing I have noticed is that for the most part there really hasn't been many surprises inside of 96 hrs. Models have been locking onto a general storm track early on and not wavering all that much in the grand scheme of things. 

While model swings happened in November once the vortexes coupled in late December the basic ideas were more stable. I recall the every two week pattern flips, then after a while that manifested to mostly warm with at most an occasional two day period of cooler weather. 

November will go down as the month with the most impressive negative temp departures.   

[frd]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Agree 100%. Have to think the performance we saw with the models over the winter was one of their better/maybe best? efforts. The models just 10 years or even possibly 5 years ago weren't even in the same ballpark as what we saw this year. 

Impressive from even back in October when the models forecasted the positive NAM state. And,  even a very positive NAO.  The outcomes this year from the seasonal models have been stellar. 

[psuhoffman]

@showmethesnow problem with the day 7 system is we need to get lucky with a NS feature to suppress but right now the NS energy is coming in on top of the system or behind it.  That might suppress the system but its also going to wreck the mid levels and also prevent any good closed circulation to form, thus no good precip shield just the showery crap we see right now on guidance.  We need to see a trend towards getting a NS system to come across ahead of the system.  I suppose it's far enough out that is still possible, and the ridge axis across Canada is good enough that if we had some confluence in front it could work...but we haven't had that kind of luck all year.  

[Steve25]

Tell me I'm not the only person checking the models just hoping this Friday storm pulls a miracle move north haha. I feel like we've had storms ripped away from us at this range before, why not give us one back? 

I'll see myself out 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS.....period to watch remains end of February into the first week of March.  (The only area showing prob. before then is around SE VA for late this week.

[WVhighlands]

Novice question here. Do we think the greater arctic sea ice extent (I believe highest for this date since 2010) will help reset the system so we get a different pattern next winter? I realize we may not even get a better pattern but any change would be good. In the mountains of West Virginia the last four winters have been very similar and crappy , other than March 2018.

[blizzardmeiser]

12 minutes ago, WVhighlands said:

Novice question here. Do we think the greater arctic sea ice extent (I believe highest for this date since 2010) will help reset the system so we get a different pattern next winter? I realize we may not even get a better pattern but any change would be good. In the mountains of West Virginia the last four winters have been very similar and crappy , other than March 2018.

It's nowhere close to the median- just doing a bit better than the last few years

 

[nw baltimore wx]

8 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

It's nowhere close to the median- just doing a bit better than the last few years

Not to mention that a good one or two years could be decimated in the summer.

[WinterWxLuvr]

And I’m not even sure if the Arctic ice is a big driver of the overall pattern. It may be, but I would have thought it would be the tropics.

[NorthArlington101]

GFS took a solid jump north... it’s close for Central VA. Might make a thread if the 18z NAM looks decent to at least separate this event and the LR chat.

the EURO and UKIE both are pretty pathetic for everyone. still might test my threat luck anyways

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

the EURO and UKIE both are pretty pathetic for everyone. still might test my threat luck anyways

 

Does the Titanic conjure up any images for you?

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

the EURO and UKIE both are pretty pathetic for everyone. still might test my threat luck anyways

 

the euro just wont play ball for the southern weenies

[Ji]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

No one wants to hear it (for a variety of reasons) but there has been a tendency for hotter EVERYTHING lately.  

is it a cycle though?

[clskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And I’m not even sure if the Arctic ice is a big driver of the overall pattern. It may be, but I would have thought it would be the tropics.

I think its biggest impact is early in the season because you can have more cold air up north when the sea ice is strong. 

[anotherman]

is it a cycle though?

Isn’t it a hoax perpetuated by the Chinese?

[Ji]

6 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

 

AND

 

the encouraging thing is when we were hoping to get more of a south trend on the euro...it went north!

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, Ji said:

is it a cycle though?

Some is. The AO/NAO is very likely a cycle. But at the same time we are warming on a larger scale and the oceans are scorching. Could we have reached a tipping point?  It’s obvious things are skewing warmer. How much is natural cycles?  How much our fault?  I am not getting into all that and I don’t know. 

[Ji]

euro 240 looks awful man

 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro 240 looks awful man

 

Actually with that 50/50 the system coming through the west there "could" be forced under us.  Suppression is likely the bigger issue.  It's far from a great look but its better than we have had a lot of winter.  

[psuhoffman]

March 58 and 56 are in the analog package today...so I guess maybe...

I am trying here....really I am

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually with that 50/50 the system coming through the west there "could" be forced under us.  Suppression is likely the bigger issue.  It's far from a great look but its better than we have had a lot of winter.  

how long is that 50/50 going to hold though without any blocking? it seems like more of the SOS

edit--there looks like there is some ridging under greenland that may allow it to hold?

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March 58 and 56 are in the analog package today...so I guess maybe...

I am trying here....really I am

dude March 58 is a JB all time favorite analog..he has been  using since i started following him 20 years ago every march

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

dude March 58 is a JB all time favorite analog..he has been  using since i started following him 20 years ago every march

he uses that after his March 1993 analog goes by the wayside--which it always does

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

how long is that 50/50 going to hold though without any blocking? it seems like more of the SOS

edit--there looks like there is some ridging under greenland that may allow it to hold?

Yea it will move out, it needs too or NOTHING can happen with that vortex sitting over Maine...but look at the limited spacing between the waves.  By the time the NW flow and confluence relaxes behind that 50/50 the next wave should be approaching.  The spacing there looks good, and if anything, too tight.  But yes you are rightfully pointing out the flaws...its far from a perfect setup, but I am just saying its more workable that the crap we have been looking at 99% of the time.  Low bar and all...

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

he uses that after his March 1993 analog goes by the wayside--which it always does

March 58 was way less of a "fluke" than March 93.  We could repeat the 93 pattern 100 times and not get that result.  March 58 was a legit awesome pattern that would produce most of the time if repeated.  Of course none of that matters since March 58 is just one analog, most are actually crap.  But a few did evolve into something but the ones that did the NAO tanked later in March...do we really see that happening?

[showmethesnow]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow problem with the day 7 system is we need to get lucky with a NS feature to suppress but right now the NS energy is coming in on top of the system or behind it.  That might suppress the system but its also going to wreck the mid levels and also prevent any good closed circulation to form, thus no good precip shield just the showery crap we see right now on guidance.  We need to see a trend towards getting a NS system to come across ahead of the system.  I suppose it's far enough out that is still possible, and the ridge axis across Canada is good enough that if we had some confluence in front it could work...but we haven't had that kind of luck all year.  

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Have been keeping an eye on that as well. Temps will be an issue though and I am not sure how we can achieve the temps needed without killing the SW before it can have an impact on us.

 

I agree. Was sort of alluding to this in my brief comment from above. Probably should have gone into a little more detail but I was busy doing something and just had time to shoot off a quick comment. But the setup we now have being projected isn't really conducive for having both cold and a decent SW/surface circulation in place at the same time. Of course things may and probably will change with the setup with seven days to go but right now with what is being projected I am not really high on that period.