February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No storm on the 6z gfs

There has never been any support on the ens. The advertised h5 pattern looks terrible for that period.

Might be an opening around the 25th or so. Way out there.

[osfan24]

Gonna be time to open that March thread pretty soon.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There has never been any support on the ens. The advertised h5 pattern looks terrible for that period.

Might be an opening around the 25th or so. Way out there.

March 25th?

[MD Snow]

Any hope on the eps this morning? I only have access to TT maps. 

GEFS and GEPS continue to knock down the the SE ridge in the next 11-13 days. GEPS knocks it down as early as Feb, 22. GEFS does it around Sun/Mon Feb, 23-24. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Any hope on the eps this morning? I only have access to TT maps. 

GEFS and GEPS continue to knock down the the SE ridge in the next 11-13 days. GEPS knocks it down as early as Feb, 22. GEFS does it around Sun/Mon Feb, 23-24. 

EPS knocks down the eastern ridge, but the problem is the dominant feature remains the AK vortex. No real cold around, which has been the issue all winter. GEFS is the only one of the 3 that has a 'decent' look and some chilly air in the LR. The 6z run actually starts to look decent up top. The GEPS and esp the EPS aren't having any of that though, and for the most part our source region remains flooded with mild Pacific air.

[CAPE]

This says it all. All of the other key teleconnections are in the wrong phase as well. PNA flirts with neutral then goes back negative.

[MD Snow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS knocks down the eastern ridge, but the problem is the dominant feature remains the AK vortex. No real cold around, which has been the issue all winter. GEFS is the only one of the 3 that has a 'decent' look and some chilly air in the LR. The 6z run actually starts to look decent up top. The GEPS and esp the EPS aren't having any of that though, and for the most part our source region remains flooded with mild Pacific air.

Yeah. If we could somehow knock the eastern ridge down before the beginning of March and get a few LPC's to ride under us, we'd at least have a chance at something. 

On a separate note, I'll be keeping any eye on next Tuesday. GFS and even the CMC to a lesser extent give a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region on Sunday. By the time our next system is moving in, there's still enough cold air around to provide some frozen. HPC seems to be in a decent location at onset. Something to keep an eye on anyway. Verbatim would be a quick snow/sleet/rain changeover as the HPC quickly departs. 

[dallen7908]

EPS 15-day snowfall mean is at or near its seasonal low 0.5" for College Park.

The GEFS shows an improved EPO beginning around the 25th.  EPS shows a positive EPO throughout. - no source of cold air

The NAO becomes less positive on both the GEFS and EPS. 

The AO stays very positive on the EPS and positive on the GEFS - cold air bottled up to our north

As noted above, the PNA becomes neutral starting around the 23rd. - fewer days in the mid 50s

[RickinBaltimore]

36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

March 25th?

I'm going to DC for the Blues game on March 24th. Get ready for a freaking Nor'Easter that day. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

EPS 15-day snowfall mean is at or near its seasonal low 0.5" for College Park.

The GEFS shows an improved EPO beginning around the 25th.  EPS shows a positive EPO throughout. - no source of cold air

The NAO becomes less positive on both the GEFS and EPS. 

The AO stays very positive on the EPS and positive on the GEFS - cold air bottled up to our north

As noted above, the PNA becomes neutral starting around the 23rd. - fewer days in the mid 50s

The bottom line lol.

With climo "normal" temps on the rise over the next couple weeks and no mechanism to deliver anomalous cold, there will still be plenty of days in the 50s.

[MD Snow]

With most if not all telleconnections not on our side, i foresee 3 possible ways to score something moving forward. 

1. Something on the front end. 

2. A shortwave that is hard to model outside of 72hrs. Similar to what northern Georgia received on saturday. 

3. A trailing wave riding a front. Similar to what the gfs showed yesterday. 

February, is still prime climo in these parts and it’s easier to score a fluke similar to the ones mentioned above. However, without telleconnectons on our side, as we get closer and enter March, it becomes very difficult to score even on a fluke. Especially with no real cold air source. Just some thoughts. 

[frd]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This says it all. All of the other key teleconnections are in the wrong phase as well. PNA flirts with neutral then goes back negative.

 

Pretty much the same back ground state since late December, meanwhile the research about the warm West Pac and its role on super charging the jet continues, and is making me a believer. Routine records being set for jet speed across the NH while the vortex remains coupled and strong. 

No way to weaken it in the background state we are in.  March looks less hopeful now, and I feel it averages 1 to 2 degrees above normal .  

Also, learned during this winter not to trust at all the GEFS when it comes to vortex weakening,  and the CFS is totally unreliable and useless.  Also, many false hopes could have been avoided if the new GFS was not rushed into action, as it still had a very serious issue with temps and because of that false hope digital snow forecasts galore. Plus, the Euro Control portrays snowfall a few times this winter in the Northern Mid Atlantic when it was not supported by its ensembles or the OP.   

 

 

  

 

 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Pretty much the same back ground state since late December, meanwhile the research about the warm West Pac and its role on super charging the jet continues, and is making me a believer. Routine records being set for jet speed across the NH while the vortex remains coupled and strong. 

No way to weaken it in the background state we are in.  March looks less hopeful now, and I feel it averages 1 to 2 degrees above normal .  

Also, learned during this winter not to trust at all the GEFS when it comes to vortex weakening,  and the CFS is totally unreliable and useless.  Also, many false hopes could have been avoided if the new GFS was not rushed into action, as it still had a very serious issue with temps and because of that false hope digital snow forecasts galore. Plus, the Euro Control portrays snowfall a few times this winter in the Northern Mid Atlantic when it was not supported by its ensembles or the OP.   

 

 

  

 

 

My understanding of the control run is that it's essentially an unperturbed ensemble- it has the same initial conditions as the op, but is run at a lower resolution like the other ensemble members. Not surprising then that it could occasionally produce a different outcome than both the higher res op, and the perturbed ensemble members.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I am moving (bye bye Stephens City) on March 3 and 4.  If there is any chance of a winter storm this year, then it is likely to happen then.

Of course, it's far more likely that we just continue to add to our 35F rain totals during those 2 days.

Hoping for sunny and 50F.

[Solution Man]

33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The bottom line lol.

With climo "normal" temps on the rise over the next couple weeks and no mechanism to deliver anomalous cold, there will still be plenty of days in the 50s.

February showers bring March flowers

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I am moving (bye bye Stephens City) on March 3 and 4.  If there is any chance of a winter storm this year, then it is likely to happen then.

Of course, it's far more likely that we just continue to add to our 35F rain totals during those 2 days.

Hoping for sunny and 50F.

Where to?

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My understanding of the control run is that it's essentially an unperturbed ensemble- it has the same initial conditions as the op, but is run at a lower resolution like the other ensemble members. Not surprising then that it could occasionally produce a different outcome than both the higher res op, and the perturbed ensemble members.

Was just about to post something similar. Control's value is in the medium range when it either agrees or doesn't agree with the op. Other than that it's just another ens member

[frd]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My understanding of the control run is that it's essentially an unperturbed ensemble- it has the same initial conditions as the op, but is run at a lower resolution like the other ensemble members. Not surprising then that it could occasionally produce a different outcome than both the higher res op, and the perturbed ensemble members.

Makes sense, I know Bob pointed out a few days ago how the control seems to regularly spit out snow storms for our area. Just interesting to note. 

Another cool seasonal repeating  phenomenon, and I think this goes back to last winter as well,  the under modeled SE ridge and expansive WAR and how storms always seem to trend NW in time and the scarcity, for the most part, of suppressed systems.   Repeating theme, 20 % coastal huger, 70 % cutter and at times a  suppressed system 10 %  .  % are estimated on my part. 

The seasonal models forecasting  of an active STJ was correct but the lack of cold and blocking had always guaranteed rain versus snow.

Lastly I believe a record sub sonic flight was set this weekend at an average speed of over 800 mph shaving 1 hour and 17  minutes off a flight leaving maybe NYC and going across the pond. That is remarkable, sorry I can not recall the exact departure and arrival locations.   

Next up is watching the Atlantic  Basin ahead of the hurricane season and the East Coast SST profile. Might be an early beach season if Spring is not cold. 

 

[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Was just about to post something similar. Control's value is in the medium range when it either agrees or doesn't agree with the op. Other than that it's just another ens member

Yeah to me it's value would be to act as a 'check' on the op, where the op could go off on a tangent due to the higher resolution.

[Bob Chill]

@frd the nw trend from med/long range has been happening for years. Especially when there's no blocking. However, it works both ways. The 2013-15 stretch had an unusual # of south trends from that range. The key is to identify the recurring pattern and use it as a mental adjustment to nwp output. This year is a no brainer considering how terrible tne LW pattern has been.

Eta: i wouldnt say the control has a tendency with storms. I only post it when there is one. Lol

[dallen7908]

46 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The bottom line lol.

With climo "normal" temps on the rise over the next couple weeks and no mechanism to deliver anomalous cold, there will still be plenty of days in the 50s.

I stand corrected. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Where to?

Out 522N.  Just NW of Lake Holiday.

Hopefully I did not buy property in another precip shadow desert.  

At least I got an extra 260' elevation. 

Unbelievably, we got beat- out on a 2000' property in Linden.  We got a lot more land with this place though and being NW offers some advantages too at times.  The prospect of returning home was appealing to me, but the real disappointment is losing out on that elevation.  Summer days are 6 -7 degrees cooler up there and snow hangs on for far longer.

[HighStakes]

11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Out 522N.  Just NW of Lake Holiday.

Hopefully I did not buy property in another precip shadow desert.  

At least I got an extra 260' elevation. 

Unbelievably, we got beat- out on a 2000' property in Linden.  We got a lot more land with this place though and being NW offers some advantages too at times.  Although the prospect of returning home was appealing to me.

Maybe by you moving it will change everyone's luck.

Congrats on your new property.

[Stormpc]

Congratulations NPZ!!

I'm very happy for you. And for us. Looked at the annual Virginia precipitation map and you just moved to the driest region in all of the state. Even dryer than Stephens City. I can't wait till you post tumbleweeds again.

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Maybe by you moving it will change everyone's luck.

Congrats on your new property.

 

9 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Congratulations NPZ!!

I'm very happy for you. And for us. Looked at the annual Virginia precipitation map and you just moved to the driest region in all of the state. Even dryer than Stephens City. I can't wait till you post tumbleweeds again.

 

Thanks to you both.  But curse you, Stormpc!

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Out 522N.  Just NW of Lake Holiday.

Hopefully I did not buy property in another precip shadow desert.  

At least I got an extra 260' elevation. 

Unbelievably, we got beat- out on a 2000' property in Linden.  We got a lot more land with this place though and being NW offers some advantages too at times.  The prospect of returning home was appealing to me, but the real disappointment is losing out on that elevation.  Summer days are 6 -7 degrees cooler up there and snow hangs on for far longer.

You’re gonna be happy there. Looking to move out that way myself.

[snownut]

41 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

 

Thanks to you both.  But curse you, Stormpc!

Awesome !  Yes, good bye Stephens City.  My oldest brother still lives there on Whyte Avenue.  Spent many summer days on the lake as a kid and wired many of the homes there. 

[ryanconway63]

GFS sure has been hinting at a potential storm late next week....Im sure this will work out exactly as we want it.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS for late next week.....not saying it is correct, but it is something to track under Day 10 that has been pretty consistent with this model.  Let's see if we see it on more than the EURO control at 12Z.  This will not verify verbatim, but the fact the model keeps trying to develop a storm to our SE needs to be watched.

 

[Interstate]

It is very close to a nice run again