Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: feels like Tuesday is a tad early to bail even though the year has been pretty dreadful. If the Euro starts to leak oil today then yeah...but until then I say the GFS hasn't had a grasp all winter from this distance Even then it's too early as long as the shortwave remains intact. Once we get to 72 hours or less the clock starts really ticking on big adjustments. I'll reserve bailing until we're 72 hours out and all the oil leaked and the engine blows pistons out of the cylinder head. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Ukmet just got a quart of Pennzoil added Considering it didnt have much to begin with at 0z . We need 4 quartz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: We need 4 quartz *quarts quartz is a mineral 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 42 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Other than the distinct possibility of it being a weak sauce, progressive sw, marginal, fleeting cold, and it tracking too far north, nothing to worry about. Nevermind...forget I said it, smh (I blame Bob, lol I took what he said about this kind of event USUALLY working for us a bit to literally, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs says dont give up on Friday yet Friday? I thought we had Thursday AM and Sunday -- i can't keep track! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, mappy said: *quarts quartz is a mineral Thanks for catching my spell check mappy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs says dont give up on Friday yet WB 12Z GEFS. Note a dusting of this accumulation is from Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: Thanks for catching my spell check mappy you're welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I hate being mentally conditioned to fail. That's what made me step back last week. The upcoming period in general has a fatal flaw so I'm hanging onto the weekend shortwave because it's the only thing promising. Beyond that people need to not ignore the fact that longwave patterns act like rubber bands so as long as the troughs keep dropping in the west the height rises or north trend in the east can't be offset. The only thing that can offset a -PNA is blocking. Considering we have nearly record breaking unblocking there is no way I'll believe a long range prog showing snow on a gradient wave. Even PA/NY will struggle at times with this set of features. MD doesn't work with 2 strikes against like 90% of the time and that's what we have in the upper levels... at least 2 strikes against... So are you cancelling winter after this weekend? (I was holding out a little hope and watching to see if we'd be looking at anything for next week by the end of this week. But if you're saying it's pretty much impossible for anything to work...I guess anything we'd see show up by say, this Friday, for next week...we shouldn't give it any credence, or?) Any chance of a fluke? (I know you'll say there's always a chance of a fluke...lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just can’t keep it from snowing here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z GEFS Members thru early Sat. So we have 3 impulses to watch for frozen? Freezing rain overnight Wed 12k NAM only., Friday/early Sat. (GFS only), and Sat. night Early Sunday (King and everyone else.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: you're welcome! In forum motherly fashion, she corrects the children's spelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 42 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: feels like Tuesday is a tad early to bail even though the year has been pretty dreadful. If the Euro starts to leak oil today then yeah...but until then I say the GFS hasn't had a grasp all winter from this distance I don't think anybody is giving up, nor should they...just way more pessimistic than I normally would be. I'm still in. The Euro will save us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: In forum motherly fashion, she corrects the children's spelling Yeah, gotta check my keyboard corrections round (around) here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: In forum motherly fashion, she corrects the children's spelling 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Yeah, gotta check my keyboard corrections round (around) here to be fair, it was an obvious typo -- s and z are right next to each other. but i laughed at quarts to quartz and how drastically different they are. thats all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, mappy said: to be fair, it was an obvious typo -- s and z are right next to each other. but i laughed at quarts to quartz and how drastically different they are. thats all Mappy...you know you are good with me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So are you cancelling winter after this weekend? (I was holding out a little hope and watching to see if we'd be looking at anything for next week by the end of this week. But if you're saying it's pretty much impossible for anything to work...I guess anything we'd see show up by say, this Friday, for next week...we shouldn't give it any credence, or?) Any chance of a fluke? (I know you'll say there's always a chance of a fluke...lol) No, of course not. I only look 2 weeks down the line. Weather is like the stock market. You can make sense of it fairly often but no matter how much you know it can still surprise the F out of you. I do think all the gradient waves are likely fails though. If you look at everything in totality it's a terrible and low probability way we get snow here. There's nothing to stop cold from running away and nothing to stop shortwaves from tracking north of us. It does look interesting beyond d12 but I'm done with anything d10+. It's been nothing but mirages and failures for 8 straight weeks. It would be insane to expect different outcomes until they are really close in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I just saw a squirrel bury a nut, maybe that's a sign lol. Maybe it just thinks it's fall again because of these temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12Z EURO does not like NAM's TH. am freezing rain or the GFS Friday snow... (Shocker)…..waiting for Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 12z EURO stronger shortwave at 15Z Sat. compared to 0Z same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 The shortwave looks healthy on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 has some light stuff over us sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: The shortwave looks healthy on the 12z Euro. Bring it home now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 12 Z EURO at 0z Sunday...incoming also better than OZ at same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Euro should be good. Snow into the cities at 111. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 snow tv---but it is snow not rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB EURO at 3Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Euro doesn't look as good at the surface compared to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 i think its an overall fail...light and quick--its over by Late sat night but its something so.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 i would expect it to get better if this is really the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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