February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Kind of confused here. Models were showing our snow chances starting to increase roughly day 9/10 and onward. And after just looking over the GEFS and the EPS that doesn't look like that has really changed. So what are some people worried about? The system that comes before that time period?

You mean like this d11 12 image?

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Kind of confused here. Models were showing our snow chances starting to increase roughly day 9/10 and onward. And after just looking over the GEFS and the EPS that doesn't look like that has really changed. So what are some people worried about? The system that comes before that time period?

Probably my post yesterday saying I had a morbid interest in next week. That must have done it. lol.

The GEFS did look pretty good for a couple runs. For the record, I am no longer morbidly interested. 

Otherwise, yeah things never looked very promising until the end of the month- IF the advertised pattern change is real.

[stormtracker]

It's been a while since we've had constant snake eyes at 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z.   And for days.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

You mean like this d11 12 image?

Yep, guess it's time to bale when an op run at 11 days shows something counter to what the ensembles have.

[WinterWxLuvr]

18z gfs says don’t worry, things are just the way they have been.

[showmethesnow]

15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Probably my post yesterday saying I had a morbid interest in next week. That must have done it. lol.

The GEFS did look pretty good for a couple runs. For the record, I am no longer morbidly interested. 

Otherwise, yeah things never looked very promising until the end of the month- IF the advertised pattern change is real.

Never really had much interest through that time period especially for MBY. Though I won't lie and say I haven't been keeping an eye on it and still will for the next few days. Little less suppression and you never know.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Impressive!

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I didn't think the runs were that bad...but if what PSU said is true and that the two more likely options are suppressed or cutter...then no, not a particularly good day. But, ya never know...

Something can always beat the odds but the pattern is awful. Raging +AO. AK vortex. Progressive mid latitude flow. Nothing looks right for a snowstorm. Flukes happen but I’m more interested in hopefully getting a real pattern change than chasing day 9 Hail Mary prayer scenarios. 

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Something can always beat the odds but the pattern is awful. Raging +AO. AK vortex. Progressive mid latitude flow. Nothing looks right for a snowstorm. Flukes happen but I’m more interested in hopefully getting a real pattern change than chasing day 9 Hail Mary prayer scenarios. 

When we flip from utter crap to something half decent we rarely immediately get a storm. Maybe a light event but larger storms typically hit in the middle or towards the end of the good period. Assuming we get a good period my thoughts are prob early March for a shot at something decent. And for that reason and the fact that things will be terrible for at least another 10 days (barring a lotto storm) I'm not really interested in much. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When we flip from utter crap to something half decent we rarely immediately get a storm. Maybe a light event but larger storms typically hit in the middle or towards the end of the good period. Assuming we get a good period my thoughts are prob early March for a shot at something decent. And for that reason and the fact that things will be terrible for at least another 10 days (barring a lotto storm) I'm not really interested in much. 

I agree. Im skeptical the better pattern is even real though. We will see. 

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Something can always beat the odds but the pattern is awful. Raging +AO. AK vortex. Progressive mid latitude flow. Nothing looks right for a snowstorm. Flukes happen but I’m more interested in hopefully getting a real pattern change than chasing day 9 Hail Mary prayer scenarios. 

I am far from convinced we are going to see a significantly better look up top going forward, other than something very transient like we have seen from time to time. If the recent MJO forecasts are reasonable, maybe we can get a less hostile Pacific over the coming weeks. Latest GEFS runs seem to be leaning a bit more towards the GEPS look in the LR, which is still crappy in the HL, but not awful overall with a somewhat less hostile Pacific. Generally it's a very fragile looking and ambiguous pattern as advertised on the means currently, imo. Difficult to figure just how it might evolve(if at all), but we will probably know in a few days whether the pattern is actually moving towards something different or not.

[Bob Chill]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree. Im skeptical the better pattern is even real though. We will see. 

It's nice to see and far better than a repetitive -pna +nao storm track. Geps finally dropped the western trough. If this was happening in the early season I would be stoked but after an incessant kidney punching disaster for basically all of met winter... I'll (all of us) remain skeptical. 

[Amped]

4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Impressive!

That's what 1888 must have looked like just 100 miles further south.

[Ji]

The gfs died tonight..... just like this winter

[Solution Man]

GFS has given up on us also...just like Winter

[Deer Whisperer]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

The gfs died tonight..... just like this winter

 

15 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

GFS has given up on us also...just like Winter

The sigh of depressed weenies everywhere. Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Someone posted this on Twitter:

[Solution Man]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Someone posted this on Twitter:

GFS is constipated from all the cutters

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Perhaps those bottles helped a bit at 150

It must have...brought the precip further north...lol (looks more like it's ensemble members at 18z)

[Solution Man]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It must have...brought the precip further north...lol (looks more like it's ensemble members at 18z)

Agree, let's see what tomorrow brings 

[showmethesnow]

Overnight GEFS pretty much showed what we don't want to see as we move into our possible favorable period. Below are the run over run changes that we saw and you can see that it became aggressive with dumping energy into the SW. Thus we see the response of the ridging going to town in the east.

 

Now for comparison sake here was the previous run. Here we see a split flow in the West (circle) creating basically a northern +PNA over-cutting a weakness (trough) in the SW. That's a good look for possibilities in the east. As you can see the SS dips in the west and we see it creating ridging to its east. But this ridging is muted and shifted to the west (good look for possibly pumping southern moisture into any developing system). The differences we are seeing with that ridging can be attributed to what we see with the NS. The NS in the below example is for the most part bypassing the SW weakness and moving eastward (follow the flow lines) creating push back to any ridging as it carves out the trough in the East. Now if you compare that to the above example we are seeing the NS (follow the flow lines) is more aggressive with the SW dump creating a full latitude trough. In response we are seeing full latitude ridging in the east. 

 

Now the first look just isn't a winning looking. It just isn't. Sure we could always luck into something. But it would be highly doubtful. Now we really need to see the NS for the most part bypass the SW. Otherwise we would be highly dependent on seeing very strong blocking up top to counter and push back against the desire for the pattern to pump up strong heights/ridging in the east. 

Now the models have been teasing back and forth with what they want to do as far as dumping energy in the SW. This just happened to be a run that went to the Dark Side. Who's to say that it won't flip right back come the 06Z run. So at this point I am not overly concerned. But if we start seeing this dump run after run on the various models....

[CAPE]

Remember the PNA ridge? I pointed this out the other day on both the GEFS and GEPS- although they both were attempting to build a +PNA on the means, the tendency for h5 heights to quickly build back further west was also notable. Well, look at the latest runs. This should hardly come as a shock lol. I am not a believer in the HL region becoming favorable and mitigating the crappy Pacific. The +AO/NAO has been very stable, and although it may relax a bit, not sure it will be enough to make a meaningful difference. The most notable ridging "up top" on the GEFS in the LR is over central Canada/Hudson Bay. Been there this winter.

[showmethesnow]

For some reason WB doesn't have the overnight Euro suite so I am limited on what I can see with Tropical tidbits up to 240 hr (not worth searching elsewhere for things that are happening in the extended). But there is one thing I would like to throw up. I know the other knowledgeable posters have been looking at a later time frame for the possibility of our snow chances to start increasing whereas I have been siding on the possibility of sooner scenario (day 8/9). I just want to show you why I am thinking maybe sooner.

The overnight Euro actually was fairly close to a East Coast storm. Now if you look at the black lines this is what the run showed. A positively tilted trough running through our region with surface low pressure off the Florida and SE coasts. But note the NS energy dropping down through the northern lakes. This is basically pooching the possibilities. But lets look at the red lines. If we see that NS take a deeper drop what happens is it will help promote the turning of the trough. We would see the trough going negative tilt as it pulled through the region. The surface should respond accordingly pulling the surface low farther northward with a more northerly track. Now  this isn't just a rogue run because we have seen the ensembles suggesting the possibilities for several days now. 

eta: Right now I would probably favor southern/coastal portions of our region vs. northern/western if anything were to possibly become of this. And of course we have to be mindful of temps as well.

[showmethesnow]

15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Remember the PNA ridge? I pointed this out the other day on both the GEFS and GEPS- although they both were attempting to build a +PNA on the means, the tendency for h5 heights to quickly build back further west was also notable. Well, look at the latest runs. This should hardly come as a shock lol. I am not a believer in the HL region becoming favorable and mitigating the crappy Pacific. The +AO/NAO has been very stable, and although it may relax a bit, not sure it will be enough to make a meaningful difference. The most notable ridging "up top" on the GEFS in the LR is over central Canada/Hudson Bay. Been there this winter.

Hard to argue with persistence. And God knows this winter has been nothing but persistent, on screwing us that is. But I will remain optimistic until this gets nearer in time and/if it becomes glaringly obvious that this was just another Lucy pulled by the models. After all someone has to put on a cheery face with all the doom and gloom that has pervaded these boards this winter. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Hard to argue with persistence. And God knows this winter has been nothing but persistent, on screwing us that is. But I will remain optimistic until this gets nearer in time and/if it becomes glaringly obvious that this was just another Lucy pulled by the models. After all someone has to put on a cheery face with all the doom and gloom that has pervaded these boards this winter. 

I am just calling it as I see it. As of now, the possible "different" pattern the guidance has been hinting at is looking a little more questionable. I shall remain interested until I'm not lol.

For now, we just cant know. Time will tell. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6z GFS.  Totally different from OZ  two weeks out.  Stay tuned...models are all over the place right now in the plus Day 7 range.  Keep emotions in check and realize only God knows what late February into mid March will bring.

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Remember the PNA ridge? I pointed this out the other day on both the GEFS and GEPS- although they both were attempting to build a +PNA on the means, the tendency for h5 heights to quickly build back further west was also notable. Well, look at the latest runs. This should hardly come as a shock lol. I am not a believer in the HL region becoming favorable and mitigating the crappy Pacific. The +AO/NAO has been very stable, and although it may relax a bit, not sure it will be enough to make a meaningful difference. The most notable ridging "up top" on the GEFS in the LR is over central Canada/Hudson Bay. Been there this winter.

My guess is we will see the MJO forecast today back off with its idea of a charge into 8 on the GEFS.  Yesterday hinted at that idea.  SOI with a stronger neg today at -17...so there's that.

Yeah, if this is another head fake we might just put a fork in it....cant afford  open up March and have to wait another two weeks for things to right themselves.  Bass will be coming out of their slumber by then.

[showmethesnow]

From my previous post:

Now the models have been teasing back and forth with what they want to do as far as dumping energy in the SW. This just happened to be a run that went to the Dark Side. Who's to say that it won't flip right back come the 06Z run. So at this point I am not overly concerned. But if we start seeing this dump run after run on the various models....

___________________________________________

And just like that we saw the 06Z GEFS flip back. As you can see we are now seeing run over run height builds in the west from the previous run. Circled region is the energy rotating down through the NS and for the most part it is bypassing the SW weakness. Hence we aren't seeing the height builds/ridging we saw on the previous run two maps below.

 

 

Besides keeping an eye on the HL blocking this is probably the one other feature (NS dump vs no or partial dump) we really need to keep an eye. If we can get this right with decent blocking over-top as well. then the eastern PAC and the general wavelengths through the CONUS should fall in line. Doesn't necessarily guarantee snow but it would go a long way towards helping us to see it.

[showmethesnow]

Saw a decent bump up of snow through the 16 days on the GEFS especially through VA. Interestingly enough it is now showing some interest on both the period that @C.A.P.E. morbidly was fascinated in (roughly day 6/7) and the period I mentioned above (roughly day 8/9).

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Saw a decent bump up of snow through the 16 days on the GEFS especially through VA. Interestingly enough it is now showing some interest on both the period that @C.A.P.E. morbidly was fascinated in (roughly day 6/7) and the period I mentioned above (roughly day 8/9).

I think that one is fading fast, but not completely dead. Probably the very end of the month is the next window, although the 0z EPS, which finally rolled out on WB, implies a cutter on the 27th. That would be a shocker.