February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, what hits are you referring to?

P14/16/18/19

[cbmclean]

14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah we are in the range now where we are not likely to see big changes. Looks like a pretty weak wave that will get kicked out without doing much damage, even for places further south. If I had to guess now I would say an inch or 2 for central/eastern NC would be the max.

If I somehow managed to squeeze an inch out of this ridiculous farce of a winter, I would take it to the bank and ride off merrily into the ++++++AO sunset.  I honestly don't see it happening though.  The Fail is too strong this year.

[CAPE]

Just now, cbmclean said:

If I somehow managed to squeeze an inch out of this ridiculous farce of a winter, I would take it to the bank and ride off merrily into the ++++++AO sunset.  I honestly don't see it happening though.  The Fail is too strong this year.

Hope it works out. Btw my brother lives NW of Greensboro. Quite a storm there in Dec 2018. 14".

[cbmclean]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Hope it works out. Btw my brother lives NW of Greensboro. Quite a storm there in Dec 2018. 14".

So he lives NW of Greensboro NC and you live NW of Greensboro Maryland?  Did you guys plan that?

NW NC has actually been on a bit of a heater the two previous winters.  Two or three random waves really hit a sweet spot in various locations over there.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So he lives NW of Greensboro NC and you live NW of Greensboro Maryland?  Did you guys plan that?

NW NC has actually been on a bit of a heater the two previous winters.  Two or three random waves really hit a sweet spot in various locations over there.

HA that is a bit coincidental! 

He used to live in High Point, then moved out to Oak Ridge. Nice area.

[psuhoffman]

I wouldn’t bet on it working out but the euro control and op gfs both show there is still some potential long range.  The idea of a cold dump is still there. Then we just have to get lucky. Gfs has 3 NS SWs run interference and mess up 3 straight threats. I could see that. Euro control has a beautiful west to east storm that crushes southern VA and fringed us. I can see that. I suppose I could also see us getting a hit but it requires a lot more alcohol and squinting. 

[yoda]

Lol 00z NAM crushes NC

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Lol 00z NAM crushes NC

Congrats RDU, wow

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Congrats RDU, wow

I just got NAMed.

[Grothar of Herndon]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I just got NAMed.

Big time!

[Dabuckeyes]

Temps are near 40. Suspect of those snow maps. 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

Temps are near 40. Suspect of those snow maps. 

Lot better than we are doing

[yoda]

00z ICON also looks nice for them... though not as heavy as the 00z NAM is

[yoda]

00z GFS tries to throw some flurries or maybe light snow up here HRs 72 and 78... looks a lil bit better than 18z

[NorthArlington101]

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z GFS tries to throw some flurries or maybe light snow up here HRs 72 and 78... looks a lil bit better than 18z

Yep, I'll take any little positive trend I can get. Flurries are definitely a win. Verbatim it shows the second biggest event of the year in Charlottesville actually lol.

[pazzo83]

I saw mentions of March 2001 storm in this thread - it was my understanding that bringing up that cursed storm was a bannable offense?

[NorthArlington101]

I'm not really qualified to make this post, but here is my attempt at extremely informal analysis. Only doing this because I've been interested in this storm and this storm is low stakes so if I'm wrong it can hopefully be a teaching moment rather than me being burnt at the stake. Please correct me if I'm wrong -- its very likely I could be.

I think (and if this is wrong ignore the whole post) what made the 18z ICON such a wacky/promising run was that the vort digs more over Tennessee. Looking at the 00z run, you can see the ICON backs off on this dig a decent bit, which obviously sucks.

That said, the 00z GFS made positive steps in that direction and have been for some time now.

00z GFS:

NAM is too long-range to really look at but I didn't hate how it shifted from 18z to 00z either.

I don't necessarily know what I'm talking about, but I don't hate the progress we've made today. I'm obviously slightly more optimistic than others because Charlottesville is a better spot to be in here than somewhere in NOVA or N MD, but I think this is worth a look still.

[Snowchaser]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm not really qualified to make this post, but here is my attempt at extremely informal analysis. Only doing this because I've been interested in this storm and this storm is low stakes so if I'm wrong it can hopefully be a teaching moment rather than me being burnt at the stake. Please correct me if I'm wrong -- its very likely I could be.

I think (and if this is wrong ignore the whole post) what made the 18z ICON such a wacky/promising run was that the vort digs more over Tennessee. Looking at the 00z run, you can see the ICON backs off on this dig a decent bit, which obviously sucks.

That said, the 00z GFS made positive steps in that direction and have been for some time now.

00z GFS:

NAM is too long-range to really look at but I didn't hate how it shifted from 18z to 00z either.

I don't necessarily know what I'm talking about, but I don't hate the progress we've made today. I'm obviously slightly more optimistic than others because Charlottesville is a better spot to be in here than somewhere in NOVA or N MD, but I think this is worth a look still.

CMC even brings some snow up near DC. Possibly an inch or so near Cville.

[NorthArlington101]

Casual run-to-run shifts on the CMC. No biggie.

 

[Ji]

Lol dr no for the southeast strikes again

[showmethesnow]

Wow. Euro almost gets it done day 8/9. See the SW dump drop much farther to the east as it follows the lead shortwaves track and now cuts through our region. This is the result.

eta:  The difference maker here is that we have seen a major change over top with energy in the NS now over riding the storm through southern Canada.

[Solution Man]

NAM, ticking north

[Weather Will]

23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Wow. Euro almost gets it done day 8/9. Front running shortwave cuts out a track for the SW dump to follow. See the SW dump drop much farther to the east and now cuts through our region. This is the result.

WB 0z EPS end of next week which is the first period I thought had a chance if the trough can dig deeper on the East coast.  Not sure if that is possible without more ridging out west.  Keep expectations very low.  

[showmethesnow]

Here are the changes we saw within the Euro from 12z to 00z.

***The objective here is to get the 500s/cutoff low through or underneath our region***

Below is the 12z run and the initial dump is into the West. As it moves eastward it is encounter higher heights that were produced by that aggressive SW dump. For those who read my post awhile ago one way I mentioned to get a more southern track dealt with the ridging in front. If we could see a sharper hooking ridge with the higher height anomalies running over top the system this would be one way. As I also mentioned inserting a 50/50 into this setup might accomplish this. As you can see we have neither so this cutoff is shooting north.

 

 

But this is the overnight run. Substantial differences across the board. We are now seeing the SW dump much farther to the East so we aren't seeing that strong ridging popping up in the east. If you also note we now have ridging in the west vs. the troughing/lower heights we see above. But the biggest difference maker here for the closed lows track (besides the obvious muting of the ridging in the east) is what we are seeing over top. We now have a SW running in front and over top this closed low suppressing the flow and the closed low along with it. This run came very close to a very satisfactory event for our region. Another 50/100 miles shift south...

 

 

Now the latest run was pretty much an outlier from what I have seen on guidance for quite awhile now and it is an op run at range to boot. So I wouldn't get too invested in its solution at this time. 

***If anything on this op run is to be right I hope it is with how it initially handles the dump. Get it much farther to the east into the central CONUS instead of the deep SW and it would be a much more forgiving pattern that would open up more options.  And this might actually have some play (fingers crossed) as we saw the 12z back off on that as well from previous runs. Guess it's time to check the EPS to see if we are seeing changes there as well.

[showmethesnow]

Quickly looking over the EPS and we have seen the EPS stepping away from the initial strong SW dump on the last 2 runs as well. Now the followup with the 500's is still tracking it to our north and west but that is of little consequence at this time. Just know that this change in the initial dump puts us in a far better position as the 500's progress eastward.

[poolz1]

Think I am going to go ahead and move on to the D15.5 threat.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[Ji]

41 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Think I am going to go ahead and move on to the D15.5 threat.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

GFS378-384 for the win. On March 4 too....19 years later lol

[showmethesnow]

Haven't really been invested in the late Thur/Fri possibilities for the DC/Balt region let alone in MBY but I thought I would throw up something for those that are farther south and may have some interest in it. 

Now this is the overnight CMC. It is the best solution I see at this time with a good deal less suppression running interference then some of the other models. So keep that in mind with its more northerly solution. What we have is a northerly flow from 850 mbs down to the surface through the mid-Atlantic region funneling cold air southward. Now where we probably want to keep an eye on is what is happening above the 850s up through 700 mbs as this is where the the precip will be created. What I want you to note is the wind barb directions of the air flow we are seeing at 700 mbs. As you can see the wind barbs through S Va and N Carolina are from a SWesterly direction. This is funneling moisture over top of the colder air in place at the lower levels and where the cold is deep enough and cold enough we are seeing snow. But now look to the north through N Va and MD. We are seeing the winds from a W/NW direction which is bringing in dry air from the north and the west. So if you want to follow the upper levels to get an idea where the precip will be  just draw a line where these wind barbs intersect and shift it a little northward it will give you a good idea where the northern extent of the precip will shut off.

 

 

Now I haven't been high on this period of time for quite awhile and that really hasn't changed. But I will point out that if we were to see the suppression to our NE dampen down a fair bit with the same amount of dig we are currently seeing with the trailing SW the resulting look would actually be a good one for prospects up into MD. But as it is we are now talking under 3 days and it is probably asking to much to see the changes we need to see. But I have seen stranger things happen in less time so I guess you never know.

[Weather Will]

WB GFS Day 16.  Appears to be the second threat window and perhaps the last as we lose the favorable EPO around this time.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Haven't really been invested in the late Thur/Fri possibilities for the DC/Balt region let alone in MBY but I thought I would throw up something for those that are farther south and may have some interest in it. 

Now this is the overnight CMC. It is the best solution I see at this time with a good deal less suppression running interference then some of the other models. So keep that in mind with its more northerly solution. What we have is a northerly flow from 850 mbs down to the surface through the mid-Atlantic region funneling cold air southward. Now where we probably want to keep an eye on is what is happening above the 850s up through 700 mbs as this is where the the precip will be created. What I want you to note is the wind barb directions of the air flow we are seeing at 700 mbs. As you can see the wind barbs through S Va and N Carolina are from a SWesterly direction. This is funneling moisture over top of the colder air in place at the lower levels and where the cold is deep enough and cold enough we are seeing snow. But now look to the north through N Va and MD. We are seeing the winds from a W/NW direction which is bringing in dry air from the north and the west. So if you want to follow the upper levels to get an idea where the precip will be  just draw a line where these wind barbs intersect and shift it a little northward it will give you a good idea where the northern extent of the precip will shut off.

 

 

Now I haven't been high on this period of time for quite awhile and that really hasn't changed. But I will point out that if we were to see the suppression to our NE dampen down a fair bit with the same amount of dig we are currently seeing with the trailing SW the resulting look would actually be a good one for prospects up into MD. But as it is we are now talking under 3 days and it is probably asking to much to see the changes we need to see. But I have seen stranger things happen in less time so I guess you never know.

It's dead , Jim.