CAPE Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 @psuhoffman Sure we could still thread the needle with a flattish wave, perfectly timed with enough spacing, just as the cold is departing. But this upcoming pattern was supposed to be "different". It does not look that way though. It's just more of the same. Thats all I am saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: @psuhoffman Sure we could still thread the needle with a flattish wave. perfectly timed with enough spacing just as the cold is departing. But this upcoming pattern was supposed to be "different". It does not look that way though. It's just more of the same. Thats all I am saying. If the ridging across Canada can hold for a week it could work. It would be a repeat of the late January period that actually almost produced a snow. It was the closest we came in this crap pattern. Only this time with more cold stuck under the ridge (if that dump is real and doesn’t get muted). If the AK and Greenland tpv never relax the whole thing collapses. But if we do get a dump of cold and a week with a central or western Canada ridge that would be our best look of the winter. That’s a very very low bar, and there are way too many “ifs” in there to bet money on it...just trying to find a silver lining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Phase 5/6 feeds that mid latitude pac ridge that’s been a problem all season. I think the cause behind the doom and gloom analog data I pointed out around New Years is that when you see such a strong forcing signal in that area in coordination with that anomalous a ridge in the central pac...its highly indicative of a base state that favors continued forcing in that region. And that is what we have seen. Every attempt at forcing propagating out of that region meets resistance. Even when we get some favorable forcing in the IO it’s being muted by a standing wave in the western Pac constantly reforming. I’ve also theorized that pac forcing effects us more than IO forcing. I’ve recently seen some other Mets post that same thought so if a wave in the pac is conflicting with the IO the pac forcing is likely to win out. Great post. Even last February we had a decent mjo pass in 8-1-2 but we still got a Niña response. I agree, the first week of March is probably are best shot (not saying much) at something. But unfortunately this doesn’t look like a pattern breaker. Convection is once again going to form in 5/6 and we go back to the same look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the ridging across Canada can hold for a week it could work. It would be a repeat of the late January period that actually almost produced a snow. It was the closest we came in this crap pattern. Only this time with more cold stuck under the ridge (if that dump is real and doesn’t get muted). If the AK and Greenland tpv never relax the whole thing collapses. But if we do get a dump of cold and a week with a central or western Canada ridge that would be our best look of the winter. That’s a very very low bar, and there are way too many “ifs” in there to bet money on it...just trying to find a silver lining. The way I see it evolving(most likely) if that all too familiar advertised anomalous ridge in the PAC is real(pretty good bet), the trough out west will dig hard, and a ridge will build downstream behind the departing eastern cold. The only difference I see in the overall pattern is the ridging in Canada, which is rapidly losing amplitude at the end of the run as the AK and GL vortices reemerge/converge. Sure there might be a briefly "favorable" window in that mess for something, but we both know how likely it is to actually produce lol. eta- looking at the latest EPS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: A winter like this underscores how important latitude is. Even the local western highlands cant escape the hostility of the pattern. Anyone who wants snow regardless of the pattern needs to relocate to the inter mountain west, or somewhere between Minnesota and Maine. Or El Paso or Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: I hate it here. at a minimum, we have 2 more weeks of this. Not sure what's Lower than the valley but I think were there We are in a trench, under a cavern under the valley. I never thought I'd live through another winter as bad as 97-98. Possible this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Only one warm rain event this week before we end it with another 2 day dry chill down. Progress. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We are in a trench, under a cavern under the valley. I never thought I'd live through another winter as bad as 97-98. Possible this year. And even 97-98 had more snow than we have right now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 WB EPS 12Z. Looks increasingly likely that we punt the rest of February as expected. Next 10 days or so looks drier overall. I guess the EPO forecast is our hope for the changes up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 50 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And even 97-98 had more snow than we have right now, lol Depends on your location. I think ‘97-‘98 had only .1” in DC. We have that beat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I never thought I'd live through another winter as bad as 97-98. Honest question: but why? If it could happen in 97 - 98, why couldn't it happen again, especially with the phenomenon which shall not be named occurring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 49 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Depends on your location. I think ‘97-‘98 had only .1” in DC. We have that beat. I keep forgetting to distinguish between DCA and BWI, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 And no guarantee next year is good. 98-99 was awful right? Till March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ji said: And no guarantee next year is good. 98-99 was awful right? Till March? There was a massive ice storm in January but other then that yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 March? Yeah. It happens in March.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Scraff said: March? Yeah. It happens in March.... Um, the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor in December. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 There was a massive ice storm in January but other then that yeah Oh yea. I'd kill for ice storm right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, Inthepines said: There was a massive ice storm in January but other then that yeah Oh yea. I'd kill for ice storm right now I'd kill for a nobel peace prize right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: And no guarantee next year is good. 98-99 was awful right? Till March? It's going to flip on us here soon. Go back and look at the AO monthlies. There's a pretty clear cycle of biased positive and negative over decadal timeframes. What we've been dealing with since 2011 is not uncommon. Will it end next year? No idea but it will go back to a neg bias in the not too distant future. I'm very confident in that. Just thank your lucky stars for 2013-15. We had back to back deep winter with a hostile AO. That may never happen again in our lifetimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: And no guarantee next year is good. 98-99 was awful right? Till March? I have been plowing through the monthly statistics at RDU, which the closest NWS site for me. This year had the sixth warmest January on record. The record is Jan 1950, but #3 is Jan 1949. So 1949-50 had two back to back January crapfests. It can happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's going to flip on us here soon. Go back and look at the AO monthlies. There's a pretty clear cycle of biased positive and negative over decadal timeframes. What we've been dealing with since 2011 is not uncommon. Will it end next year? No idea but it will go back to a neg bias in the not too distant future. I'm very confident in that. Just thank your lucky stars for 2013-15. We had back to back deep winter with a hostile AO. That may never happen again in our lifetimes I know you're backed by the data, but man it is a loooooooong wait. I will note that if the previous negative bias period ended after 2010 - 11, then near the end the blocking was historic So perhaps this year is the mirror image "grand finale" of the crap + period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I know you're backed by the data, but man it is a loooooooong wait. I will note that if the previous negative bias period ended after 2010 - 11, then near the end the blocking was historic So perhaps this year is the mirror image "grand finale" of the crap + period. It's not a neat pretty cycle because always some opposite years during cycles. If there wasn't compelling evidence that these cycles exist I would start thinking new normal stuff but that's not the case and anyone who thinks otherwise is not being objective. We had some opposite years that were ruined by something else (ak vortex usually). We live in a boom/bust area and that's just part of normal life. Deal with it or move. Complaining over and over every year isn't constructive. If it gets to you that bad then set goals, make a plan, and gtf outta here Eta: not speaking directly at you at all. Just in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: Um, the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor in December. Was it a -AO? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Lol at the people saying no more cold and snow. They will be in for a rude awakening come late February into March when the cold and snow will arrive. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Lol at the people saying no more cold and snow. They will be in for a rude awakening come late February into March when the cold and snow will arrive. And who are these people that have been living under a snowless mud-rock that are saying this??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's not a neat pretty cycle because always some opposite years during cycles. If there wasn't compelling evidence that these cycles exist I would start thinking new normal stuff but that's not the case and anyone who thinks otherwise is not being objective. We had some opposite years that were ruined by something else (ak vortex usually). We live in a boom/bust area and that's just part of normal life. Deal with it or move. Complaining over and over every year isn't constructive. If it gets to you that bad then set goals, make a plan, and gtf outta here Eta: not speaking directly at you at all. Just in general Well, on the positive side, when the flip does occur, it will make this long-track, well blocked-storms all the more precious after having years like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And who are these people that have been living under a snowless mud-rock that are saying this??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Who is Bryan Alston, and why has he stolen Maestrobjwa's icon!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/16/north-america-on-the-long-term-16th-feb/ My final long range snowfall forecast for the season. Looks to continue to be bleak for the Eastern US (Mid-Atlantic included) unfortunately. Similar negating factors as there have been all winter. I also verified my seasonal forecast from November. I predicted an average season, that ended up being below average for the Northeast coast. The interior didn’t do much better either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 43 minutes ago, Scraff said: What...(ya know, I shoulda known better than to use the same icon on Twitter...lol) But I don't quite understand your response...I wasn't the one that was complaining about cold and snow! I think ya just posted this to troll me...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now