Weather Will Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 12z EPS has about 8 members with snow during the 20-21 period, few flush, few north, few south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: 12z EPS has about 8 members with snow during the 20-21 period, few flush, few north, few south. LOL. Any other year and we'd laugh at that. This year? I say "wow"! That's almost a 1 and 5 chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wheres @Maestrobjwa? Are we too late?? Who knows...get back to me if it's still there on Friday, lol (and even then I'll only bat half of an eye...) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Who knows...get back to me if it's still there on Friday, lol (and even then I'll only bat half of an eye...) Because you wont be checking every run looking for signs of life? Cmon now. Everyone here is checking every day every run even if they don’t post. It’s what we do. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Because you wont be checking every run looking for signs of life? Cmon now. Everyone here is checking every day every run even if they don’t post. It’s what we do. Well, I don't think it's worth it now until at LEAST 7 days out...am interested in why Cranky likes that period of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well, I don't think it's worth it now until at LEAST 7 days out...am interested in why Cranky likes that period of time though. We’ll get one before April. Mark my words we will get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB EPS at the end of run. At least the SE ridge is breaking down. NAO going to neutral perhaps. Not sure about the Pacific but if you loop it to the end signs the AK vortex is weakening. I have not given up on March yet. Whew! That oughtta save us from 90s in March at least!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well, I don't think it's worth it now until at LEAST 7 days out...am interested in why Cranky likes that period of time though. Because he needs to keep his snow weenie followers believing in something. These dudes are all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Because he needs to keep his snow weenie followers believing in something. These dudes are all the same. Nah I think he's kinda the opposite...he actually doesn't do weather hype (he even says it on the top of his Twitter page, lol) I follow him on Twitter--he's pretty straightforward, imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Nah I think he's kinda the opposite...he actually doesn't do weather hype (he even says it on the top of his Twitter page, lol) I follow him on Twitter--he's pretty straightforward, imo A lot of times with cranky it seems to me like he’s almost rooting against snow. He calls out people on Twitter all the time for hyping stuff up they shouldn’t really be. A pessimist who really knows his stuff showing optimism for a timeframe to me is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 This period just screams potential. What a look. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: This period just screams potential. What a look. Yes potential for early grass cutting. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2020 Author Share Posted February 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This period just screams potential. What a look. LOL, dude you’re killing me lately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This period just screams potential. What a look Yea man! I like it. Looks like great trail riding potential. Just need to dry out from the foot of rain first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea man! I like it. Looks like great trail riding potential. Just need to dry out from the foot of rain first Some of us need consistency in our lives. This pattern definitely giveth in that dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This period just screams potential. What a look. Cold air source is solid for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Some of us need consistency in our lives. This pattern definitely giveth in that dept. We've often joked over the years saying "hey, at least it's not 2001-02". If something doesn't break right then 01-02 will be replaced with 19-20. Lol. The real kick in the nads this year is having literally one of the best non-nino southern streams I've ever seen. A dry spring wouldn't surprise me either. Which is good imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cold air source is solid for once. Finally! We got this. Cranky likes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We've often joked over the years saying "hey, at least it's not 2001-02". If something doesn't break right then 01-02 will be replaced with 19-20. Lol. The real kick in the nads this year is having literally one of the best non-nino southern streams I've ever seen. A dry spring wouldn't surprise me either. Which is good imho. The parade of NW tracking storms has been unreal. Is KC close to a snowfall record? Seems like they have been in a sweet spot this winter. eta- I just checked and it looks like my perception is a bit off lol. Looks like they are just a tad above normal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 The parade of NW tracking storms has been unreal. Is KC close to a snowfall record? Seems like they have been in a sweet spot this winter. eta- I just checked and it looks like my perception is a bit off lol. Looks like they are just a tad above normal there.Kc sucks for snow no matter what the pattern is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: 12z EPS has about 8 members with snow during the 20-21 period, few flush, few north, few south. If the Euro really starts to jump onboard with the 21st potential over the next few days I may become a believer, maybe. Keep expectations low, very low especially at this distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cold air source is solid for once. I would have to say this would not support snow. Just throwing that out there lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Hope the euro MJO is correct. Winter might make a comeback at the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hope the euro MJO is correct. Winter might make a comeback at the end of the month. I'm not going to hold my breath on that as the MJO forecasts have been abysmal this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I noticed an interesting graphic on the Arctic Oscillation page for Wikipedia. This is a counterpart to the graphic that Don S. posted for extreme AO events, but generalized for all AO. So I notice that basically the only midlatitude land which isn't on fire is the western CONUS, just like we have seen this season. But I also notice the mean warm anomaly north of Hawaii. So seems like more evidence that the Pacific Doom Blob of January wasn't just coincidental with the continuing pain that is the AO this year. The PDB is perhaps just a manifestation of the +++++++++++++++AO. And I am probably not telling anybody anything they didn't already know, but it struck me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 46 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I noticed an interesting graphic on the Arctic Oscillation page for Wikipedia. This is a counterpart to the graphic that Don S. posted for extreme AO events, but generalized for all AO. So I notice that basically the only midlatitude land which isn't on fire is the western CONUS, just like we have seen this season. But I also notice the mean warm anomaly north of Hawaii. So seems like more evidence that the Pacific Doom Blob of January wasn't just coincidental with the continuing pain that is the AO this year. The PDB is perhaps just a manifestation of the +++++++++++++++AO. And I am probably not telling anybody anything they didn't already know, but it struck me. There is a correlation. Plus while that PDB, as you call it, in January can shift and wax and wane the presence of a very anomalous ridge there at some point in January along with a +++AO strongly predicts a continuance of struggles in February also. You don’t get that strong combo without something to do with the background state forcing likely being hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a correlation. Plus while that PDB, as you call it, in January can shift and wax and wane the presence of a very anomalous ridge there at some point in January along with a +++AO strongly predicts a continuance of struggles in February also. You don’t get that strong combo without something to do with the background state forcing likely being hostile. Depressing yet fascinating. I wish I was an eccentric billionaire who could found an institute devoted solely to studying teleconnections seasonal forcing. As an aside, I also noticed from the graph the strong negative correlation between to anomalies in in the Davis Strait/Baffin Islan/Labrador/SW Greenland area. That is where the PV has been parked much of this winter and I seem to remember showmethesnow mentions this area in a response he posted recently. So apparently when the PV strengthens it tends to get drawn to this area like a moth to flame? Do know why this is? Why isn't it equally like to set up shop over Ellesmere Island or Barrow or Novaya Zemlya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 OZ EPS Control has a storm on the 21st also to our South. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Well, the good news regarding the storm in fantasy land late next week with the 6z gfs, is that it’s not a cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Well, the good news regarding the storm in fantasy land late next week with the 6z gfs, is that it’s not a cutter. No storm on the 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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