Its a Breeze Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: True...I don't know of a another stretch where you could count on a 12" storm every 3-4 years...and a two-foot every 6-7 years. We had been able to time that with a watch...but, barring a bit of a miracle, it looks like that stretch may end this year... And I'm well aware of the battle zone...but even around here...a year like this is particularly rough (and now it's been 4 years since the last big one...and we've only had to shovel once in the last 4 years) Just missed 12" last year (at least in the DC area) with that Jan 12-13 storm (10.3" at DCA.) That's shovelable. Southern burbs won out big with that other storm in Dec. as well. DCA also had a 4"er in March of 2018. Shovelable too no? (with it being the first day of spring and all, can't recall if it melted in a couple hours or not) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12-13 was the standard struggle for us. Tale of 2 halves near the cities. -PNA killed us early but that slowly progressed to pretty decent blocking towards the end and it did sorta pay off. Mar 2013 was just a subtle bad break at the last minute. It was a great setup for WAA precip followed by a closed ULL. The problem was the ULL deepened rapidly down in southern VA and cut off the WAA feed. Then it took a jog SE off the coast of VA beach and we were too far away from the action to get anything sustained the next day. It was a marginal temp situation (common) that could have been a really big event or even a good one as is if it was colder. It was simple reasons though and had nothing to do with the year itself being a disaster. The thing about our region is we are in the battle zone. We can get walloped so it "has the feel" of a big storm town but they simply don't come easy because of all the little things (mostly temps). Near misses and struggles are part of normal daily life here. Always has been since I've been around MD (1972) and always will be. For people that have been around a long time it's been a bit of shock and awe since Jan 2000. We've had quite a few very large events. Way more than any previous period (60s included). If anything, it's unusual and anomalous that we've had so many big storms over the last 20 years. Wasn't Dec 2012 the December where the AO was raging negative but somehow the pattern sucked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Maestro this is simply not true for many here . Just saying in a nice way Lol Yeah I know. Sometimes I forget to specify my home measuring station of BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Wasn't Dec 2012 the December where the AO was raging negative but somehow the pattern sucked? Yep, AK vortex stole our hopes and dreams. Even the -3 AO in March 2013 ended up with significant temp problems. Overall the Pac overwhelmed a typical friendly AO/NAO regime. It made up for it bigly in 2013-15 when the Pac overwhelmed a hostile AO/NAO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Wasn't Dec 2012 the December where the AO was raging negative but somehow the pattern sucked? Pacific looks terrible there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yep, AK vortex stole our hopes and dreams. Even the -3 AO in March 2013 ended up with significant temp problems. Overall the Pac overwhelmed a typical friendly AO/NAO regime. It made up for it bigly in 2013-15 when the Pac overwhelmed a hostile AO/NAO regime. March 2013 kicked off the best 2 year stretch of weather mby has ever seen. And by a country mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yep, AK vortex stole our hopes and dreams. Even the -3 AO in March 2013 ended up with significant temp problems. Overall the Pac overwhelmed a typical friendly AO/NAO regime. It made up for it bigly in 2013-15 when the Pac overwhelmed a hostile AO/NAO regime. Funny thing is if you look at the anomalies in Dec 2010 the Pac and Atlantic were not that different from Dec 2012 but the blocking in 2010 was more west based which likely made the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: All good but what were... BWI amounts March 2018? November 2018 ? Jan Last year ? March 2018: 6.7" (but 3 inches from the storm) November 2018: 1.7" January 2019: 7.8" (but only 4.8" from the storm that gave DC a foot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Man, this place is dead...as it should be. Doesnt really look like any threats to me thru the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 I have been trying to find some glimmers of hope in the LR, and the GEFS has been somewhat teasing the idea of some improvement in the Pac with a possible PNA ridge, but I don't like today's run and the GEPS looks even worse. Looking again like this will be another failed attempt, as the more anomalous +heights are already slipping back into the central Pacific by day 15. EPS has not been enthusiastic at all and has been advertising a stronger AK vortex in the LR. Can see on this panel, 15 days from now, what is running the show. Look familiar? No legit cold even close. Looking more and more like it will be a lucky fluke or bust, maybe in early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 DCA legitimately might not make 1” for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 After looking at the 12z ens runs, I think my glass just went from half full to half empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: DCA legitimately might not make 1” for the season. I don't think D.C. can get another .4 inches....sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 WB EPS at the end of run. At least the SE ridge is breaking down. NAO going to neutral perhaps. Not sure about the Pacific but if you loop it to the end signs the AK vortex is weakening. I have not given up on March yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 32 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Man, this place is dead...as it should be. Doesnt really look like any threats to me thru the end of the month Probably a good time to stop looking at the LR. The likelihood of seeing any meaningful 'favorable' pattern change at this point is probably pretty low. If it's going to snow, it will be some lucky/fluky deal that pops up in the medium range. And yeah, shorter wavelengths might help even with the same general crap pattern. Cant forget to mention that. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Probably a good time to stop looking at the LR. The likelihood of seeing any meaningful 'favorable' pattern change at this point is probably pretty low. If it's going to snow, it will be some lucky/fluky deal that pops up in the medium range. And yeah, shorter wavelengths might help even with the same general crap pattern. Cant forget to mention that. lol. There are a couple of EPS members that bring a shot of snow over us and even to our south. So maybe something will pop up before the end of the month. Looking casually but not expecting anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: There are a couple of EPS members that bring a shot of snow over us and even to our south. So maybe something will pop up before the end of the month. Looking casually but not expecting anything at this point. Yeah I understand that. That panel you posted above is pretty ugly lol. Can't get much worse looking up top than that. Maybe going forward the look will improve, but the odds are not good. This pattern has been locked in. Persistence FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: DCA legitimately might not make 1” for the season. yea, this winter is a dud. still some time for a snowfall, but it's not a good look when we've had rainer after rainer through our prime climo. what can ya do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Lock it up. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, MD Snow said: Lock it up. Yes you never know what can happen in Feb. hey it’s under 300 hr. I got nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, MD Snow said: Lock it up. Has a closed 500 mb low right in the middle of a ridge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Lock it up. Dont you know there is a separate thread for Digital Snow posts??? But yea lock it up for a WINSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, Amped said: Has a closed 500 mb low right in the middle of a ridge. Yup. Haha...GFS showed something similar during this time frame at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, CentralVaNATS said: Dont you know there is a separate thread for Digital Snow posts??? But yea lock it up for a WIN Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk It's not a digital snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 I’m resigning myself to the fact that the PV is comfortable in the Arctic until something unleashes it. It’s so frustrating to have all of this rain all week and then cold and dry by Friday. I’d rather have cold and dry than warm and wet. Maybe we can get a surprise snow like the South had last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Lock it up. The NWS better issue Winter Storm Watches now so we can prepare. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 @crankywxguy who hates everything actually likes this window 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Lock it up. Wheres @Maestrobjwa? Are we too late?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, Ji said: @crankywxguy who hates everything actually likes this window How does Bob Ryan feel about it? “Still no sign..no sign of our first inch of snow so the golden snow shovel is still up for grabs”... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Amped said: Has a closed 500 mb low right in the middle of a ridge. Meteorologically impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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