CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 At least HH delivered a little. Hard to ask for more in this dismal winter as we near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: No, it wont. It will be a day or so later and it will cut. That thing will be cutting tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Awful gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Feb 30 storm incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Ggem almost gets it done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Ggem almost gets it done Twice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Cape will like the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Hey I think I can take the EURO...Now shows suppression to the south a la the Canadian (but later). Thought it was intriguing that both EURO and GEM also tried to have a low off the coast at hour 240. Now of course hour 240 and may be a fantasy quirk, but just odd. Now I'll let the more experience met minds weigh in on what can or can't work, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 WB 0Z EURO at fantasy range Day10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 WB 0z EPS Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 WB 0z EPS Day 10...0nly 10-20 percent of Members. It will be interesting to see what 12Z holds but not ready to be suckered in again yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey I think I can take the EURO...Now shows suppression to the south a la the Canadian (but later). Thought it was intriguing that both EURO and GEM also tried to have a low off the coast at hour 240. Now of course hour 240 and may be a fantasy quirk, but just odd. Now I'll let the more experience met minds weigh in on what can or can't work, lol Just another op run at range but yeah it is nice to see cutoffs popping up on the east coast on the various runs. Euro actually has it cutting off and going negative tilt in a very good location for our region. Just missing in this case but we are parsing details at day 9/10. I would have really liked to have seen how the model handled the next 24 hours with that short wave dropping down behind it though. That could have been very interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 4 hours ago, Ji said: Cape will like the gefs Cool, only 15 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Dare I say it? I actually have some glimmers of optimism now sprouting up for the possibility of a late save to this winter. Might be too much to ask for an outcome close to our seasonal averages but maybe totals much closer to them then where we currently sit? But we have been down this road before so let's sit tight and see where things go. The models these last few days have made a strong move to a very workable look for us and it deals with what we are seeing particularly in the NAO domain and stretching down through Canada. If we can get some blocking there that can potentially offset a hostile PAC. If we can get a somewhat cooperative PAC then things could get interesting. Euro has been leading the pack as far as the blocking up top (always nice to have the King in your corner) and now we see the GEFS has potentially caved. Went from a +++++NAO just on yesterday's 00Z run to a neutral or even slightly negative -NAO over the last day of runs. GEPS is still showing a ++NAO but even with that there are strong indications that is caving as well. Now to a little lesser extent what we are seeing with the PAC as well as in the Western CONUS will also play into this. And even there we have seen incremental improvements over the last few days as well. GEFS is leading the pack in this regards. Moves to a really nice look in regards to the EPO, northern based PNA with a weakness under cutting and the extension of the pv migrating towards the Aleutians. Both the EPS and the GEPS have a good look as well but fall short of what we see on the GEFS as they are not as aggressive with the magnitude of the ridging and are generally slightly displaced westward. The one thing I really like that I am seeing on all three models is that we are not talking a static +PNA that is just sitting there doing its own thing. What we are seeing a pulsing PNA that is spiking every couple/few days and then waning. To me this is indicative of an active period of time with lows moving eastward and then amplifying in the East. Now where that amplification occurs is the hangup as I am sure most have taken note that that has been occurring mostly to our west this winter. That is hopefully where the blocking over top comes into play and forces the storm track eastward into a favorable locale for our region. There is one word of caution though, we do not want to see a strong dump of energy into the SW of which the models have been on again, off again over the last few days. We see that and we will be solely dependent on the blocking over top. Read into that statement, we will probably need timing and luck to score. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 6z GFS verbatim is meh first 10 days but appears there is more cold air to work starting later in the period. Hopefully, the 10 plus fantasy range will work out this time. We have about a month left to track. Latest big snow storm that I can remember in my lifetime in mid March is 1993. There have been a few nice snow storms up to mid March so chin up and eyes open folks. Good day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Is the fun just starting? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Is the fun just starting? Let’s see if this look is still there in a week. Fingers crossed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Is the fun just starting? No, there is no fun here. How many times this winter have we seen a something out in fantasy land that gets the board chirping only to see it disappear a couple of runs later. When I say disappear, I mean a complete 180 from one run to the next. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 37 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The Euro control run from day 9 to 15 is pretty interesting. Another window between the 20th and 29th. The last hurrah....hopefully. Most of us here are ready to move on to spring. That in itself sure guarantee some fluke snows and prolonged BN temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: No, there is no fun here. How many times this winter have we seen a something out in fantasy land that gets the board chirping only to see it disappear a couple of runs later. When I say disappear, I mean a complete 180 from one run to the next. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 33 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: There is one word of caution though, we do not want to see a strong dump of energy into the SW. We haven't seen that happen at all this winter when the LR showed workable looks have we? Your one word of caution in all of your posts have been the final word most of the time. Nailed it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 WB 6Z Fantasy range GEFS. The dreaded AK vortex starts to lift out after Day 10 or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Let’s see if this look is still there in a week. Fingers crossed. I really wouldn't concern myself with the storm/timing it shows at this time. What is noteworthy about this frame is that it is just another example off the models starting to latch onto the idea of good blocking and lows being forced underneath and cutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Another window between the 20th and 29th. The last hurrah....hopefully. Most of us here are ready to move on to spring. That in itself sure guarantee some fluke snows and prolonged BN temps. Let's see where we sit in a week or so but I am getting the impression the models are starting to favor blocking up top and troughing in the east into March. And all sun angle arguments and melting blacktop aside most of our region can realistically expect seeing snow into mid March, possibly large amounts of it. Not saying that is the case here though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 34 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Let’s see if this look is still there in a week. Fingers crossed. Gonna go out on a limb here and say that look will begin to dampen out and blocking wont be as strong hence energy probably heads right over us as opposed to our South....congrats upstate PA into New England....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: It's going to get fun around here...you can bet your Monopoly money on it . Seeing as I lost the house on my last gambling excursion that is about all I have. Now if I can just figure out where I left the game. Oh... that's right. I sold it for my housing. Who knew cardboard boxes could be so expensive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Maybe the usual warm season -NAO will develop a little earlier this year- when it might actually be useful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Gonna go out on a limb here and say that look will begin to dampen out and blocking wont be as strong hence energy probably heads right over us as opposed to our South....congrats upstate PA into New England....again. Maybe, maybe not. Models have a different feel then what we have seen all winter. Either way I have a plan B in place just in case. Going to take a 3/4 day gambling excursion for my B-Day sometime in the next 3 weeks or so. Depending on timing and where my best chances are will dictate where and when I take this trip. Right now I am waffling between the northern Poconos or Western MD. But seeing as I am starting to get a sneaky suspicion someone is going to get hammered in the next couple of weeks I might go a little bit farther afield to catch the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cool, only 15 days out. Seen this before? lol Hard to buy into anything more than a transient NA ridge until we see persistence on the guidance in near real time. We have seen this several times on long range guidance this winter, and it disappears. Of note, the GEPS still likes the blue up top in the LR, and a western trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 53 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Seeing as I lost the house on my last gambling excursion that is about all I have. Now if I can just figure out where I left the game. Oh... that's right. I sold it for my housing. Who knew cardboard boxes could be so expensive. Heh! I was just about to say, maybe we could throw in some of your chips from Vegas along with the Monopoly money...if you walked out of there with any remaining, that is!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now