Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 18"+ is a Hecs in my book 2014 is never mentioned with the 79 83 93 96 2003 2010 2016 The sleet and slight warmup before the ULL took some fun away. I know I got 19 and some change. The ULL piece was great. Between 3-4" in my yard with true high ratio large dendrites. Like 15-20:1 similar to the Rockies. We don't get that type of snowfall often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 The sleet and slight warmup before the ULL took some fun away. I know I got 19 and some change. The ULL piece was great. Between 3-4" in my yard with true high ratio large dendrites. Like 15-20:1 similar to the Rockies. We don't get that type of snowfall often. I remember the nam right before gametime tossing us a foot overnight. Nobody model had that but it verified. The sleet part was annoying...I didnt think it would come out to leesburg lol. The ull was amazing but not as good as last year's. 2013-2014 was so fun. That storm was one of our warmer events lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 This looks very similar to what the gfs modeled last week. Congrats indy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ji said: This looks very similar to what the gfs modeled last week. Congrats indy Now wait a minute, we just watched this last week...is the GFS gonna fail the same way two weeks in a row? Lol Now that would be truly pathetic (and it's even the same day of the week! If it indeed plays out like that...somebody is clearly trying to troll us, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 WB EURO.... late next week, shocker, has fizzled. Only a few EPS members still have it. On a slightly positive note, AO and PNA trending in the right directions towards the end of this month...so while February looking horrible maybe we go into March with a chance. Good day everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO.... late next week, shocker, has fizzled. Only a few EPS members still have it. On a slightly positive note, AO and PNA trending in the right directions towards the end of this month...so while February looking horrible maybe we go into March with a chance. Good day everyone. And it appears met winter 19-20 ends like it began. We will never forget this horror show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 WB 6Z GFS 8 days....nice cold high and moisture lurking to the south. Maybe we should not give up yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 31 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS 8 days....nice cold high and moisture lurking to the south. Maybe we should not give up yet. In 6 hours it will be cutting to Chicago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Looking at the runs over night gives the impression that 10+ day is up for grabs as to what to expect moving forward. Seeing some fairly significant differences between all three models (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) when it comes to the N Atl/NAO region and the PAC ridge flexing and PNA spikes. What we are seeing with the PAC ridging is differences in strength and placement as well as timing differences/longevity with when it rolls down stream spiking the PNA. In the N Atl/Nao region we are seeing a +++Nao on the GEPS , a +NAO on the GEFS and surprisingly enough a neutralish look on the EPS as we are seeing some height builds into the western NAO domain. Needless to say these differences are generally playing havoc with the long wave pattern/timing through the CONUS between the different models. However there is one notable exception. We are seeing all the models generally aligning up with a +PNA and a decently placed trough through the 12-14 day period before they once again go their separate ways. If I were a betting man this is probably where I would be placing my money on to score over the next 15 days (Actually don't mind the look on the EPS whatsoever especially if we can see some better height builds or even ridging through the western NAO domain). One last thing I will say, I get the general impression that the models may be keying on troughiness in the East as we move into March. But that may not be worth much as we have all seen how well they have handled the longer ranges this winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 53 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS 8 days....nice cold high and moisture lurking to the south. Maybe we should not give up yet. Didn't PSU say with everything out of whack, either its a sheared out southern slider or a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 How we lookin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS 8 days....nice cold high and moisture lurking to the south. Maybe we should not give up yet. The h5 look on the 6z GEFS is quite a bit different looking than what we were seeing just a couple runs ago for this same period. With this look I could see a wave ejecting and tracking underneath/staying suppressed. All comes down to timing as we know- with nothing to block the flow the cold is fleeting. Other issue is whether the lead piece is weak and strung out, while the main energy holds back. That would just give us another cutter as the high exits stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at the runs over night gives the impression that 10+ day is up for grabs as to what to expect moving forward. Seeing some fairly significant differences between all three models (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) when it comes to the N Atl/NAO region and the PAC ridge flexing and PNA spikes. What we are seeing with the PAC ridging is differences in strength and placement as well as timing differences/longevity with when it rolls down stream spiking the PNA. In the N Atl/Nao region we are seeing a +++Nao on the GEPS , a +NAO on the GEFS and surprisingly enough a neutralish look on the EPS as we are seeing some height builds into the western NAO domain. Needless to say these differences are generally playing havoc with the long wave pattern/timing through the CONUS between the different models. However there is one notable exception. We are seeing all the models generally aligning up with a +PNA and a decently placed trough through the 12-14 day period before they once again go their separate ways. If I were a betting man this is probably where I would be placing my money on to score over the next 15 days (Actually don't mind the look on the EPS whatsoever especially if we can see some better height builds or even ridging through the western NAO domain). One last thing I will say, I get the general impression that the models may be keying on troughiness in the East as we move into March. But that may not be worth much as we have all seen how well they have handled the longer ranges this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How we lookin? Not today...too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Not today...too soon My glass is half full again after looking at the 6z GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The h5 look on the 6z GEFS is quite a bit different looking than what we were seeing just a couple runs ago for this same period. With this look I could see a wave ejecting and tracking underneath/staying suppressed. All comes down to timing as we know- with nothing to block the flow the cold is fleeting. Other issue is whether the lead piece is weak and strung out, while the main energy holds back. That would just give us another cutter as the high exits stage right. Yeah, the one thing that stands out to me both on the GEFS and GEPS is that the SE ridge is not locked in. It pops for a few days and then it gets knocked down for a few days. Just a couple days ago it was a locked in feature for the entirety of each ens run. Agreed about next week. Even the GEPS has a similar look, not as pronounced at H5 for middle of next week. It’s the kind of look where a SW could scrape us if timed nicely. After that we see a trough in the east starting to develop on both GEFS and GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 42 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The h5 look on the 6z GEFS is quite a bit different looking than what we were seeing just a couple runs ago for this same period. With this look I could see a wave ejecting and tracking underneath/staying suppressed. All comes down to timing as we know- with nothing to block the flow the cold is fleeting. Other issue is whether the lead piece is weak and strung out, while the main energy holds back. That would just give us another cutter as the high exits stage right. The 20th of the month has been a colder time for the past several months and this occurs in what some mention as a vacillation of the vortex which according to HM happens in stronger vortex winters. This time of the month coming up may once again have minor interest. The last three times it happened cold ejected Southward but did not time well with moisture. Not sure this time is any different . Speculation on my part maybe the GEFS is wrong and the current NAM state is more hostile than in November, and December and even Jan. So, maybe the cycle does not duplicate near the 20 th. Of note as well is the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Yeah, the one thing that stands out to me both on the GEFS and GEPS is that the SE ridge is not locked in. It pops for a few days and then it gets knocked down for a few days. Just a couple days ago it was a locked in feature for the entirety of each ens run. Agreed about next week. Even the GEPS has a similar look, not as pronounced at H5 for middle of next week. It’s the kind of look where a SW could scrape us if timed nicely. After that we see a trough in the east starting to develop on both GEFS and GEPS. EPS also has lower heights in the east down the line. Biggest difference in the LR is it tries to trend the AO/NAO towards neutral, and doesn't have much ridging out west. Seeing some decent signs across guidance, but ofc we are moving into a period where we generally need even more anomalous cold to get the outcome we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Impressive + NAO and wide ranging warmth across parts of the NH. Meanwhile........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 It certainly appears the hope for a back loaded winter are all but gone. Think we have a warmer March along with Don's ideas ( below ) and I feel the opportunity for any meaningful snowfall in March is very, very low. From Don S. morning post today : << Morning thoughts... While attention has been fixed on the record-setting AO+ regime that saw the AO reach a preliminary all-time record of +6.342, another development that has occurred in the eastern Pacific has increased the probability of a warmer than normal March. That development also suggests that any snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region after February could be limited. ENSO Region 1+2 has warmed dramatically over the past two weeks. During the week centered around January 22, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and for January 2020 it was -0.04°C. During the most recent period (week centered around February 5), that anomaly had risen to +0.8°C. Both the 2/12/2020 0z EPS and GEFS suggest that the AO will return to extremely positive values near or above +4.000 around February 20. In addtion, based on the outcomes following the 1989 and 1990 super AO+ regimes in February and assuming a secondary peak at extremely positive values (+4.000 or above) around February 20 +/- a few days, March will likely begin with a noted absence of blocking in the AO+ region. The evolution of the February AO+ regime would argue that the AO would likely remain positive for much of March. During the 1981-2019 period, there were seven cases where the February ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increased by +0.5° over the January average: 1989, 1991, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2012. Five (71%) of those cases had an AO+ to end February and start March: 1989, 2002, 2008, 2011, and 2012. The March composite 500 mb and temperature anomalies for those five cases are below: Mean March-April snowfall for New York City for those five cases was 0.7" (skewed by 2.5" in March-April, 1989) and 0.5" in Philadelphia (skewed by 2.4" in March-April 1989). > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 MJO is not cooperating with forecasts for about the last week. It is advancing much faster than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: MJO is not cooperating with forecasts for about the last week. It is advancing much faster than forecast. Advancing faster towards doom or a sliver of winter hope? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Phase 8 is on the map! (click the image for the latest update) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Euro mjo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro mjo Not that it really means much, and it is weak at best, but nether the less it is moving towards phase 8/1 during the period I highlighted in this mornings post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not that it really means much, and it is weak at best, but nether the less it is moving towards phase 8/1 during the period I highlighted in this mornings post. Cue someone to come on and say that in March phase 8/1 are not ideal for the mid atlantic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Cue someone to come on and say that in March phase 8/1 are not ideal for the mid atlantic It has to be derated due to sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 24 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Cue someone to come on and say that in March phase 8/1 are not ideal for the mid atlantic We know who that will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Cue someone to come on and say that in March phase 8/1 are not ideal for the mid atlanticPhase 9 is what we need for March 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Kinda too busy at work to look but my seductive skills tell me that the GFS musta looked great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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