February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[clskinsfan]

5 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Out 522N.  Just NW of Lake Holiday.

Hopefully I did not buy property in another precip shadow desert.  

At least I got an extra 260' elevation. 

Unbelievably, we got beat- out on a 2000' property in Linden.  We got a lot more land with this place though and being NW offers some advantages too at times.  The prospect of returning home was appealing to me, but the real disappointment is losing out on that elevation.  Summer days are 6 -7 degrees cooler up there and snow hangs on for far longer.

Oh man. That will be a night and day difference for you in a normal winter. That is close to my hood. It is just that this winter sucks so bad for everyone.

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Oh man. That will be a night and day difference for you in a normal winter. That is close to my hood. It is just that this winter sucks so bad for everyone.

Music to my ears!

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Alright Bob and PSU tell me why it can't happen....

Anything “can” happen. It just probably won’t.  Like asking why some player won’t hit a full court shot at the buzzer. Could he...sure. Will he...ummm

 The whole mid latitudes are warm all across the northern hemisphere. Fast progressive zonal flow.  It would be the ultimate needle thread in a bad pattern.   It’s unlikely. 

But flukes can happen.  You should be asking how “could” it. I noticed the runs that had snow yesterday were creating a very odd anomalous setup in which the NAO became so positive that the PV expands down into the 50/50 space enough to create some suppression and there is just enough ridging across southern Canada that a discreet wave cuts across under. 

Now could that hypothetically physically possibly happen?  Yes. But almost everytime we see a setup long range and say...that is really weird or convoluted it ends up not happening. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Anything “can” happen. It just probably won’t.  Like asking why some player won’t hit a full court shot at the buzzer. Could he...sure. Will he...ummm

 The whole mid latitudes are warm all across the northern hemisphere. Fast progressive zonal flow.  It would be the ultimate needle thread in a bad pattern.   It’s unlikely. 

But flukes can happen.  You should be asking how “could” it. I noticed the runs that had snow yesterday were creating a very odd anomalous setup in which the NAO became so positive that the PV expands down into the 50/50 space enough to create some suppression and there is just enough ridging across southern Canada that a discreet wave cuts across under. 

Now could that hypothetically physically possibly happen?  Yes. But almost everytime we see a setup long range and say...that is really weird or convoluted it ends up not happening. 

Now is this similar to what the other models (outside of the Euro that nailed the actual outcome) were doing with this week's rainer at first? (or was that some other convoluted setup)

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now is this similar to what the other models (outside of the Euro that nailed the actual outcome) were doing with this week's rainer at first? (or was that some other convoluted setup)

I never paid that much attention because I was 99% sure that had no chance. For a hot minute guidance was showing perfect timing between two waves and a lobe of the tpv dropping in front of the second wave to suppress it. That was so complicated I didn’t waste any time because there was little chance we would get all those moving parts to line up like that imo. 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I never paid that much attention because I was 99% sure that had no chance. For a hot minute guidance was showing perfect timing between two waves and a lobe of the tpv dropping in front of the second wave to suppress it. That was so complicated I didn’t waste any time because there was little chance we would get all those moving parts to line up like that imo. 

 

And another question...What is this biggest "thread the needle"/fluke storm we every got in a completely hostile pattern?

[Ji]

And another question...What is this biggest "thread the needle"/fluke storm we every got in a completely hostile pattern?

Just about every time it snows

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And another question...What is this biggest "thread the needle"/fluke storm we every got in a completely hostile pattern?

The pv over Greenland is so expansive it creates a trough into the 50:50 region creating just enough confluence to our north to get a wave under us. It’s an odd setup. Odd usually doesn’t work out so don’t waste too much time worrying about it. 

[psuhoffman]

About to board my next flight. Hopefully when I land everyone will be talking about the epic HH run. 

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

About to board my next flight. Hopefully when I land everyone will be talking about the epic HH run. 

Hope you are going somewhere that has winter.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Hope you are going somewhere that has winter.  

I think he is returning from winter....to this.

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think he is returning from winter....to this.

Yeesh.  That’s sad.  Ready for this winter to end so we can get closer to next winter. 

[CAPE]

HH leaves the main southern energy behind this run. Big 1042 high overwhelms lol.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

HH leaves the main southern energy behind this run. Big 1042 high overwhelms lol.

I'll take it at this range...lol That high is in the usual cutter zone!

[CAPE]

I think we all know this will fail one way or another. Its just how we roll this "winter".

[Weather Will]

Perhaps it will fail, but It would appear that late next week may provide us with enough cold air.  Now we need the southern stream to cooperate.  I will keep watching like everyone else.

[Bob Chill]

51 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And another question...What is this biggest "thread the needle"/fluke storm we every got in a completely hostile pattern?

The big flukes usually involve a closed ULL tracking just right so dynamics overcome the torch at the surface and lack of cold air. Feb 2006 was never below freezing for most but I still got 14 or 16 inches or something like that. If you want a big fluke in this pattern it will require something similar. However, we're in such a crappy temp pattern that even a perfect track bowling ball can be all rain. This year is so persistently bad that even fluke storms will need to be surrounded on all sides by other wierd fluky features. 

Looking across all guidance the only shot we have over the next 10-12 days would be a quick trailer after a front. Air is moving fast so the "cold windows" are literally less than 48 hours long. Miss that by 15 minutes and we get another free car wash

[MountainGeek]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

But flukes can happen.  You should be asking how “could” it. I noticed the runs that had snow yesterday were creating a very odd anomalous setup in which the NAO became so positive that the PV expands down into the 50/50 space enough to create some suppression and there is just enough ridging across southern Canada that a discreet wave cuts across under. 

Perhaps we've been missing a key tellie - when epic failure reaches the ultimate heights and we achieve the fabled +++++++NAO, the sheer weight of the suckage collapses in on itself and becomes a means for us to get snow.  

[Amped]

There's a vortex of no parked over Alaska and another vortex of no parked over Greenland. As if that weren't enough, there is a ridge axis of no over the Gulf of Mexico. We are not squeezing a yes out of this pattern.

[BristowWx]

25 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Perhaps it will fail, but It would appear that late next week may provide us with enough cold air.  Now we need the southern stream to cooperate.  I will keep watching like everyone else.

I think we are going to have to give up this winter.  Add it to our worst winters list and use it for comparisons.  

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I think we are going to have to give up this winter.  Add it to our worst winters list and use it for comparisons.  

Because of my location im ussually optimistic and generally have a legit shot of scoring well into March but I agree this winter is most likely toast. Average highs are on the rise through the rest of February and it will get tougher to get a fluke without  anomalous cold in our region. Nothing says will get legit cold with staying power  into our region any time soon. 

[CAPE]

Lets zoom out and objectively analyze what we see. Is this the look of a pattern that produces a snowstorm in the MA? I could make a strong case that this is the exact antithesis of the ideal pattern for snow.

But..there is still a chance!!

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Lets zoom out and objectively analyze what we see. Is this the look of a pattern that produces a snowstorm in the MA? I could make a strong case that this is the exact antithesis of the ideal pattern for snow.

But..there is still a chance!!

Ussually patterns arent stable for this long and dont lock in for 3 months at a time but some how we managed to do it for basically the entire meteorological winter lol.

I guess thats how you get 01/02 type of winters.

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Lets zoom out and objectively analyze what we see. Is this the look of a pattern that produces a snowstorm in the MA? I could make a strong case that this is the exact antithesis of the ideal pattern for snow.

But..there is still a chance!!

The MJO forecasts have been a little off the past few days. The current wave is advancing faster than the models are predicting. I wonder if we might see an abrupt shift in the long range because of it. Grasping

[MountainGeek]

 

Paging @WxWatcher007....you should be planning to work lots of overtime in the near future.....

 

 

crankyweatherguy

Replying to @ericfisher

It died on November 28th, apparently. Will continue the good old "next window for a storm is" song and dance. See if one or two click a little S&E and see what they give. Interior has done just fine "snowfall anomaly" wise. (which is why I hold utter disdain for the metric)

 

 

crankyweatherguy Retweeted

 

 

 

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[Weather Will]

18Z GEFS is the new Dr. No.  Will look at EURO at 4:30.

[MountainGeek]

I think the persistent AK vortex and associated record cold is another interesting indicator of the overall pattern and likely results. Based on typical wavelengths/troughs/ridges, there seems to be a significant association between that and a mild/warm eastern US. I think the most recent year we had a similar persistent record AK cold was 2012-2013. That year didn't go so well for us either.....although NW did get pasted with mashed potatoes in March. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

23 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

I think the persistent AK vortex and associated record cold is another interesting indicator of the overall pattern and likely results. Based on typical wavelengths/troughs/ridges, there seems to be a significant association between that and a mild/warm eastern US. I think the most recent year we had a similar persistent record AK cold was 2012-2013. That year didn't go so well for us either.....although NW did get pasted with mashed potatoes in March. 

I’ve never looked at a temp anomaly map and seen Alaska colder than normal and it not be a crap pattern here

[Bob Chill]

41 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Ussually patterns arent stable for this long and dont lock in for 3 months at a time but some how we managed to do it for basically the entire meteorological winter lol.

I guess thats how you get 01/02 type of winters.

+AO's do unfortunately. Mid latitudes in NA and Europe have been on fire most of the winter. Europe has been worse than the eastern half of the conus. This ugly pattern is affecting a giant piece of real estate. Our region is far from being alone. That actually helps me just shrug my shoulders at this point. Won't be the last time this happens either. Every decade since the 70s has had at least one epic disaster.

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

+AO's do unfortunately. Mid latitudes in NA and Europe have been on fire most of the winter. Europe has been worse than the eastern half of the conus. This ugly pattern is affecting a giant piece of real estate. Our region is far from being alone. That actually helps me just shrug my shoulders at this point. Won't be the last time this happens either. Every decade since the 70s has had at least one epic disaster.

Lol. Lets hope we got our disaster out of the way for the 2020's