psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: But it did go back to dumping fairly aggressively into the SW at the end of the extended. Had been moving away from that so I was somewhat disappointed to see that. Yea that’s why I said it looks ok not good. Lol. But we absolutely need to get some changes up top to have any chance. And analogs suggest the pac is a lost cause. We need some NAO help. The fact the eps went that way was more good than bad regardless of the western dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: wave breaking on the Atlantic side Anyone able to give a quick explanation of what a "wave breaking" is? Seen it mentioned several times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Anyone able to give a quick explanation of what a "wave breaking" is? Seen it mentioned several times this winter. Planetary waves (Rossby waves) break when they gain enough amplitude that their potential vorticity gradient is overturned. This leads to mixing of their pv. When it happens in a favorable way it can aid in the transport of heat into the HL and weaken or displace the tpv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Planetary waves (Rossby waves) break when they gain enough amplitude that their potential vorticity gradient is overturned. This leads to mixing of their pv. When it happens in a favorable way it can aid in the transport of heat into the HL and weaken or displace the tpv. Speaking of which, might be seeing just the beginning of a bit of warming from the Atlantic side at the end of the Euro op run today. 50 mb is as low as we have on WB, but might be fairly indicative of whats happening in the upper troposphere. It is becoming more elongated/tilted here than the previous panels. Still, look at that beast. What an absolute monster the PV has been this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Speaking of which, might be seeing just the beginning of a bit of warming from the Atlantic side at the end of the Euro op run today. 50 mb is as low as we have on WB, but might be fairly indicative of whats happening in the upper troposphere. It is becoming more elongated/tilted here than the previous panels. Still, look at that beast. What an absolute monster the PV has been this winter. Does the +++++AO (yuck...gotta wash my mouth out with soap) correlate to the strong PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Does the +++++AO correlate to the strong PV? Absolutely. We want to see multiple weak little baby vortices scattered about, not one consolidated blob of purple doom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Does the +++++AO (yuck...gotta wash my mouth out with soap) correlate to the strong PV? I think the +++++AO and the strong PV are different names for the same phenomenon. In other words, the AO index is a measure of the strength of the PV. Please someone chime in if I am misinformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Planetary waves (Rossby waves) break when they gain enough amplitude that their potential vorticity gradient is overturned. This leads to mixing of their pv. When it happens in a favorable way it can aid in the transport of heat into the HL and weaken or displace the tpv. Thanks! I find this stuff really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I think the +++++AO and the strong PV are different names for the same phenomenon. In other words, the AO index is a measure of the strength of the PV. Please someone chime in if I am misinformed. There is a strong correlation. The AO index actually is a measure of surface pressure near the pole. We want to see higher pressure there. (-AO) The SPV does not always couple to the TPV, but it has this winter. Generally speaking, a strong PV tends to keep the cold air locked up in the HL regions, and outside of a big EPO ridge, it becomes very difficult to get legit cold air delivery into the mid-latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: There is a strong correlation. The AO index actually is a measure of surface pressure near the pole.We want to see higher pressure there. (-AO) The SPV does not always couple to the TPV, but it has this winter. Generally speaking, a strong PV tends to keep the cold air locked up in the HL regions, and outside of a big EPO ridge, it becomes very difficult to get legit cold air delivery into the mid-latitudes. CPC page gives this definition. I am trying to make heads or tails of it. " The daily AO index is constructed by projecting the daily (00Z) 1000mb height anomalies poleward of 20°N onto the loading pattern of the AO. " So I understand the concept of geopotential height anomaly, although I am not used to see it at 1000 MB. What does it mean to "project it on the loading pattern". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I had a feeling it was headed there looking at the 0z run. It has not been as enthusiastic about building a PNA ridge- it flirts with neutral then wants to build heights further west again. GEFS and at times the GEPS seem to like the idea of a more favorable western ridge position. Maybe the EPS is on to something and we get a nice HL block for March to counter the crappy Pacific. Enjoy the .01 the eps gives you thru 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: CPC page gives this definition. I am trying to make heads or tails of it. " The daily AO index is constructed by projecting the daily (00Z) 1000mb height anomalies poleward of 20°N onto the loading pattern of the AO. " So I understand the concept of geopotential height anomaly, although I am not used to see it at 1000 MB. What does it mean to "project it on the loading pattern". I think it means based on observations of the surface pressures observed in that area over a specific period of time, in order to arrive at a mean. eta- I think I am pretty close. This is from the CPC: The loading pattern of the AO is defined as the leading mode of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of monthly mean 1000mb height during 1979-2000 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Absolutely. We want to see multiple little baby vortices scattered about, not one consolidated blob of purple doom. Random thought but curious if there’s any relationship between a strong PV and annual sea ice extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Gfs crushes....West Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Another weenie run for El Paso and Mexico. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Another weenie run for El Paso and Mexico. Ya its not snowing this year... I mean its not even close. I shut down my winter Facebook page last week and told everyone to have a nice summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 The storm finally arrives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ji said: The storm finally arrives! IDK. That look sort of has my interest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 35 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Random thought but curious if there’s any relationship between a strong PV and annual sea ice extent. Yes. See now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 38 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Another weenie run for El Paso and Mexico. El Paso is now a snow town. Sure why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 18z GEFS kinda likes late next week. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 18z GEFS kinda likes late next week. I like that look alot with hits south. We need the south hits look to hold for a while with the inevitable north trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 ^ It's more inevitable than ever this winter, in this pattern. Ofc, it may be shifting just a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 18z GEFS kinda likes late next week. Fringed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 18z GEFS kinda likes late next week. That’s a pretty weenie run for this far out given what we’ve seen this winter. I’m gonna go down sinking with this ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Fringed If this is even close to reality, you are golden, and most of the rest of us are fighting for our frozen lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: That’s a pretty weenie run for this far out given what we’ve seen this winter. I’m gonna go down sinking with this ship. Agree. It is the GFS/GEFS though. I started getting an oddly "good" feeling about this after the 6z run this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Agree. It is the GFS/GEFS though. I started getting an oddly "good" feeling about this after the 6z run this morning.Agreed. I hopped on this train yesterday... something about this one seems right for some reason. No idea why. I was hoping the 12z EPS would’ve been good enough to share today, but it wasn’t. Like two good storms in the whole suite. Had a bit of a southern max though, which is always nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: If this is even close to reality, you are golden, and most of the rest of us are fighting for our frozen lives. It’s waaaaaay too far out to be worried about anything specific. It likely won’t look anything like that by the time it’s close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: It’s waaaaaay too far out to be worried about anything specific. It likely won’t look anything like that by the time it’s close. No, it wont. It will be a day or so later and it will cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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