stormtracker Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Kinda too busy at work to look but my seductive skills tell me that the GFS musta looked great! Go back into hibernation. Trust me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Go back into hibernation. Trust me. Ji's groundhog saw the MJO phase plots...we get 6 more weeks in phase 6! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 GEFS for 12z jumped up fairly significantly in its average for the next 10 days (about 1.5" across the board) I still kinda like next Friday/Saturday just from a gut feeling potential. Quite the array of solutions here, enough to get me looking at WxBell every once in awhile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 5 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: Didn't PSU say with everything out of whack, either its a sheared out southern slider or a cutter? When the only time you can get cold air is right behind a wave and there is no blocking to resist any return flow ahead of the next wave that is the favored result yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 I actually think the gfs starts to look at least plausible in about a week. Youve got a narrow stripe of below normal heights butting up against above normal. Seems to me that might provide an opportunity for a little system to run into some colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I have become morbidly interested in the end of the month period beginning late next week. Probably nothing comes of it, but we are seeing signs of something "different" with the pattern. 12z GEFS Snowfall map for the last 10 days of the month. Not bad. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 42 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Kinda too busy at work to look but my seductive skills tell me that the GFS musta looked great! It had initialization errors and errors in the middle and final outcome errors as well. Pretty much broken 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I have become morbidly interested in the end of the month period beginning late next week. Probably nothing comes of it, but we are seeing signs of something "different" with the pattern. 12z GEFS Snowfall map for the last 10 days of the month. Not bad. Never took you for the masochistic type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Never took you for the masochistic type. Yeah, thus the morbid part. The pattern has been a train wreck, and will likely continue to be. It's gettin' late though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 42 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I have become morbidly interested in the end of the month period beginning late next week. Probably nothing comes of it, but we are seeing signs of something "different" with the pattern. 12z GEFS Snowfall map for the last 10 days of the month. Not bad. Morbidly? Is that just a polite way of saying were all sick in the head? Have to agree with your assessment with a different pattern. Looking 10+ day has a different feel on the models then what we have seen so far this winter. Have been noticing this for a couple of days now on the runs and the overnight sort of cemented it in my mind. Haven't had a chance to check the 12z guidance so if that looks as if it is converting back to the same old crap then this post was never made. Or blame it on Ji hacking into my account. Whichever you prefer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Morbidly? Is that just a polite way of saying were all sick in the head? Have to agree with your assessment with a different pattern. Looking 10+ day has a different feel on the models then what we have seen so far this winter. Have been noticing this for a couple of days now on the runs and the overnight sort of cemented it in my mind. Haven't had a chance to check the 12z guidance so if that looks as if it is converting back to the same old crap then this post was never made. Or blame it on Ji hacking into my account. Whichever you prefer. I have a subtle way of communicating in certain instances. One probably would not expect it from such a bitter man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 euro looks fairly cold but where is the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: euro looks fairly cold but where is the precip lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: euro looks fairly cold but where is the precip Its cold because there is no precip. If there was a storm the return flow ahead of any strong wave would likely mean we warm up given the lack of anything in the flow to offer resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 just another disaster run.....just a different type of disaster. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 26 minutes ago, Ji said: just another disaster run.....just a different type of disaster. There are still other ways to fail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: There are still other ways to fail Something we are great at in the MA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 29 minutes ago, Ji said: just another disaster run.....just a different type of disaster. Euro broke the every other day cutter pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Euro broke the every other day cutter pattern. Eps actually looks ok day 10-15 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Eps actually looks ok day 10-15 Yeah it seems to be attempting to break down the HL ugliness. Have to wait and see on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it seems to be attempting to break down the HL ugliness. Have to wait and see on that. At least it’s doing it in a different way. Several times this year it’s attempted a change up top initiated from the Pac side. But all those analogs I looked at a while ago said if we ever get a better pattern it was more likely to be from wave breaking on the Atlantic side. A few times the guidance teased us with an epo ridge and I was always skeptical because that’s not usually how this pac pattern evolves. The eps is teasing us with changes on the Atlantic side for the first time in a long time. Doesn’t mean it will happen but it’s at least different. Anything different is good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I have actually been saying for a little while that if there is any glimmer of hope (as slim as it may be) to see snow it would happen at the end of February and the beginning of March. The problem is if the models start/continue to show a favorable window it's going to take alot before people start buying into it since we have been burned by the models quite a bit this winter. Some probably won't believe it until it is happening and who can blame them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Eps actually looks ok day 10-15 But it did go back to dumping fairly aggressively into the SW at the end of the extended. Had been moving away from that so I was somewhat disappointed to see that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: But it did go back to dumping fairly aggressively into the SW at the end of the extended. Had been moving away from that so I was somewhat disappointed to see that. I had a feeling it was headed there looking at the 0z run. It has not been as enthusiastic about building a PNA ridge- it flirts with neutral then wants to build heights further west again. GEFS and at times the GEPS seem to like the idea of a more favorable western ridge position. Maybe the EPS is on to something and we get a nice HL block for March to counter the crappy Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 45 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said: Something we are great at in the MA... Well, we haven't failed at failing yet, as far as I know!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I had a feeling it was headed there looking at the 0z run. It has not been as enthusiastic about building a PNA ridge- it flirts with neutral then wants to build heights further west again. GEFS and at times the GEPS seem to like the idea of a more favorable western ridge position. Maybe the EPS is on to something and we get a nice HL block for March to counter the crappy Pacific. Besides that I liked what I saw. Potential is starting to ramp up just beyond day 10 until we see that dump at the end. And like you said, EPS is getting more aggressive with the HL blocking which could potentially offset that dump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Southern Cross lyric on point: Quote So we cheated and we lied and we tested And we never failed to fail, it was the easiest thing to do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Southern Cross lyric on point: Woah, some late CSN in the long range thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Its cold because there is no precip. If there was a storm the return flow ahead of any strong wave would likely mean we warm up given the lack of anything in the flow to offer resistance. At this point I am ok with that. I know its a different story for you guys maybe getting some March love, but down here it's pretty much over for us. Just give me some cold to keep the bugs at bay for a little while. I just hate hate hate those nights right before FROPA where its like 65 and humid at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 39 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: But it did go back to dumping fairly aggressively into the SW at the end of the extended. Had been moving away from that so I was somewhat disappointed to see that. Well that is a known Euro bias, or at least it was in the past. I am still just going under the policy of assuming the actual outcome will be the worst of all modeled outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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