showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I wasn't trying to...was just asking hypothetically if we were to see something like that, would it be a good thing or a bad thing--not whether it would actually happening or not. I see the snark game is high today...lol I really wouldn't want to extrapolate it because it is to close to call IMO. Probably just enough to know that it did show a possibility. Might very well be a mute point because I have my doubts we see that SW eject so quickly anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I really wouldn't want to extrapolate it because it is to close to call IMO. Probably just enough to know that it did show a possibility. Might very well be a mute point because I have my doubts we see that SW eject so quickly anyway. I see. Now what was it that last night's EURO did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I see. Now what was it last night's EURO did? First I really looked at the Euro besides some cursory glances. Normally don't dig deep on op runs at range. But yeah the Euro does eject it quicker as well but its evolution afterwards is different. It drives the energy into the deep south and initially shears the hell out of it before it is resurrected once again. Really, about the only thing I am keying on at this point is seeing the models throwing out the blocking over top and sprinkling closed lows throughout their runs. Not going to worry about details until we can get this period of time somewhat in range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: well yea...because with such a positive AO and progressive flow... to get cold in here we are likely in the suppressive flow behind a wave and that would act to discourage a STJ wave from ejecting. Once the next wave does come...the return flow ahead of it is likely to warm us up long before it arrives. We need a change in the longwave pattern to offer resistance to the natural attempt at ridging ahead of any healthy wave. Guidance is hinting maybe we get that change in the long range though. That's why I said it had the right idea lol. I am not expecting some perfectly timed wave to deliver, just as the NS is in the process of lifting out. I mean, it's not impossible, and we have seen some recent runs suggest it, although the likelihood of it being weak and or suppressed would be high. Until there is something notably different with the pattern, I would expect the same results. Hopefully we see some of those changes right around the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: That's why I said it had the right idea lol. I am not expecting some perfectly timed wave to deliver, just as the NS is in the process of lifting out. I mean, it's not impossible, and we have seen some recent runs suggest it, although the likelihood of it being weak and or suppressed would be high. Until there is something notably different with the pattern, I would expect the same results. Hopefully we see some of those changes right around the end of the month. yea I am more interested in the longwave pattern change on guidance than any specific threat ATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yea I am more interested in the longwave pattern change on guidance than any specific threat ATT This is probably the period to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is probably the period to watch. At the range we are looking at all i care about is seeing the idea of the jet cutting under the ridging in Canada progressing forward in time. If we do end up getting that look...especially in late Feb and March that is a decent pattern and we would have some threats to track. Then we would need to just get lucky with the specifics. So far that idea is moving closer in time and the mjo progression kind of supports. No rug pull yet. But it is still outside the credible range for another few days. All we can do is watch and hope no signs of collapse show up. This is likely our last shot to get a meaningful better look this season before it really is too late to do us much good. At least for most in this region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Not a total rarity but the that op image above at least looks very similar to the 12 GEFS. The change up top starts its evolution by D10-11....would be great to see this continue to move forward in time. So far so good...cant help but be gun shy tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 I will continue the positive vibes by pointing out the day 8 and 11 h5 analogs today contain quite a few February periods that lead to snowfall here either in Late Feb or March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I will continue the positive vibes by pointing out the day 8 and 11 h5 analogs today contain quite a few February periods that lead to snowfall here either in Late Feb or March. What late Feb snows (that is, after the 22nd or so) has this look led to in the past? Couldn't have been any in the corridor...I don't know of any that were above an inch or two. That's why I always write off the last 5-7 days of Feb every year because it's pretty much a null-zone historically.) Now I know the first week of March probably has some hits in there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I will continue the positive vibes by pointing out the day 8 and 11 h5 analogs today contain quite a few February periods that lead to snowfall here either in Late Feb or March. #March93jb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 this is my 10th time this winter waiting for day 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: this is my 10th time this winter waiting for day 10 I'd much rather have something to track 10 days out, than to have to wait 10 days just to have a chance at tracking something ANOTHER 10 days out from there. Mercy...I'd much rather something come from THIS Day 8-11. (And as I stated above, my own historical bias for not believing in end of February snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I will continue the positive vibes by pointing out the day 8 and 11 h5 analogs today contain quite a few February periods that lead to snowfall here either in Late Feb or March. Euro might show something here at day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'd much rather have something to track 10 days out, than to have to wait 10 days just to have a chance at tracking something ANOTHER 10 days out from there. Mercy...I'd much rather something come from THIS Day 8-11. (And as I stated above, my own historical bias for not believing in end of February snow) Well, I can totally get that, when looking at what appear to be "dead zones" of snow events in the climatological record. It's an interesting phenomenon, not sure how much of that is "luck". Then again, we supposedly had no real events the middle 2 weeks of January either, historically speaking. Then 2016 happened... (ETA: I seem to recall some end of February events, even in the metro DC/Balt regions. Feb. 25, 2007...a 5-6" pasting that originally was supposed to be ice and rain. And in 2003, around that same date (25th, there about??), we got a decent event, a couple weeks after PD-II). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro might show something here at day 8 Yes it did snow on the coast of the Carolina's 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro might show something here at day 8 It does. Partly cloudy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What late Feb snows (that is, after the 22nd or so) has this look led to in the past? Couldn't have been any in the corridor...I don't know of any that were above an inch or two. That's why I always write off the last 5-7 days of Feb every year because it's pretty much a null-zone historically.) Now I know the first week of March probably has some hits in there... 1964, 1996, 2005 all showed up in the analogs and all featured some snow in our area in late February. 1976 is actually the best analog in the group because it matches this seasons overall crap pattern very well also, and that year had one big snowstorm in our area in March. I think it was 8" in Baltimore and 12" out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It does. Partly cloudy 1046 high squashes everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 misses to the south day 7-10 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: 2 misses to the south day 7-10 LOL But our awesome friend, the GL Low, is there Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Looking at the 12Z guidance, if you want to say there are 4 weeks of winter left, toss next week, and hope a specific threat emerges as we approach the end of the next work week as the pattern under goes some changes. Whether it is too little, too late...EURO still has the coastal for next weekend, albeit off the coast. WB EURO for next Sat : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, yoda said: But our awesome friend, the GL Low, is there Day 10 That is so that the storm that will turn up the coast day 11 will be rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Snow on OBX beaches before we get one would be the cherry on top for us this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 I love that the euro shows 2 misses to the south. Tells me that maybe things are changing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I love that the euro shows 2 misses to the south. Tells me that maybe things are changing. were not getting snow so nothing is changing 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: were not getting snow so nothing is changing Dude...it's not showing a cutter. So let's just take that little blessing for now, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That is so that the storm that will turn up the coast day 11 will be rain Man the Great Lakes are becoming my least favorite place on the continent, seriously...I'd avoid visiting up there out of sheer protest of it them being our snow enemy, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 WB 12Z EPS ....this picture sums up our winter perfectly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS ....this picture sums up our winter perfectly. Only place with less snow is the Gulf coast. I hope that wave juices up a bit to give the Carolinas a decent event. It really is a weak POS as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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