StantonParkHoya Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 The upside is the ice in the Arctic is at one of its largest extents in recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Just now, Chris78 said: Lol. Lets hope we got our disaster out of the way for the 2020's Seems like they come without warning. Epic disasters. Few saw this coming looking at our snowfall contest entries. But nothing screamed epic disaster in November. It just evolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 50 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: crankyweatherguy Replying to @ericfisher It died on November 28th, apparently. Will continue the good old "next window for a storm is" song and dance. See if one or two click a little S&E and see what they give. Interior has done just fine "snowfall anomaly" wise. (which is why I hold utter disdain for the metric) What does he mean that he holds snowfall anomaly "in disdain". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Seems like they come without warning. Epic disasters. Few saw this coming looking at our snowfall contest entries. But nothing screamed epic disaster in November. It just evolved. I remember PSU saying the seasonal models were predicting a mostly +AO state and him being puzzed why. Whatever they saw, they were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 +AO's do unfortunately. Mid latitudes in NA and Europe have been on fire most of the winter. Europe has been worse than the eastern half of the conus. This ugly pattern is affecting a giant piece of real estate. Our region is far from being alone. That actually helps me just shrug my shoulders at this point. Won't be the last time this happens either. Every decade since the 70s has had at least one epic disaster.All I heard about was how the-qbo was going to promote blocking. What a crock although it wasnt that negative anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Just came back from laurel highlands and garrett county. Zero snow as of today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 38 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: The upside is the ice in the Arctic is at one of its largest extents in recent history. And still well below the old normal. Not to mention it’s all young ice and not multiyear pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Lets zoom out and objectively analyze what we see. Is this the look of a pattern that produces a snowstorm in the MA? I could make a strong case that this is the exact antithesis of the ideal pattern for snow. But..there is still a chance!!Instead of the ridge bridge...its the trough woe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Lets zoom out and objectively analyze what we see. Is this the look of a pattern that produces a snowstorm in the MA? I could make a strong case that this is the exact antithesis of the ideal pattern for snow. But..there is still a chance!! Instead of the ridge bridge...its the trough woe I think “trough trough” would have been more apropos. Edit: no, no, “trough trench” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And still well below the old normal. Not to mention it’s all young ice and not multiyear pack. I suppose it’s better than the alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And still well below the old normal. Not to mention it’s all young ice and not multiyear pack. Yea, we need to root hard for a ++AO for another decade... said no one EVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 47 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What does he mean that he holds snowfall anomaly "in disdain". He thinks "climo" snowfall for the East coast is a poor representation of ground truth. One big storm can literally be the difference between a great "anomaly" year and a total dud. Lately we tend to be more boom/bust, so we could easily get 3 crap years, then one big year. So maybe an area averages out to 30" a year, but the reality they should be expecting is 10", 5", 20", 15", 70" vs complaining when they don't get 30" every year. PSU has hammered this point as well - a 15" annual average leads to the unrealistic expectation that we need to get 15" or better to be a "good" year. Median would be a better approach than the mean (which is skewed by the occasional HECS or big winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, we need to root hard for a ++AO for another decade... said no one EVER I have no idea how many consecutive such winters it would take to make a noticeable impact on the trend. I’d wag at least 5? Not sure how much summer temps have been involved either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Lol. Lets hope we got our disaster out of the way for the 2020's Lol. I said the same thing recently. DCA's biggest decadal disasters since I've been alive are 11-12 (2.0"), 01-02 (3.2"), 97-98 (.1"), 80-81 (4.5"), and 72-73 (.1") We talk about 01-02 a lot but there are 2 years with only .1". DCA currently has 6 times that amount of those years right now. Rockin it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Remember 97-98 well . The media was nonstop saying the year with no winter in DC lol . But this is just my personal opinion. It only takes 1 nice storm to make a winter memorable. Just unoI'm going to guess 97-98 had more teases than this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Remember 97-98 well . The media was nonstop saying the year with no winter in DC lol . But this is just my personal opinion. It only takes 1 nice storm to make a winter memorable. Just uno I'm going to guess 97-98 had more teases than this year Did it? Now I was only 7 so I don't remember a bunch, but from what I've heard...there was a whole lot of nothin', lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Did it? Now I was only 7 so I don't remember a bunch, but from what I've heard...there was a whole lot of nothin', lol There were like 3 monster coastals That gave us all rain and snow only for the high Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 97-98 was a very active winter for storms in Jan. and Feb. in particular. Several genuine Miller A types if memory serves me right. Ocean City had massive problems with erosion that winter. Problem is they were rain producers for the most part. I still managed to get 16.5" of snow for the winter including a 7" storm on March 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 42 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: He thinks "climo" snowfall for the East coast is a poor representation of ground truth. One big storm can literally be the difference between a great "anomaly" year and a total dud. Lately we tend to be more boom/bust, so we could easily get 3 crap years, then one big year. So maybe an area averages out to 30" a year, but the reality they should be expecting is 10", 5", 20", 15", 70" vs complaining when they don't get 30" every year. PSU has hammered this point as well - a 15" annual average leads to the unrealistic expectation that we need to get 15" or better to be a "good" year. Median would be a better approach than the mean (which is skewed by the occasional HECS or big winter). The "ground truth" of what? Does he mean that more frequent good years are holding up the mean while the median is steadily declining? If so, he's probably right. Should be easy to parse the numbers if one has the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Sparky said: 97-98 was a very active winter for storms in Jan. and Feb. in particular. Several genuine Miller A types if memory serves me right. Ocean City had massive problems with erosion that winter. Problem is they were rain producers for the most part. I still managed to get 16.5" of snow for the winter including a 7" storm on March 3. It was a mega-Nino. Plenty of precipitation but the Nino enso overwhelmed the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Dr no once said yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: Dr no once said yes Damnit ji you made me bat an eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: If memory serves me the op Gfs showed only 3-6 inches till game time lol. Epic fail by that model for that Hecs . That was a helluva storm for the northern tier. Many of us got 2 feet plus and that ull passage in the evening was spectacular snow rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Dr no once said yes Now that's just wrong man, lol WHY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 That was a helluva storm for the northern tier. Many of us got 2 feet plus and that ull passage in the evening was spectacular snow rates.Got 20 inches out of it. That winter was so active that they actually didn’t cancel school right away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: And still well below the old normal. Not to mention it’s all young ice and not multiyear pack. Can you define old normal? Do mean in the last 200 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, tcutter said: Can you define old normal? Do mean in the last 200 years? If he is referring to the chart that Bobchill posted, it is the 1981-2010 period. This year has just started to sneak into the bottom of the interdecile range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 30 minutes ago, Ji said: Dr no once said yes That’s not right brother. Look at that max over my house. I need a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Now that's just wrong man, lol WHY?Sleet prevented leesburg from a hecs...20 inches instead of 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 18"+ is a Hecs in my book 2014 is never mentioned with the 79 83 93 96 2003 2010 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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