Weather Will Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 WB 6Z GEFS. Looks like two possible shots. One next weekend, if that trough ends up deeper on the east coast, and then our last shot perhaps after Day 16. Those are the two periods that I am watching with some interest to see if the snow prob maps will respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 ICON closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Trend is sharper and further west with the NS 500 mb energy. Going to be difficult to get enough interaction with the ss before it gets shunted out. Looking kinda interesting for much of NC and SE VA now on recent guidance though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: ICON closer. Aw man...Of course it would be just like this winter would try and throw in one "just missed!" to twist the knife...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Trend is sharper and further west with the NS 500 mb energy. Going to be difficult to get enough interaction with the ss before it gets shunted out. Looking kinda interesting for much of NC and SE VA now on recent guidance though.. I have seen this movie before and it always ends up badly...the models make a significant north push and then there is that one run where we need 100 miles more north and instead it goes 75 miles south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Only fitting that just about the only place in the CONUS that has less snow than us gets hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Only fitting that just about the only place in the CONUS that has less snow than us gets hit. 12z GFS still a whiff down that way, but it did actually take a step towards the other guidance at h5. Up here we are likely chasing a near hit at best. Maybe its a good sign that places south of here are being threatened with a little snow. I know that's in the weenie handbook somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 ive never seen storm in this location giving us dry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I think the Canadian will double down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Canadian wont be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Canadian looks flatter to me so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Canadian wont be good. Yep, now going in wrong direction, everything gets squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 This is, at best, a southern slider. Next. Oh wait, there isn't a next. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This is, at best, a southern slider. Next. Oh wait, there isn't a next. the trough couldn't be more positive. where's the se ridge when we need it. maybe it nudges a little north towards gametime, but it'll need to nudge quite a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, 87storms said: the trough couldn't be more positive. where's the se ridge when we need it. maybe it nudges a little north towards gametime, but it'll need to nudge quite a bit. Enough cold air in place for something nice Shame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: ive never seen storm in this location giving us dry One problem there is the flow is de amplified but also there isn’t enough cold to really resist the WAA ahead of a low there to create the stout WAA precip you typically see in a winter synoptic system located there. You need enough resistance to the southerly flow to create enough lift to get that. Otherwise you get a more typical spring/summer showery look to the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Enough cold air in place for something nice Shame there's just nothing keeping the cold air locked in...it seems to either get run out of town or trails a rainer. need a perfectly timed setup with cold being so transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Enough cold air in place for something nice Shame If the longwave pattern sucks monkey nuts such that the only time we can get cold is with a strong NW flow behind a wave (when everything will be suppressed) odds of getting snow are minimal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: there's just nothing keeping the cold air locked in...it seems to either get run out of town or trails a rainer. need a perfectly timed setup with cold being so transient. I feel your pain up here. Awful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Not even speaking about snow - but the weather in general just looks incredibly boring. Had it not been for that surprise TOR/severe day this would have been an exceedingly boring stretch...unless you like tracking steady rain. If we can't score with winter weather...I hope spring brings some excitement at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 This is the Friday the 13th of patterns. So many sequels, each worse than the one before it. And it never dies. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I hope this winter sacrifice results in more sea ice, new sea ice of course, and snow pack up top for future winters. If I really thought that was true I’d say this was worth it. Have to believe an entire winter of +AO helps that cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 My optimistic spin of the day...early March still holds “some” potential. Before that everything is lottery ticket type threats. There are signs that shortening wavelengths are starting to create the chaos we need to at least have a chance. The cold that creates the threat for NC this week comes due to a super transient ridge intrusion into and through the eastern EPO domain. It’s too short lived such that by the time the flow has a chance to relax and back enough for anything to develop the ridge has progressed too far. This time the ridge progresses over top of us as a system tries to come east only the flow is suppressive in front, not really that cold, and the trough digging in the west is stealing most of the energy. It’s another long shot. But after that all guidance suggests another ridge progresses into NW Canada. This time it lasts long enough (several days) to create a true cold dump into the eastern US. That’s true across all guidance. It won’t last. It’s not a true pattern change imo just chaos from shorter wavelengths allowing transient ridges to progress where they couldn’t during the stable winter longwave pattern. But any change will snap back to the status quo imo. But the biggest correlation to snow in March is simply cold. March had by far the largest sample of “weird” snowstorms. Patterns that looked odd that produced snow. H5 looks that made no sense. Get that cold dump for the first week of March and we have a chance. The long range 12z gfs shows how it could work. 2 waves come out before the cold is scoured. Because they split the energy wave 1 gets suppressed. If that ejects whole that is likely a snow threat. Storm 2 could have been after day 16. The look is already breaking down and after that second wave day 17 we will warm up on that look but we would have had 2 shots first. I know a long range op isn’t going to be close but the longwave pattern matches all the ensembles and I’m just using it’s details to show how that “could” work. It’s not a great look. Expectations should be low. But it’s the best chance we have had. Get a huge dump of cold in March and roll the dice. It’s all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I hope this winter sacrifice results in more sea ice, new sea ice of course, and snow pack up top for future winters. If I really thought that was true I’d say this was worth it. Have to believe an entire winter of +AO helps that cause Unfortunately - at least based on this - it's not doing much for the ice so far. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I usually only casually look at day 10 + but cold air doesn't look to be a problem if the Gefs is correct down the road. That look is universal across guidance. It’s overdone on the gefs (cold bias) but it’s plenty good enough on the geps and eps too. As I was saying above that’s our best looking opportunity coming of the year. That’s a low bar but it is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: lock it in wow awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 WB 12Z GEFS Mean Next Friday and snow map 28th thru 4th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS Mean Next Friday and snow map 28th thru 4th. thats pretty good. Im going to give up on the Feb 24-25 storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: If the longwave pattern sucks monkey nuts such that the only time we can get cold is with a strong NW flow behind a wave (when everything will be suppressed) odds of getting snow are minimal. If only you posted this in early Dec you would have been spot-on for majority of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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