stormtracker Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 GFS likes next Friday for some reason. It dropped it at 6z, but it keeps showing up on the other runs and now again at 12z. Probably a mirage, but what else we got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS likes next Friday for some reason. It dropped it at 6z, but it keeps showing up on the other runs and now again at 12z. Probably a mirage, but what else we got? Exactly...rather chase a unicorn at under Day 10 then punt the rest of February waiting for a pattern change...the EPS control at OZ got my attention. I know everyone says it is just another ensemble member, but it means the GFS is not completely out to lunch...at least until the 12Z EURO shows it to be partly cloudy and in the 60s late next week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS likes next Friday for some reason. It dropped it at 6z, but it keeps showing up on the other runs and now again at 12z. Probably a mirage, but what else we got? Well, if it stays on for the next 2 days, we might have something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Probably a mirage, but what else we got? Apparently a lot of unfrozen ground, mud, and water. If we tracked mud this would be the 09-10 of mud winters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Well, if it stays on for the next 2 days, we might have something 2 days and I wouldn't even flinch. This year want to see it on the 18 Feb run to be enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not for long. By Saturday morning you'll be chopping it up in mud ice cubes . That's true. If I wasn't such a cold weather baby riding bikes I would take advantage but man, cold like this weekend steals all the fun out of riding. On topic: I agree with everyone who thinks something can pop up out of nowhere when the PNA ridge builds. No idea if it's really going to build and even less of an idea of whether or not it sticks around for more than a few days. During +AO/NAO periods the most common theme for surprise events is a +PNA. We'll know soon enough but for now my expectations remain quite low (like everybody). If it works, great and if not, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Well, if it stays on for the next 2 days, we might have something Narrator: It won't 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Narrator: It won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 GEFS on board......not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GEFS on board......not. There are like 2 members that have a suppressed wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS for late next week.....not saying it is correct, but it is something to track under Day 10 that has been pretty consistent with this model. Let's see if we see it on more than the EURO control at 12Z. This will not verify verbatim, but the fact the model keeps trying to develop a storm to our SE needs to be watched. We will all get killed by flying pigs twice before we catch a break in that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Agreed there is no support in 12Z GEFS. Too bad it looks like we punt another week of February. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Euro says this will be the same ol track every storm has taken the past 6 weeks 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Euro says this will be the same ol track every storm has taken the past 6 weeks We already know what the truth is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I don’t know why some have said the pac ridge hasn’t been a consistent problem. Just because it didn’t stay at +5 stdv the whole time it’s still been there pretty consistently since early December. Since Dec 1 and next 30 days on euro weeklies I guess I didn’t articulate my point that well though. When we see a very anomalous ridge there along with a very strong +AO in January it’s very likely both persist to some degree. That doesn’t mean both stay at crazy anomalous levels the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We already know what the truth is What I don't understand is why the other models fell for the trick last week, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 WB 12Z EPS....Could someone explain why this mean looks so bad for next Friday? Seems south of the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 WB 12zEPS....about 11 Members give us snow for late next week. Hug the HECS on 40.....not over yet for late next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12zEPS....about 11 Members give us snow for late next week. Hug the HECS on 40.....not over yet for late next week. Narrator: It is 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12zEPS....about 11 Members give us snow for late next week. Hug the HECS on 40.....not over yet for late next week. #40 more like BECS. If I was laying down money though, #33 for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12zEPS....about 11 Members give us snow for late next week. Hug the HECS on 40.....not over yet for late next week. Plus 6-7 members with accumulating snow to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Since I am already irritating everyone: I will take the 10-30 % chance depending on where you live for late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Alright Bob and PSU tell me why it can't happen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Since I am already irritating everyone: I will take the 10-30 % chance depending on where you live for late next week. When snowshoe has only a 30% chance I think we know where we all stand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Alright Bob and PSU tell me why it can't happen.... It can. Confluent flow between 2 h5 ridges FTW. We score this way all the time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Look, I am not an expert, but these are the best looking snow maps we have had under 10 days on EPS in over a month and it is the only game in town for the next two weeks. At least until 0Z tonight we have a seat in the cheap seats of the snow bowl stadium. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Look, I am not an expert, but these are the best looking snow maps we have had under 10 days on EPS in over a month and it is the only game in town for the next two weeks. At least until 0Z tonight we have a seat in the cheap seats of the snow bowl stadium. its not really inside 10 days. And we have seen better snow maps in the 7-10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Its the same old broken record. Fleeting (marginal) cold with a possible storm developing in the southern plains. There is decent cold high pressure to the NE on this panel with some CAD, but its on the move. It's another thread the needle tease that will deteriorate in another few model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 21 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Look, I am not an expert, but these are the best looking snow maps we have had under 10 days on EPS in over a month and it is the only game in town for the next two weeks. At least until 0Z tonight we have a seat in the cheap seats of the snow bowl stadium. You can't just base it off of "best looking snow maps". You have to look at the pattern we are in which is not conducive for snow but that also doesn't mean there couldn't be a favorable window around that time that can produce but it's very doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 51 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Narrator: It is Ha! That's what the subtitles said, too, in various languages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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