showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We need to get our priorities in order here. So much focus on a piddly snow tv system this weekend which probably wont pan out and not enough focus on Day 10+ What could possibly go wrong? Think I have hit desperation mode. Op run where 90% of the snow comes after 12+ days, on the GFS no less, and yet I am all in. Let's reel this sucker in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Scraff said: Someone needs to fire up the bus. Wait. Should we be in “storm mode”? nope. no storm mode needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 12Z 12K NAM still showing freezing rain for overnight Wed./early Th. If the global models start to show this, someone should open a thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 ICON is much better at 500mb for the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 ICON much more amped leading into Sunday. But it’s the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON is much better at 500mb for the weekend. We posted simultaneously lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON much more amped leading into Sunday. But it’s the ICON It's a good shortwave. It's looked good from afar and now we're getting kinda close and still looks good. Temps are the obvious red flag but if I lived in your area I wouldn't be as worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a good shortwave. It's looked good from afar and now we're getting kinda close and still looks good. Temps are the obvious red flag but if I lived in your area I wouldn't be as worried. go on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Icon looks decent, pretty much all snow for Baltimore but rates are not terribly impressive. Still, considering how reluctant the Icon is to show anything good for us I’m cautiously optimistic. Very scientific, I know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: go on... In any "normal" winter, a vort pass like this would easily drop 1-3/2-4 or even 3-6 if it juices in the short range (common). Problem is we can buy a single "normal" airmass at all this year. My early guess is someone gets 3" out of the deal and it won't be my yard. Western VA appears to be the favored location. Up along the MD line it's getting on the fringes of best lift/dynamics but will that trend for the better? Yea, probably. Can my yard get several hours of good snow and not record a half inch? Yea, probably that too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In any "normal" winter, a vort pass like this would easily drop 1-3/2-4 or even 3-6 if it juices in the short range (common). Problem is we can buy a single "normal" airmass at all this year. My early guess is someone gets 3" out of the deal and it won't be my yard. Western VA appears to be the favored location. Up along the MD line it's getting on the fringes of best lift/dynamics but will that trend for the better? Yea, probably. Can my yard get several hours of good snow and not record a half inch? Yea, probably that too. Its for this alone I don't hold much hope around Fredericksburg. Snow TV/White Rain yes, but with the airmasses we've had, anything more than that feel like a pipe dream unless things change (here's to hoping) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In any "normal" winter, a vort pass like this would easily drop 1-3/2-4 or even 3-6 if it juices in the short range (common). Problem is we can buy a single "normal" airmass at all this year. My early guess is someone gets 3" out of the deal and it won't be my yard. Western VA appears to be the favored location. Up along the MD line it's getting on the fringes of best lift/dynamics but will that trend for the better? Yea, probably. Can my yard get several hours of good snow and not record a half inch? Yea, probably that too. This. Because of the exceedingly fast flow all winter any cold air has been quick to leave. There just isn't much left to work with so a normally good vort pass then has to do double duty to make cold air wrap in. And the areas that are climo favored are really the only ones who can get something. Two previous storms with similar tracks and crap air was not good for lots of places E of the Blue Ridge and around I-95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: This. Because of the exceedingly fast flow all winter any cold air has been quick to leave. There just isn't much left to work with so a normally good vort pass then has to do double duty to make cold air wrap in. And the areas that are climo favored are really the only ones who can get something. Two previous storms with similar tracks and crap air was not good for lots of places E of the Blue Ridge and around I-95 We are in a sucky position around these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON is much better at 500mb for the weekend. Meanwhile GFS is slightly less ampd and farther vs 6z. I hate this model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 GFS is obviously weaker/sheared but at d4+ that doesn't matter as much as the shortwave remains viable. Another run showing that. Good enough for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Meanwhile GFS is slightly less ampd and farther vs 6z. I hate this model. I'm conflicted... These types of shortwaves are absolute bread and butter here. It's one of the most common ways we get a modest snowfall. So for that reason I'm getting sucked in. But then when I mentally review this season since Dec 1st I get that sinking feeling that even with a bread and butter shortwave my yard is still kinda F'd. Smell what I'm steppin in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm conflicted... These types of shortwaves are absolute bread and butter here. It's one of the most common ways we get a modest snowfall. So for that reason I'm getting sucked in. But then when I mentally review this season since Dec 1st I get that sinking feeling that even with a bread and butter shortwave my yard is still kinda F'd. Smell what I'm steppin in? Yeah, I'm a bit more pessimistic and gun shy than usual. My rule is when there is too much to worry about, it's prob not going to work out. This year, it's amplified times 10....unlike that s/w on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm conflicted... These types of shortwaves are absolute bread and butter here. It's one of the most common ways we get a modest snowfall. So for that reason I'm getting sucked in. But then when I mentally review this season since Dec 1st I get that sinking feeling that even with a bread and butter shortwave my yard is still kinda F'd. Smell what I'm steppin in? If we can't even get a little shortwave like this to work...C'MON!!!! That would road salt in the wound (or perhaps bread and melted butter, smh). It's gonna be really frustrating if this were to also trend warmer like everything else has this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm a bit more pessimistic and gun shy than usual. My rule is when there is too much to worry about, it's prob not going to work out. This year, it's amplified times 10....unlike that s/w on the GFS. And really, in this scenario, would there really be that much to worry about? You'd think this setup would be simpler than anything else we've had... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Meanwhile GFS is slightly less ampd and farther vs 6z. I hate this model. I swear the GFS has it out for us this year...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 So the Euro finally gives in and shows snow and it will be wrong?! I guess we’ll see in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And really, in this scenario, would there really be that much to worry about? You'd think this setup would be simpler than anything else we've had... Other than the distinct possibility of it being a weak sauce, progressive sw, marginal, fleeting cold, and it tracking too far north, nothing to worry about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z GFS is just a depressing beatdown of misery. Sorry for the rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm a bit more pessimistic and gun shy than usual. My rule is when there is too much to worry about, it's prob not going to work out. This year, it's amplified times 10....unlike that s/w on the GFS. Yea, I hate being mentally conditioned to fail. That's what made me step back last week. The upcoming period in general has a fatal flaw so I'm hanging onto the weekend shortwave because it's the only thing promising. Beyond that people need to not ignore the fact that longwave patterns act like rubber bands so as long as the troughs keep dropping in the west the height rises or north trend in the east can't be offset. The only thing that can offset a -PNA is blocking. Considering we have nearly record breaking unblocking there is no way I'll believe a long range prog showing snow on a gradient wave. Even PA/NY will struggle at times with this set of features. MD doesn't work with 2 strikes against like 90% of the time and that's what we have in the upper levels... at least 2 strikes against... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 The middle of next week seems very interesting to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 What does the euro show for the weekend? Let your thinking stop there because no other model has been very impressive very much all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 As indicated weekend low still there, but not as strong this run. WB 12Z GFS for weekend., 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: As indicated weekend low still there, but not as strong this run. WB 12Z GFS for weekend., I always hate to see us on the southern fringe of snowfall maps, but I hate it a lot more when you are just looking at this kind of a pattern because it seems like it's so easy for the waves to trend north in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What does the euro show for the weekend? Let your thinking stop there because no other model has been very impressive very much all winter. Still there...see my 6z EPS post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 feels like Tuesday is a tad early to bail even though the year has been pretty dreadful. If the Euro starts to leak oil today then yeah...but until then I say the GFS hasn't had a grasp all winter from this distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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