February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL.

I just looked at the gfs. I’m not sure how it could look worse 

Agreed. If it is right you can kiss the rest of Feb and early March goodbye. Worst winter ever if that happens IMO.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

That went into the tank fast. Last I saw a couple of days ago it was firmly into 8 with some decent amplitude. 

 

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I know that's what the GEFS was forecasting. Not sure the EPS ever went to that look. I haven't been watching closely, but I think it has been generally keeping the forcing near the MC, but on the weak side.

When is Mersky back? We need an expert up in here.

The euro and canadien never went way into 8 like the gefs.  Gefs has backed off too. After 3 days in 8 it reverses and slides back into 7. 7 is a really bad phase late Feb into March. 8 isn’t really all that good anymore either.  Shorter wavelengths are making 8 forcing too far west to do as much good anymore. We need 1-2-3 now.  8 is still better but not as good as in Dec-Januar.  The euro did look slightly more promising the last few days trending towards 8 but now does a sudden u turn just like the last attempt at a cycle into cold phases. Mersky could tell us how that worked out. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The euro and canadien never went way into 8 like the gefs.  Gefs has backed off too. After 3 days in 8 it reverses and slides back into 7. 7 is a really bad phase late Feb into March. 8 isn’t really all that good anymore either.  Shorter wavelengths are making 8 forcing too far west to do as much good anymore. We need 1-2-3 now.  8 is still better but not as good as in Dec-Januar.  The euro did look slightly more promising the last few days trending towards 8 but now does a sudden u turn just like the last attempt at a cycle into cold phases. Mersky could tell us how that worked out. 

Looks like the wave will die in 7 then a kelvin wave forms in 8. By the 11th the roundy plots have a wave forming in 5/6. 

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Also noticed the AO ready for another huge climb up after the recent record over over +6 SD. 

Wait, I know it went over +6, but is that unit in standard deviations in the normal sense?  Just historically it seems to spend a lot more time outside of +/-2 than I would expect for something with a normal (gaussian) distribution.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Last I saw with the EPS it was broaching 7 with low amplitude and heading back into the COD. 

Problem though is it is dumping into the COD after traveling through the warm phases at a pretty good amplitude. Usually get a residual hangover from those phases.

Not only is a COD following an amplified wave in warm phases not good, but weak cold phase convection in years with a strong warm base state rarely does any good.  I’m very early in the data research but so far the hypothesis that the mjo correlates with pattern response most when it is coupled with the atmospheric base state seems to be true. I think the reason phase 8-1-2 have cold correlations is because in years with a favorable cold pattern base state (ninos) we tend to get highly amplified cold phase waves AND we tend to see waves in those phases for more of the winter.  It’s a feedback loop. But in warm state (Nina like) winters weak waves into 8-1-2 don’t have nearly as much effect.  Usually when we did see a flip it was with a very strong mjo wave into cold phases and it was indicative of an actual more permanent pattern change in the background base state.   

It works both ways btw.  In years like 1978, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014, 2015 (once the pattern flipped late Jan) ... weak warm phase convection doesn’t have the negative effects either.  We survived weak warm waves and even snowed during some of them in those years.  

To simplify...the mjo alone won’t save us. The mjo is one piece of a symbiotic puzzle.   The mjo can certainly give us strong clues to what the picture is and the base state, and it is.  And if we see a strong amplified wave into 8-1-2 then we can guess a true pattern change might be coming.  But seeing attempts at weak waves skirting the edges of cold phases during a hostile pattern is unlikely to do much good.  I suppose it can signal a slight “relax” of the very hostile forcing so maybe it highlights an increased opportunity for a lucky fluke, but that’s about it imo.  

I think the fact we can see some crazy solutions in March gives us the best chance at getting lucky  

 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Wait, I know it went over +6, but is that unit in standard deviations in the normal sense?  Just historically it seems to spend a lot more time outside of +/-2 than I would expect for something with a normal (gaussian) distribution.

I believe SD.  It has during the past 6 weeks gyrated significantly between neutral and highly positive. Just as the EPO has been forecasted several times since mid December to go negative only to adjust to positive or neutral,  so has the AO reverted back to highly positive or positive after modeling indicated it was going to go back to negative territory.

 

   

[dallen7908]

10 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Wait, I know it went over +6, but is that unit in standard deviations in the normal sense?  Just historically it seems to spend a lot more time outside of +/-2 than I would expect for something with a normal (gaussian) distribution.

Clearly, not a Gaussian distribution. 

[Ji]

I shutdown my stupid facebook site on feb 4th for the winter. Definitely the best part about this disaster

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the wave will die in 7 then a kelvin wave forms in 8. By the 11th the roundy plots have a wave forming in 5/6. 

Phase 5/6 feeds that mid latitude pac ridge that’s been a problem all season. I think the cause behind the doom and gloom  analog data I pointed out around New Years is that when you see such a strong forcing signal in that area in coordination with that anomalous a ridge in the central pac...its highly indicative of a base state that favors continued forcing in that region. And that is what we have seen. Every attempt at forcing propagating out of that region meets resistance. Even when we get some favorable forcing in the IO it’s being muted by a standing wave in the western Pac constantly reforming. I’ve also theorized that pac forcing effects us more than IO forcing. I’ve recently seen some other Mets post that same thought so if a wave in the pac is conflicting with the IO the pac forcing is likely to win out. 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Canadian tries to get a closed ull under us at hr 200 . Mixed bag verbatim 

Looks like 100% rain in DC and 90% rain after an inch of slop in the extreme NW part of this sub.  I know your trying and keep it up...but it’s by far the furthest south with that system of all guidance and it’s still mostly or all rain for this sub. 

What we would need to see for that threat to trend better would be something to knock down the ridging ahead of that system. Lower heights to our northeast. Right now the ridging there sets up way too much southerly flow ahead of that system. 

[psuhoffman]

Ok enough with the obvious negatives, I’ll offer one legit positive. The guidance all does agree on a temporary relax in both the Greenland and AK vortexes that have been killing us. The response dumps cold into the area. The longwave pattern does probably quickly revert to crap but if you put cold into the conus in March things could work out. Clippers, weak boundary waves that don’t even show up at h5, crazy cutoffs...weird things happen in March sometimes. Having cold around makes it possible. 

[psuhoffman]

Pretty good agreement on the cold dump at least 

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok enough with the obvious negatives, I’ll offer one legit positive. The guidance all does agree on a temporary relax in both the Greenland and AK vortexes that have been killing us. The response dumps cold into the area. The longwave pattern does probably quickly revert to crap but if you put cold into the conus in March things could work out. Clippers, weak boundary waves that don’t even show up at h5, crazy cutoffs...weird things happen in March sometimes. Having cold around makes it possible. 

If you guys can pull in the cold from the north I'll try to guard your southern frontier to hold back the return flow.  It shall not pass!!

Seriously though, which guidance is showing this relaxation?  I have to admit to having basically checked out, so I haven't been following the trends.

[cbmclean]

Just now, cbmclean said:

If you guys can pull in the cold from the north I'll try to guard your southern frontier to hold back the return flow.  It shall not pass!!

Seriously though, which guidance is showing this relaxation?  I have to admit to having basically checked out, so I haven't been following the trends.

Never mind, you answered me before I could even ask the question.

[cbmclean]

36 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Clearly, not a Gaussian distribution. 

Somewhere on the CPC site I think they have the daily AO data back to 1950.  I think I might try to pull it and do a histogram to see what the distribution looks like.

[Ji]

Awesome

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok enough with the obvious negatives, I’ll offer one legit positive. The guidance all does agree on a temporary relax in both the Greenland and AK vortexes that have been killing us. The response dumps cold into the area. The longwave pattern does probably quickly revert to crap but if you put cold into the conus in March things could work out. Clippers, weak boundary waves that don’t even show up at h5, crazy cutoffs...weird things happen in March sometimes. Having cold around makes it possible. 

Any relax in the ++NAO looks pretty darn temporary if the GEFS is correct lol. Guess we will find out if that western ridge is real/ how much impact it will have on our sensible weather heading into early March.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Awesome

At least that low looks like it moves off the SE coast and spares us from a big coastal rainer.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Awesome

Eps is similiar 

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Awesome

I hate it here. 
 

at a minimum, we have 2 more weeks of this.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not seen  winter this bad since the 90-91 years. Even those had cold weather bouts in March though

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not seen  winter this bad since the 90-91 years. Even those had cold weather bouts in March though

I don’t think 90 got cold until late March then there was a snow in April 

[Ji]

I hate it here. 
 
at a minimum, we have 2 more weeks of this.  

Not sure what's Lower than the valley but I think were there

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Any relax in the ++NAO looks pretty darn temporary if the GEFS is correct lol. Guess we will find out if that western ridge is real/ how much impact it will have on our sensible weather heading into early March.

The Greenland tpv shifts northeast at the same time the AK one pulls NW which temporarily allows enough cold to dump into the conus between the two features to make things interesting if we can time something up. Assuming the relax even happens. It’s tenuous. Shift both of those 2 features slightly and it becomes more of the same with no cold at all. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not seen  winter this bad since the 90-91 years. Even those had cold weather bouts in March though

A winter like this underscores how important latitude is. Even the local western highlands cant escape the hostility of the pattern. Anyone who wants snow regardless of the pattern needs to relocate to the inter mountain west, or somewhere between Minnesota and Maine.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hate it here. 
 
at a minimum, we have 2 more weeks of this.  

Not sure what's Lower than the valley but I think were there

The soft underbelly and we are on a non stop

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The Greenland tpv shifts northeast at the same time the AK one pulls NW which temporarily allows enough cold to dump into the conus between the two features to make things interesting if we can time something up. Assuming the relax even happens. It’s tenuous. Shift both of those 2 features slightly and it becomes more of the same with no cold at all. 

Yeah I have made several posts about how fragile these potentially "good looks" are. It is what it is. Maybe we(some) will get lucky.

[CAPE]

The look at the end of the EPS run features yet another transient cold/dry shot behind a cutter, with a trough about to dig out west downstream of the biggest thorn in our side this winter. Rinse and repeat. We are seriously stuck lol.

[psuhoffman]

@C.A.P.E. ok this all depends on this progression being right. And I’m skeptical but right now all 3 majors show this so it at least can’t be totally ruled out. 

I actually liked the 12z eps. 

Starts out showing our basic crap look from all winter.  Everything locked up top...

this opening in the mid range sets up an opportunity if it’s real...

So it won’t be true arctic air. It’s air that originated over AK (but it’s been building cold there) that gets released as the vortex relaxes and mixes with the canadien airmass. That makes it above normal there, but only somewhat, and a direct discharge of slightly above normal northern Canada air into the US is cold enough here. It dumps west initially due to the ridge wall...

but after the cutter it will come east combined with another dump of canadien air. Again not frigid but plenty cold enough to support snow if we get lucky. 

It won’t be a long window. The pattern up top is already reloading and about to slam the door shut. That energy out west is our shot. If that  can come across before the cold breaks down we could get one chance. 

yes I know how pathetic it is to be analyzing a series of progressions that need to happen just to give us one moderate level threat 15/20 days away...but that’s literally all we got. I’m trying to focus on the minimal amount of hope in a sea of despair.  

[cbmclean]

51 minutes ago, Ji said:

Awesome

Wow, the 0° is OFF THE COAST south of San Diego.  If this gets any worse it'll be snowing in Tijuana.